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Only three men occupied the top spot in the Official World Golf Rankings in 2022. Switching between a few stars, Rory McIlroy is the player currently holding the position as he regained the title for the ninth time in his career with a victory at The CJ Cup in South Carolina in October. Having relinquished it before, and with the OWGR taking on a relatively new shape, will the Northern Irishman be able to hold on to the pole position for the entirety of 2023, or will someone else usurp him?

This prior year began with Jon Rahm atop the golf world. Beginning his 2022 in impressive fashion, Rahm finished runner-up at the Tournament of Champions and added another podium finish a few weeks later at the Farmers Insurance Open. Tacking on a top-10 result at the WM Phoenix Open, it was that very event which kickstarted Scottie Scheffler’s march to the top.

Beating Patrick Cantlay in a playoff in Phoenix, Scheffler went on to experience a historic run in the spring that included a victory two weeks later at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Making his way through the WGC Match Play, the Texan officially claimed the world No. 1 with his victory in his collegiate backyard of Austin, Texas. 

Adding some breathing room between him and the rest of professional golf, Scheffler notched his first career major championship at The Masters. Four wins in a six-week stretch cemented him as the best player in the world. His status would hold steady with runner-up finishes at the U.S. Open and the Charles Schwab Challenge but began to show cracks in the latter stages of the summer. Unable to convert his 54-hole lead at the Tour Championship into the FedEx Cup crown, Scheffler slowly saw an object grow larger in his rearview mirror. That object? Rory McIlroy. 

His win at East Lake accompanied another at the Canadian Open as well as four top-10 finishes at the major championships. With his victory this past fall in South Carolina, McIlroy completed his trek to the top but nearly gave it up during the winter months. Had Scheffler won the Hero World Challenge, where he ultimately finished second, he would have momentarily regained what he had lost.

With such fluidity in the rankings, 2023 has the potential to see numerous players make meaningful runs towards world No. 1. Previous holders like Scheffler and Rahm pose significant threats to McIlroy, as do Cantlay and Xander Schauffele. Will those closest to McIlroy chase him down or will an outsider similar to Scheffler in 2022 make his mark?

Best potential paths to world No. 1

1. Patrick Cantlay (Current rank: 4)

He reached as high as world No. 3 multiple times throughout 2022 but was never able to crack inside the top two. Cantlay is consistently among the best players in the world, and it may be a change to the PGA Tour schedule which ultimately propels him to new heights. Looking at the OWGR website, there is only one player inside the top 50 (non-LIV division) who has less than 40 official events contributing to their ranking, and that player is Cantlay.

With all the top players likely to play in 13 elevated events, four major championships and a handful of other tournaments, Cantlay’s typical schedule of roughly 20 tournaments a season may become the new norm. If so, it will only aid him as his game remains as sturdy as ever. Posting +2.08 strokes gained per round the last two years, some variance went against him in 2022 as he lost in playoffs at the WM Phoenix Open and RBC Heritage and collected runner-up finishes at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and Shriners Children’s Open. Cantlay is good enough to post a four-win season, and it wouldn’t surprise me if does just that in 2023.

2. Jon Rahm (5)

Beginning this past year as world No. 1, Rahm did all the right things early on, and it looked as if a repeat of his 2021 was on the horizon. Plans were halted when he relinquished his No. 1 ranking at the WGC Match Play, and things went from bad to worse when he dropped out of the top five in the world for the first time in three years. 

Rahm bounced back with three wins in his last 14 worldwide starts of 2022, and while he is technically trending in the wrong direction from a strokes-gained perspective (+2.41 SG per round in 2019, +2.40 in 2020, +2.37 in 2021 and +2.20 in 2022), this year presents a prime bounce back spot. The Spaniard is still the best driver of the golf ball in the world, and over his last five measured tournaments he averaged +1.45 strokes gained putting per round. Unsustainable? Yes. But also potentially a sign of things to come.

