At the 2023 Tournament of Champions, it is not a victor from the 2021-22 season that occupies the top of the leaderboard, but a prolific winner, nevertheless. Collin Morikawa commands the solo lead at 16 under midway through the action at the Plantation Course at Kapalua as the two-time major champion has looked rejuvenated with the putter in hand.

A top three-iron player on the PGA Tour each of the last three seasons, Morikawa’s putter has often held the keys to victory. If he putts well, he seriously threatens to enter the winner’s circle. If he doesn’t, an appearance on the third or fourth page of the leaderboard usually takes shape.

This week the former is unfolding as the introduction of putting coach Stephen Sweeney and short-game guru Parker McLachlin to his inner circle is already paying dividends. Over the weekend, the short game will need to continue to cash in if he is to enter the winner’s circle for the first time since November 2022 and for the first time in the U.S. since February 2021.

It will be no easy task as he is followed closely behind by Tournament of Champions debutant J.J. Spaun and reigning PGA Tour Player of the Year Scottie Scheffler at 14 under. Jordan Spieth, Tom Kim, Jon Rahm and Matt Fitzpatrick all find themselves on the first page of the leaderboard and within five strokes of Morikawa with 36 holes to play.

The leader

1. Collin Morikawa (-16)

Morikawa may not have won in 2022, but statistically, he was the exact same from a strokes-gained perspective as he was in 2021 when he won three times. This week, he leads the field in strokes gained putting, gaining nearly four strokes with the flat stick through two rounds, and combined with his buttery iron play has made for a lethal one-two punch. As someone who typically lags behind the competition on the greens, it is this club which will make or break the world No. 11’s first start of the year.

Other contenders

T2. Scottie Scheffler, J.J. Spaun (-14)

4. Jordan Spieth (-13)

5. Tom Kim (-12)

T6. Matt Fitzpatrick, Jon Rahm (-11)

T8. Luke List, Tony Finau, Corey Conners, Aaron Wise (-10) 

What more is there to say about Tom Kim? Every time it appears as if the course is unsuitable for his game or the competition is too stiff, he pops up on the first page of the leaderboard. Paired with former world No. 1 Rahm on Friday, Kim looked at ease despite letting his fair share of birdie opportunities fall by the wayside. Still only four strokes off the pace of Morikawa, if he is to win, not only would it be his third victory in his very young PGA Tour career, but the 20-year-old would also be following in the footsteps of a rather big name (Tiger Woods).

Scheffler looks to regain world No. 1 status

The former world No. 1 is in position to return to the top spot in the world over the weekend should he finish in a two-way tie for third or better. In order for him to do so, Scheffler will need the putter to begin to cooperate as he currently leads the field in strokes gained tee to green. 

In the 16 starts following his victory at The Masters, Scheffler has averaged -0.35 strokes gained putting per round. Through two rounds at Kapalua, he has posted -0.69 strokes gained putting per round and ranks 30th in the field. A turnaround with this club could lead to a win and ascending to No. 1 in the world again.

2023 Tournament of Champions updated odds and picks

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook

• Collin Morikawa: 2-1
• Scottie Scheffler: 13/5
• Jordan Spieth: 7-1
• Jon Rahm: 17/2
• J.J. Spaun: 12-1
• Tom Kim: 14-1
• Matt Fitzpatrick: 22-1
• Tony Finau: 28-1

This is tough. Conventional wisdom suggests Morikawa regresses on the greens, but that is without knowing the staying power of this new-found confidence in his putting stroke. This would also mean Scheffler shows improvement, which I believe to be the more likely scenario, and at just shorter than 3-1 is a worthwhile investment. 

Spieth continues to be a human rollercoaster and Rahm is beginning to show similar characteristics making me uneasy about the idea of backing either of them. Unsure if Kim can continue this rapid ascension, if itching for a longer price, my money would be on Finau at 28-1 with the hope of a hot putting performance over the weekend.

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After playing his final nine holes in 5 under on Thursday, Tony Finau kept his foot on the gas pedal early Friday morning at the 2022 Houston Open. Beginning his day with a crucial par save, the four-time PGA Tour winner tacked on 10 birdies against two blemishes over the course of his next 17 holes to tie the course record with an 8-under 62 at Memorial Park Golf Course.

