Rory McIlroy became the No. 1 player in the Official World Golf Rankings for the ninth time in his career in 2022, yet many still considered his year a failure because he did not win one of the four major championships in which he played. McIlroy could have won 15 tournaments, but without moving his major total from four to five, his campaign would have been deemed a disappointment to some. 

Is this fair? I’m not here to debate that. That’s a different topic for a different article for a different day. What I want to discuss is whether this merry-go-round for McIlroy of playing great golf but coming up short in the four events that matter most will ever end.

Will Rory McIlroy, once thought to be a future seven- or eight- (or 10-time?) major winner get back on the proper side of the ledger at one of the four majors in 2023 or at any point beyond that?

Here are two things that are surprising about McIlroy’s career: 1) He hasn’t had that many great chances at major championships (we’ll discuss this in more depth in a moment), and 2) Nearly a decade and a half into his career, he says he feels like he’s searching once again for his first major win.

“My last major championship was before [wife] Erica and I started going out; it was before my ankle injury and my back injury; it was before so many things that are now a part of my life,” McIlroy told Paul Kimmage of the Independent this fall. “I’m almost a different person. And I’ve been reflecting on this for the last couple of months and I think that’s a good thing. I feel like I’m trying to win my first major again, and there’s an enthusiasm and a fire about the chase again.”

This undoubtedly is true. McIlroy is extrinsically motivated, and while an external goal as big as this might be an albatross for some, for McIlroy it lights a flame. The carrot in front of him, it seems, is clearer than it’s been in several years. There is a world in which, perhaps, McIlroy wins multiple batches of major championships.

What’s also true, at least statistically, is that McIlroy is playing the best golf of his entire career. His last 50 rounds have represented, in terms of strokes gained, his best 50-round stretch of all time, including the periods of time in which he won his first four majors.

This leads us back to the first point, which is that McIlroy hasn’t had as many amazing performances at majors as you might have expected. As an aside, he has not had that many close calls, either, and those are categorically different than amazing performances. Before 2022, McIlroy had had a 25% chance to win a major going into the final round just five times in his career. He converted four of those.

In terms of great performances at majors, McIlroy had gained between 4-5 strokes — which is a lot but not an absurd amount — on major fields four times prior to 2022. He won all four majors. Statistically speaking, things had mostly gone his way at the majors when he played good golf (remember, Phil Mickelson once gained 6.6 strokes on a major field and lost). If his four major wins were 50-50 balls, McIlroy had come down with all of them.

This year’s second at the Masters and third at The Open were the two best performances McIlroy has ever had without converting them into wins (4.22 and 3.98 SG respectively).

To go deeper on this, we turn to Data Golf’s expected majors statistic, which shows how many majors you were expected to win based on your major performance in a given year. For example: If you gain 4.5 strokes per round on the field at a major, you are expected to win that major 50% of the time, so your expected major wins number would be 0.5. Add those up based on major performance in a given year, and you get an expected major wins total for that year.

Let’s take a look at McIlroy’s.

This is fascinating. For the first time in his career, McIlroy played well enough to potentially win a major or more and did not do so. Contrast his expected outcome this year with 2022 PGA Champion winner Justin Thomas’, which was 0.11.

In other words, 2022 was the first year of McIlroy’s career in which he’s had an expected win total of greater than 0.1 at the majors and not won one of them. It was — both statistically and anecdotally — the most heartbreaking year of his career when it comes to major championships.

If a great player produces enough expected wins over time, it is, well, expected that he’s going to eventually win. And if you want a glass-half-full view of McIlroy’s year, it comes from his caddie, Harry Diamond. McIlroy said in the Kimmage interview that Diamond is the person who has reminded him of the fact that he’s going to win majors if he continues to play at the clip.

“And it’s obviously a tough loss for him too but he can see the good in it: ‘Rory, you keep doing this and you’re gonna win your majors.’ That was it,” said McIlroy. “‘We’re gonna do this.’ And it was probably something I needed to hear because you can get sucked into that spiral of, ‘It’s been so long … I’ve just had a great opportunity … Am I ever going to do this?'”