3. Scottie Scheffler (2)

Well, he’s the closest to McIlroy to begin 2023 and nearly leapfrogged him had it not been for Viktor Hovland at the Hero World Challenge. Regardless, Scheffler’s downturn in quality after his red-hot spring was primarily a result of his short game. With his putter letting him down more times than not, the 26-year-old was still able to contend on a regular basis, thus displaying just how strong the rest of his game remains.

In his 16 starts since slipping on the green jacket at Augusta National, Scheffler has finished on the podium six times including runner-up finishes at the Charles Schwab Challenge, U.S. Open, Tour Championship and Hero World Challenge. During this stretch, Scheffler averaged -0.35 strokes gained putting per round, and while golf is hardly simple, a return to form on the greens in early 2023 may mean a return to world No. 1.

4. Xander Schauffele (6)

The way in which Schauffele’s peers gush about him and his game should hold weight and in 2022, he finally showcased what they have been preaching about for years. After squandering a 54-hole lead at the WM Phoenix Open for the second consecutive year, Schauffele hit a lull with the low point coming in the form of a rare missed cut at The Masters. 

Since the hiccup at Augusta National, Schauffele has rattled off three wins, four top fives and five additional top-20 finishes in his last 13 tournaments. This is the consistency we should expect to see from the 29-year-old — the consistency which allowed him to post greater than +2.10 strokes gained per round in 13 of his 22 starts in 2022. With consistency comes contention, and if the monkey is truly off his back, the opportunity to reach world No. 1 will come for Schauffele.

5. Justin Thomas (8)

Ask yourself this: Is there a player who, when on, can get it quite like JT? The answer is no. The 15-time winner on the PGA Tour hasn’t racked up wins in bunches the last two seasons, but expect that to change in 2023. His last two victories are the 2021 Players Championship and the 2022 PGA Championship, and while impressive, even Thomas understands that given his caliber, two wins a season should be the bare minimum.

Thomas’ three best strokes gained season were 2020 (+2.27 SG per round; 3 wins), 2018 (+2.27 SG per round; 3 wins) and 2017 (+2.22 SG per round; 5 wins). In 2022, Thomas eeked his way closer to the +2.20 range and posted +2.02 strokes gained per round thanks in part to a solid putting campaign. His typically strong iron play lagged ever so slightly, and should it return to historical levels, Thomas could reign atop the world for the third time in his career.

6. Tony Finau (12)

You know who the 12th-ranked player in the world was at the end of 2021? Scottie Scheffler. It is certainly within the realm of possibilities that Finau could match such a breakout, especially with the manner in which he culminated his 2022. Winning three times in his last seven starts, Finau’s quality shined through after a rough start to his season that included zero top-10 finishes in his first 10 events.

He is the eldest name on this list at the age of 33, but age is just a number; let us not forget that Phil Mickelson didn’t win his first major championship until the age of 34. His rolling strokes gained averages show the potential for him to roll to the world No. 1. Over the last 12 months, he ranks 10th in total strokes gained, fourth the last six months and fourth again over the last three months with only McIlroy, Cantlay and Rahm ahead of him.

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Rory McIlroy became the No. 1 player in the Official World Golf Rankings for the ninth time in his career in 2022, yet many still considered his year a failure because he did not win one of the four major championships in which he played. McIlroy could have won 15 tournaments, but without moving his major total from four to five, his campaign would have been deemed a disappointment to some. 

Is this fair? I’m not here to debate that. That’s a different topic for a different article for a different day. What I want to discuss is whether this merry-go-round for McIlroy of playing great golf but coming up short in the four events that matter most will ever end.

Will Rory McIlroy, once thought to be a future seven- or eight- (or 10-time?) major winner get back on the proper side of the ledger at one of the four majors in 2023 or at any point beyond that?

Here are two things that are surprising about McIlroy’s career: 1) He hasn’t had that many great chances at major championships (we’ll discuss this in more depth in a moment), and 2) Nearly a decade and a half into his career, he says he feels like he’s searching once again for his first major win.