“I thought I just took the momentum that I had from yesterday. I finished 5 under on my last nine yesterday and I just rolled that momentum right into today,” said Finau. “I thought I made a huge putt for par on No. 1 and then I was kind of off to the races. I almost made a hole-in-one on No. 2 and just kind of cruising from there. It was a really nice round of golf.”

Standing at 13 under, the 33-year-old is four strokes clear of his nearest pursuer as the conditions worsened in the Houston area in the afternoon hours and caused play to be suspended until Saturday morning when the second round will resume at 7:45 a.m. ET. With this weather expecting to persist, and with half the field still needing to complete their second rounds, this margin possessed by Finau cannot go overlooked as he attempts to fend off the competition over the weekend.

Last year’s runner-up and world No. 2 Scottie Scheffler remains a threat as he sits at 5 under through 13 holes in his second round. Still eight strokes off the pace, he is all but assured to be around for the weekend, unlike his good friend Sam Burns. Burns entered the week the second highest-ranked player in the field. After an opening 7-over 77, however, Burns is unlikely to recover and make the cut.

The leader

1. Tony Finau (-13)

Despite missing the cut last week in his season debut, Finau knocked off the competitive rust at Mayakoba. Staying put in Mexico to spend quality time with the family and play a couple rounds of golf with his children, Finau was looking to rediscover the sharpness that propelled him into a memorable last few months of the 2021-22 season. 

During this span, Finau teed it up in 13 tournaments — winning twice, finishing runner-up another two times and collecting four additional top-15 finishes. Through 36 holes, his search appears to have been a successful one.

“Winning just breeds confidence. I’ve always felt like I was confident to win, but you’ve got to do it, you’ve got to make it happen. Having done that back to back, I think it just breeds confidence more into my belief and to my game,” said Finau. “I would say that’s been a nice part over these last couple years is just getting more comfortable at the top of the leaderboard. I always am trying to get better and each day that’s all you can ask of yourself is just try and push yourself to be the best you can be, and the result of that is I think I’ve been better each year of my career and each season and hopefully I continue that trend.”

Other contenders

2. Patrick Rodgers (-9)

T3. Tyson Alexander, Alex Noren (-8)

T5. James Hahn, Carl Yuan (-7)

T7. Wyndham Clark, Mackenzie Hughes, Aaron Rai, Ben Griffin, Ben Taylor, Trey Mullinax, Aaron Wise (-6)

This is an eclectic pack on the chase featuring journeymen, rookies, European stalwarts and everything in between. Hahn, Mullinax, Wise and Hughes are the only PGA Tour winners of the bunch, and it is the Canadian being featured in the spotlight. Playing alongside the leader the first two days, Hughes got a front row seat to Finau’s exquisite play. 

Not possessing his best stuff on Friday, Hughes, who won earlier this season at the Sanderson Farms Championship, kept himself in this tournament thanks to a scrappy performance. One of the best putters on the PGA Tour and recently adding some distance, Hughes could be worth a look over the weekend.

“I kind of joked with Joel [Dahmen] a little bit there that Tony [Finau] had a long pro-am day today with him and I going alongside,” said Hughes. “And yeah, just felt like I was all over the lot starting out and just trying to find a way to make some pars. Was doing a good job of that for the most part. Then I got a little bit of a semblance of a swing the last five, six holes there and was able to finish the round quite nicely. All in all, it was probably about as good as I could have shot today.” 

Homeless Hubbs heading home early after DQ

This was a peculiar moment in the second round as Mark Hubbard was disqualified for adding an extra golf club to his bag around the turn. Standing at 9 over for the tournament through 27 holes, Hubbard was never going to make the cut and instead looked to test a different driver before packing his bags. Unbeknownst to him, his actions were grounds for disqualification.

2022 Houston Open updated odds and picks

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook

• Tony Finau: 5/7
• Scottie Scheffler: 8-1
• Alex Noren: 9-1
• Patrick Rodgers: 11-1
• Aaron Wise: 14-1
• Wyndham Clark: 60-1
• Trey Mullinax: 60-1
• Davis Riley: 65-1
• Carl Yuan: 70-1
• Mackenzie Hughes: 70-1
• James Hahn: 80-1
• Aaron Rai: 90-1

Two days into this tournament and only 12 players find themselves with odds lower than 100-1. A credit to what Finau is currently doing, I would be shocked if the current leader is unable to convert the edge into his fifth victory on the PGA Tour. He is performing adequately in every aspect of the game, and in particular his putting where he ranks third in the field.

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