Whether McIlroy continues to play at this current clip remains to be seen. But what is nearly definitive is the following: If he does, then he’ll win a fifth major and perhaps more after that. Of the 19 players to put up an expected major total of 0.5 or more in a single year since 2015, 14 of them won major championships. The odds are overwhelmingly in your favor.

Yes, you often still have to close out final rounds, which McIlroy failed to do at The Open in July, but if you’re posting a 0.5 expected major total a year, it’s also possible that one of those is going to be a major where everybody else fades away (think about J.T. at the PGA Championship) and you walk away with a fifth. As always in golf, you can only control what you can control. If McIlroy does next year what he did this year, there might not be a Scottie Scheffler who puts up 4.96 strokes gained per round at Augusta. Hell, there might not be a Cam Smith who posts 4.47 at The Open. Four could become six in an instant.

So while McIlroy’s major drought is about to hit nine years, his renewed desire has some numbers around it, and they’re pointing toward an optimistic 2023. Sure, the famine may never end, but Diamond is right, this kind of play — regardless of what anyone else does — almost certainly means that at some point it will.

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Viktor Hovland held his nerve to see off a spirited challenge from Scottie Scheffler and retain the Hero World Challenge title in the Bahamas.

Scheffler also bogeyed the 18th after his chip from a waste bunker caught the edge of the hole and ran 15 feet past. That left Hovland to celebrate an unexpectedly dramatic two-shot win on 16 under par, after a closing 69.

Hovland had a three-shot lead over Scheffler going into the final round, but set up a nervy finish on Sunday’s final hole after pulling his second shot from an awkward lie on the edge of a bunker into the water, before managing to get up and down for a priceless bogey.

“It’s freaking nerve-racking,” said Hovland. “I was leading by five, I think, after the turn and didn’t play all that great on the back nine, but it was good enough. It made it a little bit exciting, I guess.”

Scheffler, who needed to win to reclaim top spot in the world rankings from Rory McIlroy, momentarily held a share of the lead when the Masters champion followed birdies on the second and fourth by chipping in for eagle on the sixth. However, playing partner Hovland holed from 20 feet on the same hole to edge back in front and Scheffler’s hopes looked to have disappeared with a bogey on the seventh and double bogey on the par-five ninth. Scheffler then kept the pressure on with four birdies on the back nine, which almost paid off on the 18th.

Hovland joins tournament host Tiger Woods (2006-07) as the only players to win back-to-back titles in the limited-field event, which is restricted to just 20 players. Woods was set to play in this year’s event, but pulled out due to a foot injury just days before the tournament.

For the final leaderboard, click here. 

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There was a brief moment in the final round of the 2022 Hero World Challenge when Viktor Hovland was joined atop the leaderboard. When playing competitor Scottie Scheffler holed out for eagle on the par-5 6th, the event’s defending champion was forced to answer, and answer he did.

Converting an opportunity of his own from roughly 15 feet, Hovland carded his second birdie in his opening six holes to remain out in front by a single stroke. Tacking on another birdie on the following hole and rounding out his inner nine with a pair of pars, Hovland saw his lead balloon to as many as five.

While his closest pursuer would change throughout the second nine among Scheffler, Xander Schauffele and Cameron Young, who were making runs ahead of the final pair, Hovland stood pat. A few nervy moments — namely on the 72nd hole — ultimately resulted in a back-nine 36, but was enough for the 25-year-old to finish the week at 16 under and successfully defend his Hero World Challenge crown from a year ago.

“It’s frickin nerve-wracking,” Hovland said on trying to close out a tournament. “I was leading by five after the turn and you’re just never that comfortable. I didn’t play all that great on the back nine but it was good enough.”