“My last major championship was before [wife] Erica and I started going out; it was before my ankle injury and my back injury; it was before so many things that are now a part of my life,” McIlroy told Paul Kimmage of the Independent this fall. “I’m almost a different person. And I’ve been reflecting on this for the last couple of months and I think that’s a good thing. I feel like I’m trying to win my first major again, and there’s an enthusiasm and a fire about the chase again.”

This undoubtedly is true. McIlroy is extrinsically motivated, and while an external goal as big as this might be an albatross for some, for McIlroy it lights a flame. The carrot in front of him, it seems, is clearer than it’s been in several years. There is a world in which, perhaps, McIlroy wins multiple batches of major championships.

What’s also true, at least statistically, is that McIlroy is playing the best golf of his entire career. His last 50 rounds have represented, in terms of strokes gained, his best 50-round stretch of all time, including the periods of time in which he won his first four majors.

This leads us back to the first point, which is that McIlroy hasn’t had as many amazing performances at majors as you might have expected. As an aside, he has not had that many close calls, either, and those are categorically different than amazing performances. Before 2022, McIlroy had had a 25% chance to win a major going into the final round just five times in his career. He converted four of those.

In terms of great performances at majors, McIlroy had gained between 4-5 strokes — which is a lot but not an absurd amount — on major fields four times prior to 2022. He won all four majors. Statistically speaking, things had mostly gone his way at the majors when he played good golf (remember, Phil Mickelson once gained 6.6 strokes on a major field and lost). If his four major wins were 50-50 balls, McIlroy had come down with all of them.

This year’s second at the Masters and third at The Open were the two best performances McIlroy has ever had without converting them into wins (4.22 and 3.98 SG respectively).

To go deeper on this, we turn to Data Golf’s expected majors statistic, which shows how many majors you were expected to win based on your major performance in a given year. For example: If you gain 4.5 strokes per round on the field at a major, you are expected to win that major 50% of the time, so your expected major wins number would be 0.5. Add those up based on major performance in a given year, and you get an expected major wins total for that year.

Let’s take a look at McIlroy’s.

This is fascinating. For the first time in his career, McIlroy played well enough to potentially win a major or more and did not do so. Contrast his expected outcome this year with 2022 PGA Champion winner Justin Thomas’, which was 0.11.

In other words, 2022 was the first year of McIlroy’s career in which he’s had an expected win total of greater than 0.1 at the majors and not won one of them. It was — both statistically and anecdotally — the most heartbreaking year of his career when it comes to major championships.

If a great player produces enough expected wins over time, it is, well, expected that he’s going to eventually win. And if you want a glass-half-full view of McIlroy’s year, it comes from his caddie, Harry Diamond. McIlroy said in the Kimmage interview that Diamond is the person who has reminded him of the fact that he’s going to win majors if he continues to play at the clip.

“And it’s obviously a tough loss for him too but he can see the good in it: ‘Rory, you keep doing this and you’re gonna win your majors.’ That was it,” said McIlroy. “‘We’re gonna do this.’ And it was probably something I needed to hear because you can get sucked into that spiral of, ‘It’s been so long … I’ve just had a great opportunity … Am I ever going to do this?'”

Whether McIlroy continues to play at this current clip remains to be seen. But what is nearly definitive is the following: If he does, then he’ll win a fifth major and perhaps more after that. Of the 19 players to put up an expected major total of 0.5 or more in a single year since 2015, 14 of them won major championships. The odds are overwhelmingly in your favor.

Yes, you often still have to close out final rounds, which McIlroy failed to do at The Open in July, but if you’re posting a 0.5 expected major total a year, it’s also possible that one of those is going to be a major where everybody else fades away (think about J.T. at the PGA Championship) and you walk away with a fifth. As always in golf, you can only control what you can control. If McIlroy does next year what he did this year, there might not be a Scottie Scheffler who puts up 4.96 strokes gained per round at Augusta. Hell, there might not be a Cam Smith who posts 4.47 at The Open. Four could become six in an instant.

