Only three men occupied the top spot in the Official World Golf Rankings in 2022. Switching between a few stars, Rory McIlroy is the player currently holding the position as he regained the title for the ninth time in his career with a victory at The CJ Cup in South Carolina in October. Having relinquished it before, and with the OWGR taking on a relatively new shape, will the Northern Irishman be able to hold on to the pole position for the entirety of 2023, or will someone else usurp him?

This prior year began with Jon Rahm atop the golf world. Beginning his 2022 in impressive fashion, Rahm finished runner-up at the Tournament of Champions and added another podium finish a few weeks later at the Farmers Insurance Open. Tacking on a top-10 result at the WM Phoenix Open, it was that very event which kickstarted Scottie Scheffler’s march to the top.

Beating Patrick Cantlay in a playoff in Phoenix, Scheffler went on to experience a historic run in the spring that included a victory two weeks later at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Making his way through the WGC Match Play, the Texan officially claimed the world No. 1 with his victory in his collegiate backyard of Austin, Texas. 

Adding some breathing room between him and the rest of professional golf, Scheffler notched his first career major championship at The Masters. Four wins in a six-week stretch cemented him as the best player in the world. His status would hold steady with runner-up finishes at the U.S. Open and the Charles Schwab Challenge but began to show cracks in the latter stages of the summer. Unable to convert his 54-hole lead at the Tour Championship into the FedEx Cup crown, Scheffler slowly saw an object grow larger in his rearview mirror. That object? Rory McIlroy. 

His win at East Lake accompanied another at the Canadian Open as well as four top-10 finishes at the major championships. With his victory this past fall in South Carolina, McIlroy completed his trek to the top but nearly gave it up during the winter months. Had Scheffler won the Hero World Challenge, where he ultimately finished second, he would have momentarily regained what he had lost.

With such fluidity in the rankings, 2023 has the potential to see numerous players make meaningful runs towards world No. 1. Previous holders like Scheffler and Rahm pose significant threats to McIlroy, as do Cantlay and Xander Schauffele. Will those closest to McIlroy chase him down or will an outsider similar to Scheffler in 2022 make his mark?

Best potential paths to world No. 1

1. Patrick Cantlay (Current rank: 4)

He reached as high as world No. 3 multiple times throughout 2022 but was never able to crack inside the top two. Cantlay is consistently among the best players in the world, and it may be a change to the PGA Tour schedule which ultimately propels him to new heights. Looking at the OWGR website, there is only one player inside the top 50 (non-LIV division) who has less than 40 official events contributing to their ranking, and that player is Cantlay.

With all the top players likely to play in 13 elevated events, four major championships and a handful of other tournaments, Cantlay’s typical schedule of roughly 20 tournaments a season may become the new norm. If so, it will only aid him as his game remains as sturdy as ever. Posting +2.08 strokes gained per round the last two years, some variance went against him in 2022 as he lost in playoffs at the WM Phoenix Open and RBC Heritage and collected runner-up finishes at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and Shriners Children’s Open. Cantlay is good enough to post a four-win season, and it wouldn’t surprise me if does just that in 2023.

2. Jon Rahm (5)

Beginning this past year as world No. 1, Rahm did all the right things early on, and it looked as if a repeat of his 2021 was on the horizon. Plans were halted when he relinquished his No. 1 ranking at the WGC Match Play, and things went from bad to worse when he dropped out of the top five in the world for the first time in three years. 

Rahm bounced back with three wins in his last 14 worldwide starts of 2022, and while he is technically trending in the wrong direction from a strokes-gained perspective (+2.41 SG per round in 2019, +2.40 in 2020, +2.37 in 2021 and +2.20 in 2022), this year presents a prime bounce back spot. The Spaniard is still the best driver of the golf ball in the world, and over his last five measured tournaments he averaged +1.45 strokes gained putting per round. Unsustainable? Yes. But also potentially a sign of things to come.

3. Scottie Scheffler (2)

Well, he’s the closest to McIlroy to begin 2023 and nearly leapfrogged him had it not been for Viktor Hovland at the Hero World Challenge. Regardless, Scheffler’s downturn in quality after his red-hot spring was primarily a result of his short game. With his putter letting him down more times than not, the 26-year-old was still able to contend on a regular basis, thus displaying just how strong the rest of his game remains.

In his 16 starts since slipping on the green jacket at Augusta National, Scheffler has finished on the podium six times including runner-up finishes at the Charles Schwab Challenge, U.S. Open, Tour Championship and Hero World Challenge. During this stretch, Scheffler averaged -0.35 strokes gained putting per round, and while golf is hardly simple, a return to form on the greens in early 2023 may mean a return to world No. 1.

4. Xander Schauffele (6)

The way in which Schauffele’s peers gush about him and his game should hold weight and in 2022, he finally showcased what they have been preaching about for years. After squandering a 54-hole lead at the WM Phoenix Open for the second consecutive year, Schauffele hit a lull with the low point coming in the form of a rare missed cut at The Masters. 

