Can the toast of the fall become the major championship (or elevated event) debutante of the spring? That’s the question when it comes to Tom Kim, winner of two post-Open Championship events on the PGA Tour and individual champion (if there was one) of the Presidents Cup in September.
Kim has captivated pretty much everyone who encountered him with not only his buttery approach shots and deft short game, but an electricity that is rare in the golf world. His aura, it seems, is nearly as singular and nonreplicable as his game.
He is, without question, the best youngest star in golf. The 20-year-old (he won’t be 21 until the U.S. Open at Los Angeles Country Club) is ranked No. 15 in the world and on the radar of even the very best players in the world.
Kim is a bit of an oddity, too. In a world where many of the top young players are making their way with distance and speed, Kim is not that long off the tee. Last year, he didn’t have enough rounds to qualify, but his average drive of 301.1 yards would have been T92 on the PGA Tour, and his club head speed of 110.09 would have ranked 177th. This is not the statistical profile of somebody ranked in the top 20 in the world six months removed from his teenage years.
And yet, the thing Kim does best is perhaps the lost art of winning. He wins a lot. In 81 starts in Official World Golf Ranking events, Kim has eight wins. That’s an enormous number that, while buoyed a bit by playing often on lesser tours, cannot be immediately dismissed because Kim has also won twice in 20 starts on the PGA Tour.
In other words, his winning percentage on the best tour in the world (10%) is actually slightly better than his winning percentage on every other tour in the world (9.8%).
I recently joked that Tom Kim is going to be the richest golfer who has ever lived, which is fun to think about until you realize it actually might not be a joke. The PGA Tour floated a document earlier this year that showed how Jim Furyk (17 wins, one major) would have made more than $600 million in earnings — if his career had started in 2023 — from a variety of different PGA Tour revenue streams.
I’m not saying Kim is going to have Furyk’s career, but if he does, he’s probably going down as the richest golfer of all time (on-course earnings only, of course).
All of this begs the obvious question of just how good Kim can be: What is Tom Kim’s ceiling?
Some incredible comps from Data Golf gets things started: Adam Scott in 2001, Jon Rahm in 2015, Joaquin Niemann in 2019, Sungjae Im in 2018, Jason Day in 2008, and Rickie Fowler in 2009. It also throws in Kevin Na in 2004 and Ryo Ishikawa in 2012.
Though I’m enamored with Kim’s presence and his sense of the moment, I tend to believe he’s a bit overvalued right now. He exceeded his expected win total during the 2021-22 season (two worldwide wins, 0.79 expected wins), and he is doing so again in the 2022-23 season (one win, 0.55 expected wins). This is not everything, but if you dig a little deeper into his profile, it tells a story.
Kim’s problem is going to be ball-striking. He’s an elite iron player — like, really great — but he’s so short off the tee that it’s likely going to prohibit him from truly contending at the biggest events. While Kim is incredibly consistent off the tee — his driving accuracy would have ranked fourth last season if he’d qualified — he has trouble gaining strokes on the field because of his length.
This could change. We saw Matt Fitzpatrick transform his distance through speed training and win a U.S. Open because of it. As Kim is currently constituted, though, he is going to have to have extraordinary putting weeks to win golf tournaments. (He did, for the record, at both the Wyndham Championship and the Shriners in his two victories.) Of the top 150 players in the world who have won at least twice in 2022, Kim is by far the shortest player of that group, according to Data Golf.
Is that sustainable? It might be. A good present-day comp for Kim might be Cam Smith, who is extremely average off the tee and actually gained fewer strokes with his driver than Kim did over the last 12 months (mostly because he’s not as accurate).
If you pull the numbers back to the top 150 players ever over the last 10 years, we get an even better picture. Here are the names that look like Kim: Jim Furyk, Luke Donald, Zach Johnson, Graeme McDowell and Brandt Snedeker with maybe a bit of Jordan Spieth.
This group (outside of Spieth) is a great aim for somebody like Kim. I don’t know if he’s going to have the careers that any of them have had, but he certainly could absolutely have Matt Kuchar’s career. He could have Zach Johnson’s career. Can he go beyond that? Unless things change dramatically — and they might given that he’s 20! — that seems unlikely.
On paper, he may look like Justin Thomas or Rory McIlroy — generational players. But, and not to bum you out because I actually love him, Tom Kim is likely not a generational player.
This has multiple implications for 2023. As the No. 15 player in the world, Kim is probably a bit overvalued. The second, which is related to the first, is that we should consider our expectations of him. Because he won when he did, and because he crushed at the Presidents Cup, some folks are going into this season believing that Kim can (or even will) win three times. However, with the elevated events schedule he’s almost certainly going to play, that’s unlikely.
Kim’s story should be (and is) celebrated. However, will have a much better picture after this season full of expectations and only the big-boy events of just what Tom Kim can be on the PGA Tour.