So while McIlroy’s major drought is about to hit nine years, his renewed desire has some numbers around it, and they’re pointing toward an optimistic 2023. Sure, the famine may never end, but Diamond is right, this kind of play — regardless of what anyone else does — almost certainly means that at some point it will.

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It’s been quite a year for Rory McIlroy. Three wins, another FedEx Cup title, a return to world and European no.1, and a major role as an outspoken critic of LIV Golf, have thrust the 33-year-old from Northern Ireland into the global spotlight like never before. But what does the man in question think of his status as pro golf’s senior statesman as we head into 2023 and his 16th season on tour?

When you first set out on your professional career back in 2007, what ambitions or expectations did you place on yourself, and how do look back on what you have achieved so far?
It may sound a bit clichéd, but I think I just took it one step at a time. I wanted to get my European Tour card and once I did that, I wanted to play in the majors and the World Golf Championships. I didn’t start off with grand ambitions. I just wanted to become the best golfer that I could, and whether that meant I was at a certain level or the levels I have reached, I’ve just always tried to get the best out of myself.
When I look back over the last 15 or so years, I know that I have had a pretty amazing career and it has provided me with an amazing life and has enabled me to do some amazing things, but you still have to remember where you came from. I have to pinch myself sometimes and try to put a little perspective on things, as I know that I am incredibly privileged to be in the position I am today. I’m getting to live out my childhood dreams, and not everybody gets to do that, so it’s an unbelievable position to be in.

You’ve been in great form this year and had a great run of results over the last few months. What are your main takeaways from 2022?
Yeah, it’s been great. I feel like almost every time I’ve teed it up this year, I’ve been in contention on a Sunday. You’re obviously not going to win every week, but if you give yourself a chance at least every week, that’s a really good start. As long as I keep putting myself in good positions, keep giving myself chances to win, that’s what I’m really happy with.
Getting back to world no.1, given where I was a year ago, also makes me feel proud. I’ve worked so hard over the last 12 months to get myself back to this place. I feel like I’m enjoying the game as much as I ever have. I absolutely love the game of golf. When I go out there and I play with that joy, the results have been good and long may that continue.
Another thing that I’m really proud of is that I don’t feel I have to rely on one aspect of my game to get me into contention. If my driving isn’t quite there, then my putter bails me out. If my putter isn’t there, my iron play bails me out. I feel like when you get to this level, it’s like, okay, how can you make those incremental improvements to get better, and I think my goal has been to just become a more complete golfer and I feel like I’m on the journey to doing that. I’m as complete a golfer as I feel like I’ve ever been, and hopefully I can continue on that path.

What specifically brings you joy out on the golf course?
Just the journey of trying to get the best out of myself, I think that’s the satisfying thing. I never feel like I’ve figured this game out – I don’t think I ever will figure it out – but every day I wake up trying to get closer. That’s the beauty of this game and why we all keep coming back for more.

It’s obviously been a year of great highs, but how long did it take you to get over the disappointment of not winning The Open Championship this year, especially after getting into such a strong position?
Once The Open was done, I just reset my goals on what I thought a successful season would look like, and that’s what I went off and did and that’s what I was able to achieve. Of course I was disappointed not to win at St Andrews, but you lose more often than you win in this game, so I couldn’t afford to sit around moping in the middle of the season, I had to look forward and see how I could make the best of the rest of the year, which I think I have been able to do.
I feel like any time I’ve had a setback in my career, whether it be missing a cut, missing a chance to win a tournament, trying to get my first win on the European Tour or win my first major championship, I feel like I’ve been able to bounce back from some adversity. It’s been a learning curve, but I think my resilience, and my ability to respond to setbacks, is one of the things that I’ll look back on my career in 20 years’ time and be most proud of.