Joining only Tiger Woods in winning the Hero World Challenge in back-to-back years, it may now be time to remove Hovland from the best young player of this generation conversation and insert him into the best player in the world debate. Having previously reached as high as world No. 3, he is now seven times a winner worldwide — more than Scheffler, Will Zalatoris, Collin Morikawa and Sam Burns. While his triumphs lack the lore of some of his counterparts, the quantity is nevertheless impressive.

Twice a winner in The Bahamas, twice at Mayakoba, two more in Europe and once in Puerto Rico, it is a kid from Norway who has staked his claim as the king of the tropics. As strong a ball striker you’ll find, consistent improvements around the green combined with the implementation of aim point on the greens make the now world No. 9’s future prospects all the more intriguing.

“I guess we’ll find out,” Hovland said on what this win will do for his 2023 season. “The short career that I’ve had, I’ve tend to play very well later in the year and earlier in the year. The next goal is to try keep playing like this throughout the year. It’s fun to end the year with a win and kind of sit on the couch for a couple weeks with a smile on your face.”

While his demeanor on the golf course and ever-present wide smile may not match the ferociousness of his music selection, perhaps soon it will. An emphatic fist pump following his winning putt gave us a glimmer of this and showed the meaningfulness of finishing atop a 20-man field in The Bahamas. While not a PGA Tour event nor DP World Tour event, it was a tournament filled with the best players in the world and served as a strong reminder that Hovland is firmly among them. Grade: A+

Here are the grades for the rest of the leaderboard at the 2022 Hero World Challenge

2. Scottie Scheffler (-14): What a good ending to what was truly one of the great years in modern PGA Tour history. Though this doesn’t count toward his PGA Tour total of 13 top 10s in 2022, it’s still emblematic of the 12 months Scheffler has put together. Though he’s not technically the best player in the world at this moment, you could (and I probably would) argue that if you look at the last year of golf, nobody on the planet has been better. Grade: A

6. Collin Morikawa (-9): Morikawa didn’t really need a nice week, but a year after he kicked away a chance to take the No. 1 ranking in the world, it was good to see him thrive even if he came up a bit short of his first title of 2022. A confidence-boosting event after an up-and-down year will be useful to Morikawa, who goes into 2023 a bit on the undervalued side. Not much has changed with him, though. He hasn’t fallen off a cliff statistically, nor is he in a bad spot. If anything, public opinion went too far after he won two of his first eight majors and now it has swung too far the other way. This is a good opportunity to buy low on somebody I believe is one of the eight best players in the world. Grade: A-

T8. Jon Rahm (-5): It wasn’t the tournament I expected from Rahm given that he came into the week having been beaten by four players in his last four starts worldwide. Was it a bad week? I don’t know about that. Rahm still tied or beat 12 of the 20 best players in the world this week and goes into 2023 with probably the highest ceiling of anyone not named “McIlroy.” Grade: B-

15. Jordan Spieth (+1): Should we draw some broader conclusion as it relates to Spieth’s 15th place finish this week in the Bahamas? History says no, but also Spieth’s history says no. He finished last at this tournament this time a year ago and went on to have a solid 2022 that included a victory and six top 10s. A bad week for him at the Hero, but it doesn’t change my (always?) bullish outlook for him over the next few months. Grade: D

Tiger Woods (N/A): Big Cat unfortunately did not play in a week in which he was slated to, but it was still awesome to see him cruising around the course, jumping in the booth with Dan Hicks and Paul Azinger to offer commentary and staring down players trying as they tried to somehow hit good shots in front of the best to ever do it. If that’s all we get from Tiger going forward, I’m still going to be a big fan of that dynamic (and perhaps even more so than if he was playing). Grade: A

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Sweden’s Linn Grant ended her first season on the Ladies European Tour with a third placed finish at the Andalucía Costa del Sol Open de España, which was good enough to clinch the 2022 Race to Costa del Sol title.

The money list title was decided at the final event in Spain, with Grant battling alongside compatriot Maja Stark for the number one spot. But it was Grant who came out on top and clinched the title, accumulating 3,624.91 points from 17 events and ultimately, finishing 209.77 points ahead of Stark, with fellow Swede Johanna Gustavsson rounding out the top three.