Since the hiccup at Augusta National, Schauffele has rattled off three wins, four top fives and five additional top-20 finishes in his last 13 tournaments. This is the consistency we should expect to see from the 29-year-old — the consistency which allowed him to post greater than +2.10 strokes gained per round in 13 of his 22 starts in 2022. With consistency comes contention, and if the monkey is truly off his back, the opportunity to reach world No. 1 will come for Schauffele.

5. Justin Thomas (8)

Ask yourself this: Is there a player who, when on, can get it quite like JT? The answer is no. The 15-time winner on the PGA Tour hasn’t racked up wins in bunches the last two seasons, but expect that to change in 2023. His last two victories are the 2021 Players Championship and the 2022 PGA Championship, and while impressive, even Thomas understands that given his caliber, two wins a season should be the bare minimum.

Thomas’ three best strokes gained season were 2020 (+2.27 SG per round; 3 wins), 2018 (+2.27 SG per round; 3 wins) and 2017 (+2.22 SG per round; 5 wins). In 2022, Thomas eeked his way closer to the +2.20 range and posted +2.02 strokes gained per round thanks in part to a solid putting campaign. His typically strong iron play lagged ever so slightly, and should it return to historical levels, Thomas could reign atop the world for the third time in his career.

6. Tony Finau (12)

You know who the 12th-ranked player in the world was at the end of 2021? Scottie Scheffler. It is certainly within the realm of possibilities that Finau could match such a breakout, especially with the manner in which he culminated his 2022. Winning three times in his last seven starts, Finau’s quality shined through after a rough start to his season that included zero top-10 finishes in his first 10 events.

He is the eldest name on this list at the age of 33, but age is just a number; let us not forget that Phil Mickelson didn’t win his first major championship until the age of 34. His rolling strokes gained averages show the potential for him to roll to the world No. 1. Over the last 12 months, he ranks 10th in total strokes gained, fourth the last six months and fourth again over the last three months with only McIlroy, Cantlay and Rahm ahead of him.

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The best player of one generation had to bow out of the Hero World Challenge earlier this week, but the best player of another one, perhaps, leads the golf tournament after Round 1. Tiger Woods looked on from the television booth Thursday as Tom Kim shot a 3-under 69 to co-lead with Sepp Straka, Collin Morikawa and Viktor Hovland after the first day of this stacked tournament in the Bahamas.

Let’s take a look at Kim’s round and who will be chasing him over the next three days at Albany Golf Club.

The leaders

T1. Tom Kim, Viktor Hovland, Collin Morikawa, Sepp Straka (-3): On a windswept day off the Pacific Ocean, ball-strikers shined. And while I’m exaggerating about Kim being the best player of his generation, I might also not be exaggerating. He had the cleanest card of the day with 15 pars and three birdies as he looks for what would be his third win since August.

It’s fair to say that nobody even knew who Tom Kim was eight months (maybe even five months ago), and now he’s on the precipice of having three OWGR wins in the last five months of the year, including an event hosted by Tiger Woods.

“I’m very grateful for it,” he said. “I definitely don’t take it for granted and I’m extremely grateful to be 20 years old and to play on the PGA Tour. “But I’ve worked really hard for it and I’m enjoying every moment out there, so it’s really fun.”

Other contenders

5. Sam Burns (-2)

T6. Tommy Fleetwood, Max Homa (-1)

T9. Tony Finau, Justin Thomas, Xander Schauffele, Scottie Scheffler (E)

As is evident from the scoring on Thursday — which was about as tough as this golf course gets), this board is bunched and there should be a ton of movement on Friday and Saturday going into Sunday. Fleetwood interests me here and not just because he was one of my picks coming into the week. He’s been as hot as anyone in the world over the last few months (three top fives in his last three starts), and he could take some year-end momentum into what I believe could be a monstrous 2023.

J.T.’s card, it should be mentioned, was a beautiful disaster. Six birdies were offset by two bogeys and two doubles. Add it all up, and you get an even-par 72. He’s very much still in the mix.

Morikawa’s redemption

This time last year, Collin Morikawa — who got married recently — took a six-stroke lead into the final round of this event. With a win, he would have become the No. 1 player in the world. He lost, Hovland won and Morikawa has yet to reach that top spot. He can’t do so this week, but after a year in which he felt like he was answering a ton of questions about what’s wrong with his game (answer: nothing), it would be sweet for him to seal the deal on his first win of the year.

“Getting engaged last year, coming back as a married man, it really [is a special place to me],” Morikawa said. “It’s obviously a beautiful location to be in the Bahamas beginning of December and obviously to end this season hopefully on a good note, it’s just kind of give it all you’ve got. 2022’s been a weird year for me, golf-wise it’s been a weird year, but hopefully we can kind of turn that around and slowly start to see some things towards the end of the year.”