With the commitment to play 20 events on the PGA Tour next season, it’s hard to see how you’re going to find so much time to play in Europe. What is your schedule going to look like on the DP World Tour next season?
Pretty much the same as it has been the last few seasons to be honest. I’ve set my life up in the States, and that’s where my family is now, so the PGA Tour is where I will continue to play the majority of my golf, but I will continue to play in DP World Tour events where it fits my schedule and where I feel like I can and should play.
I’m an ambitious person. I want to play where the best players are playing and for the last decade or more, the best players have predominately played in the United States. There are a lot of changes going on right now in the schedules, but that probably won’t fully roll out until 2024, when the PGA Tour starts its calendar year season, rather than the wrap-around season which it currently operates.
I think that’s when will properly start to see the benefits of the strategic partnership between the PGA Tour and the DP World Tour. It will unlock more of a global schedule with some of the bigger European events incorporated into that January to August time frame. The two tours are going to run side-by-side and while that means I’m probably not going to play in the Dutch Open anytime soon, or some of the smaller events, more co-sanctioned events are going to attract stronger fields and that can only be good for sponsors and for fans going forward.

Do you see a time when the PGA Tour, the DP World Tour and LIV Golf will sit down and sort it out, or have we reached an impasse and golf will be forever split?
I’ve always said I think there is a time and a place where everyone that’s involved should sit down and try to work together. It’s very hard for that to happen right now when there are all these lawsuits going on. There’s obviously this court case that’s going to happen in February with the DP World Tour and then the one in the States later next year, so that makes it very difficult to know what’s going to happen. There’s a natural timeline to let temperatures just sort of settle down a little bit and people can maybe go into those mediations with cooler heads and not be so emotional about it all.
But look, I don’t want a fractured game. I never have. The game of golf – at the professional level – is ripping itself apart right now and that’s not good for anyone. It’s not good for the players on whichever tour their on. In an ideal world, you want the best players competing against each other all of the time, or at least for more of the time, and currently that isn’t happening. So, I’m all for everyone sitting around the table and trying to figure something out.

Do you feel that LIV Golf events should be ascribed world ranking points?
I would certainly want the best players in the world ranked accordingly. I think Dustin Johnson is somewhere around 100th, so it’s not an accurate reflection of where he is in the game. But at the same time, you can’t make up your own rules. There are criteria to be met and everyone knows what they are. I have no problem with LIV players getting world ranking points, but the events have to meet the criteria laid down by the OWGR, and if you don’t meet the criteria, it’s going to be hard to justify why you should have them.

Are you surprised by how much you’ve come to be seen as an unofficial spokesperson for the established tours? Do you feel comfortable in that role?
I don’t know. I’m speaking up for what I believe in. I guess that’s the only thing I can say. Again, I’m speaking up because I believe in the game of golf, and look, the other side will say the exact same thing. But I don’t see how having 48 hand-picked players is growing the game in any way. There have to be pathways. There has to be a meritocracy. You need to give someone the ambition or opportunity to know that if they are playing on the Challenge Tour that in one, two or however many years’ time, that they can be challenging for major championships, which are the pinnacle of our sport. There is this pyramid and this funnel that has been so good for golf for so many years, and I don’t think it’s a broken system. So, whenever something like this comes along that is incredibly disruptive and they are saying things about how golf needs to change, it doesn’t need to change. Golf is the most wonderful game in the world. It doesn’t.
Could there be things that we could do to make it more entertaining from a TV perspective? Of course. That’s something that I think we can do from inside the walls. I don’t think we need to go outside of what we have already to figure that out.
But the game of golf post-COVID has been thriving, and I just want to make sure that it continues to thrive. It’s incredibly divisive, and does LIV Golf bring more eyeballs on to golf? Probably, at the moment, yes, because people are interested in the soap opera of it all, but that’s not golf. The most interesting thing about LIV over the last six months or so have been the rumours about who is going and who is not going. It’s not about the golf. It might be at some stage, but right now it’s the rumour mill that’s fuelling it. So when you you’re watching the PGA Tour or the DP World Tour, you’re watching because of the golf and you’re watching to see who is going to win tournaments that have context and mean something. That’s why I’m speaking up.