“I’m very relieved to have beaten Maja, she stressed me out this week and she’s been stressing me out the whole season! I’m very happy to win the Race to Costa del Sol title,” she said. “It was a pleasure to have been able to play in the Costa del Sol region for the season finale and I would like to thank to Costa del Sol Tourist Board for their support.”

Grant also secured the LET Rookie of the Year title back in October and as such is following in the footsteps of Laura Davies, Carlota Ciganda, Esther Henseleit and Atthaya Thitikul by becoming the fifth player to win both titles in the same season.

“It feels so nice to get both titles,” she explained. “Rookie of the Year was a little more straightforward and I knew that was coming but to get this one as well was more of the goal. I’m happy to have played well at the last round in Spain and to win it. They’re all great players and they have gone on to have pretty good careers after winning both titles, I hope to continue on their path as well.”

The 23-year-old began the year with a bang winning the Joburg Ladies Open in her first start on the LET since clinching her card at Q-School last December. From there, Grant recorded two top-10 finishes and one top-15 result but it wasn’t long before she was back in the winner’s circle securing victory at the Mithra Belgian Ladies Open. After a week of rest, the Swedish star then cemented her name in the history books by triumphing at the Volvo Car Scandinavian Mixed – storming to a nine-shot victory and becoming the first woman to win on the DP World Tour.

Five further top-10 finishes throughout the summer – including at the Amundi Evian Championship – came her way before she won again on home soil, this time at the Skaftö Open to record her fourth victory of the year. And Grant’s rapid rise in 2022 has seen her climb from 277 up to 24 in the Rolex Women’s World Golf Rankings.

“I think the Scandinavian Mixed is my standout moment,” she continued. “It was a big event and at home and everything that came with that. Plus, for sure the first title in Joburg because I think that set the standard for the season. I think Maja has had an incredible season and I think it’s been a fun season. It was nice to share this moment with her and this season and I think we will hold hands through our whole careers probably. This is huge for Swedish golf, having Johanna Gustavsson as number three on the rankings.”

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Cameron Smith won the Australian PGA Championship for a third time with a three-shot victory at Royal Queensland Golf Club in Brisbane.

Smith, who was playing in his native country for the first time in three years, held an overnight three-shot lead, but was caught early on the back nine, shortly after the second of two separate suspensions due to thunderstorms, which resulted in more than two hours of play lost.

Three birdies in a five-hole stretch from the 12th saw the 29-year-old reassert his command as a closing three-under-par 68 saw him claim victory in the DP World Tour’s season-opening tournament, which is co-sanctioned with the PGA Tour of Australasia.

Australian Jason Scrivener and Japan’s Ryo Hisatsune finished in a share of second at 11 under after posting rounds of 67 and 65 respectively, while Australian Min Woo Lee was two shots further back in fourth alongside Challenge Tour Graduate John Parry.

An exhausted Smith fought back tears as he credited his grandmother for fuelling the final push to a third Australian PGA Championship and cap a magnificent homecoming. The Open Championship winner admitted there were doubts he had the energy to add to his 2017 and 2018 titles. But in his grandmother Carol, who just completed a second round of chemotherapy, walking all 72 holes beside him, he found his inspiration.

“I can’t believe she did it; everyone was telling her to pace herself but she was out there all day, every day,” Smith said, adding that it was also his father Des’s birthday. “Pretty amazing, inspiring, I don’t know how she did it. When I got back tied [after a bogey on the 11th hole] I really wanted to do it for those two.”

Smith, who joined LIV Golf almost immediately after his Open win at St Andrews, and may yet be prevented from taking part in further DP World Tour co-sanctioned events. A meeting is due to be held in London in February to determine whether the DP World Tour can follow the PGA Tour’s lead in banning LIV golfers who are also members of the DP World Tour from competing in their events.

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