2022 Hero World Challenge odds, picks

• Viktor Hovland: 13/2
• Collin Morikawa: 7-1
• Tom Kim: 7-1
• Jon Rahm: 10-1
• Tony Finau: 11-1
• Sam Burns: 11-1
• Scottie Scheffler: 11-1

Rahm is getting a ton of respect after shooting a 1-over 73 and deservedly so. You could make the case that he’s been the best player in the world for the last four months. I prefer somebody a bit down the board, though. Fleetwood is still 18-1 despite a nice start, and there’s more value in playing him than in Morikawa, Hovland or Rahm. Finau at 11-1 is also sneaky nice after the year (and fall) he’s had.

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While this time of year is not necessarily known for stars and superstars showing out on the PGA Tour, often interesting stories still emerge, and it seems like that’s going to be the case this weekend at the RSM Classic. Former Texas star Cole Hammer leads and former USC star Justin Suh is not far behind  after Round 1 at Sea Island, Georgia, in the last PGA Tour event of the fall.

Hammer went out and shot an 8-under 64 on the Plantation Course by making birdie on half of his holes. At 8 under, he leads by one over Ben Griffin with Suh one back of Griffin. Hammer hit 15 of 18 greens in regulation, which helps, but even the former No. 1 amateur in the world was a bit surprised by how many putts fell on a cold day near the Atlantic.

“I was almost blacked out there for a little bit,” Hammer said. “It went by in a heartbeat, but at the same time was a long day. It was cold and, like I said a little bit ago, I had very low expectations. And I’m glad I did because it was a tough day out there, there’s no question. I figured … par was a good score today and I found myself making putts for birdie early on and then just kind of kept going from there, but what a day.”

Hammer, who has conditional status on the Korn Ferry Tour but had never made a cut on the PGA Tour until last week at the Houston Open, clearly carried some mental and perhaps physical momentum into the RSM from his T27 finish in Houston.

“This summer was tough on the PGA Tour,” said Hammer, who is playing just his 15th career event on the Tour. “I had some good finishes on the Korn Ferry, but I was batting zero on the PGA Tour. I needed to get that monkey off my back. To do that in my hometown event in Houston was huge for me. I was telling my parents, but the first tee in Houston was like the most nervous I’ve ever been, just with the hometown crowd.

“It’s kind of crazy since I’ve played in Walker Cups and stuff. But anyways, I basically told myself I’ll never be that nervous again. I just got comfortable after that and saw myself shoot a good round on Tour and now I believe that I can do it.”

Hammer talked about how he thought this summer you had to play perfect golf on the PGA Tour to have any success, but it’s been nice to see that’s not actually the case. You can make some bogeys, you can have a few bad holes and still contend on the PGA Tour. This is a common theme for players as they mature. In particular, Max Homa has discussed this idea quite a bit throughout his career. Hammer is a good player and has had a fascinating career. He played in the 2015 U.S. Open as a 14-year-old before becoming a star in Austin, Texas. At 45-1 to win the tournament after Round 1, he can easily play the “nobody believes in me” card, but the pedigree is strong, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he stayed in the mix until Sunday.

Suh, another former No. 1 amateur in the world is coming off a tremendously successful 2022. After putting together 10 top 10s on the Korn Ferry Tour this year, Suh was named that league’s Player of the Year this week, and celebrated by dropping a 6-under 66 on the field at the Plantation Course.

“I think just being in the groove of this, being I think the third week on the road definitely helps,” Suh said. “I think confidence-wise, maybe subconsciously [winning the KFT Player of the Year] does [help]. Yeah, I mean, it still feels great, but I think for performance, I think just being on the road for three weeks, it’s kind of getting in the groove of the golf game.”

Suh has star written all over him. Though he’s taken longer to develop than some of his counterparts, he was part of a group including Viktor Hovland, Matthew Wolff and Collin Morikawa that turned pro just after the 2019 U.S. Open. He’s made three consecutive cuts on the PGA Tour and will be a tough out over the next 54 holes.

A win this weekend would quietly make him one of the more intriguing young players to watch going into 2023. Here’s a look at the top 10 after Round 1 at the RSM Classic.

Round 1 leaderboard

• 1. Cole Hammer: -8
• 2. Ben Griffin: -7
• T3. Beau Hossler: -6
• T3. Callum Tarren: -6
• T3. Justin Suh: -6
• T6. Stephan Jaeger: -5
• T6. Brian Harman: -5
• T6. David Lingmerth: -5
• T6. Webb Simpson: -5
• T6. Chris Gotterup: -5
• T6. Henrik Norlander: -5
• T6. Alex Smalley: -5
• T6. Keith Mitchell: -5
• T6. Russell Knox: -5
• T6. Harry Higgs: -5
• T6. Andrew Putnam: -5

Putnam is actually the new favorite at 10-1, followed closely by Seamus Power (-4) at 12-1 and Brian Harman and Beau Hossler at 14-1. Hammer is 45-1, and Suh is 30-1 after their solid starts on Thursday.

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