Finally, the European Ryder Cup team is most likely going to have a very different look to it next year, with a new generation of players coming through and some of the older players having moved over to LIV Golf or fallen out of form. How do you rate Europe’s chances against what, on paper, always looks like a strong US team?
As you say, our Ryder Cup team is going to look very different next year, and so will the American team to a certain extent. There’s going to be quite a few rookies on both teams, I would imagine. Europe’s had an unbelievable run in the Ryder Cup for the past couple of decades, and we haven’t lost a home leg in 30 years. The US team is very, very strong and doesn’t have lot of scar tissue compared to some of the past teams. They have a lot of their pairings locked down and because of the Presidents Cup, they get a chance to do it every year, which I think benefits them hugely. I think the Hero Cup, which replaces what was once the Seve Trophy, will be very useful for us next year and help us all to get a feel for the team and for Luke [Donald] and the guys to help formulate a plan.
As I said a few weeks ago, when I was playing in the Italian Open, it is time for a rejuvenation of the European Ryder Cup team. We need to blood some new guys, and a home Ryder Cup is the best way to do that. You’ve got the crowd acting as the 13th player on your side, and if you can introduce some of these new guys to the team then it’s the best way to go about it. But, of course, we’ll be the under cogs going into Italy and with how young this American team is, it looks like they will be very strong for a very long time. Either way, I’m excited. It’s a new challenge, a fresh challenge, they’ll be a lot of new faces and I’m excited to be a part of it.

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Bromance will be strong in the seventh edition of The Match. Featuring 15-time major champion Tiger Woods alongside his business partner and good friend Rory McIlroy squaring off with the all-American duo of Jordan Spieth and Justin Thomas, the charity golf exhibition welcomes four major champions to Pelican Golf Club in Belleair, Florida, on Saturday. 

Woods and McIlroy possess 19 major championships between the two, while Spieth and Thomas lag behind with a measly five. While both pairs are experienced, only Woods has previously participated in The Match. Playing in the inaugural competition, Woods fell to Phil Mickelson in extra holes before exacting revenge over Mickelson and Tom Brady alongside Peyton Manning in the second edition of the event.

The 46-year-old may know what to expect from the competition, but perhaps not from his own game. Not seen in competition since The 150th Open, Woods was expected to play in the 2022 Hero World Challenge before being forced to withdraw due to plantar fasciitis in his right foot. 

“I like playing, I like competing, but unfortunately, I can hit the golf ball and hit whatever shot you want, I just can’t walk,” said Woods at the onset of his event in The Bahamas.

Fortunately for Woods, all competitors will use golf carts, and he happens to be paired with the best player in the game in world No. 1 McIlroy. The Northern Irishman is fresh off winning the DP World Tour Championship, capturing the European crown in conjunction with his FedEx Cup title from this past summer. McIlroy may be in the best form of the four players, but doubting Spieth and Thomas in a team competition has proven to be unwise in the past.

Garnering a 4-0-0 record with each other at the 2022 Presidents Cup, Spieth and Thomas were unstoppable at Quail Hollow Club in September. They are 16-7-1 when paired together between the Presidents Cup and Ryder Cup, and should give Woods and McIlroy all they can handle over the course of a 12-hole best ball match.

LIVE updates: Follow along with all the action from The Match at this link here. 

The Match 7

Viewing information

Date: Saturday, Dec 10 | Time 7 p.m. ET 
Location: Pelican Golf Club — Belleair, Florida
Broadcast: TNT | Simulcast: TBS, truTV, HLN

Format

The Match will be contested under 12 holes of match play and best-ball format. Each player will play his own ball, and the best individual score from each team will count for the hole. 

Teams

Tiger Woods & Rory McIlroy: They played in an exhibition at Big Cedar Lodge following the 2020 U.S. Open, but outside of that and practice rounds, the two do not have any experience alongside each other in the team setting. Woods is the major question mark among the four players, but any concerns may be squashed given his playing partner. McIlroy is playing some of the best golf of his career, and Woods has alway been known as someone to underdeliver to the media and overdeliver on the golf course. Perhaps this will be one of those instances as well.

Jordan Spieth & Justin Thomas: Thomas finished the Hero World Challenge on a high note to grab a solo fifth-place result, while Spieth nearly brought up the rear for the second straight year. These two can ham-and-egg it with the best of them and know each other’s game maybe better than their own. With a history of performing at their peak alongside each other, it is no surprise they are listed as the favorites in this one. However, if Tiger and Rory are smart (which they are), they won’t be giving these two too many gimmes — much to the dismay of Thomas — as short putts have been a thorn in both of their sides.

Rick Gehman, Kyle Porter and Patrick McDonald preview The Match featuring Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy vs Justin Thomas and Jordan Spieth.  Follow & listen to The First Cut on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

Picks, odds

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook

Spieth/Thomas: -125 | Woods/McIlroy: +105

There has been significant movement in this line since opening. Woods and McIlroy were actually -120 favorites at one point, but have since drifted to plus money as the underdogs. Spieth and Thomas should hypothetically roll, however, these charity events have seen some surprises with the best putters tending to win. That isn’t the strength of Thomas, and surely not Spieth, which makes me believe the current form of McIlroy combined with a sprinkle of Woods magic will be enough to see them come out on top. Pick: Woods/McIlroy +105

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The Match has become one of the most popular golf events as multiple sports celebrities such as Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes and Steph Curry have participated in past versions of the competition. It’ll just be professional golfers participating in The Match 2022 on Saturday (6 p.m. ET) at Pelican Golf Club in Belleair, Fla., however. Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy will team up against Jordan Spieth and Justin Thomas in what could be one of the highest-quality renditions of the event. Spieth and Thomas are priced as -130 favorites (risk $130 to win $100) at Caesars Sportsbook, giving them a slight edge over Woods and McIlroy (+110) in the latest The Match 7 odds.

Woods withdrew from the Hero World Challenge due to a foot injury, which is something to monitor as the event progresses. Should you be avoiding Woods and McIlroy due to that factor? Before locking in any Match 7 bets, be sure to see Match VII picks and predictions from SportsLine’s proven golf expert, Mike McClure. 

McClure, a DFS professional, knows golf inside and out. His proprietary model has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June of 2020. In fact, it’s up over $9,500 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.

McClure’s model included Justin Thomas in its best bets to win the 2022 PGA Championship. That bet hit at +1600, and for the entire tournament, McClure’s best bets returned almost $800. At the 2022 Masters, McClure’s model was all over Scottie Scheffler’s first career major championship victory heading into the weekend.

In addition, McClure was all over Brooks Koepka defeating Bryson DeChambeau as a +110 underdog in The Match V. This same model has also nailed a whopping eight majors entering this event. Anyone who has followed it has seen massive returns.

Now, with The Match 7 set to tee off on Saturday evening, McClure has scoured the golf odds and locked in his top pick. Head to SportsLine now to see McClure’s best bet for The Match VII. 

Why Tiger Woods/Rory McIlroy can win The Match 7

Woods has experience participating in this event, as he teamed up with Peyton Manning to defeat Phil Mickelson and Tom Brady in 2020. He is also one of the best golfers of all time, and McIlroy’s long drives should put him in a position to utilize his short game. McIlroy has the top spot in the World Golf Ranking and has placed at least fourth in six straight tournaments that he has participated in.

He has also played recently, finishing fourth in the DP World Tour Championship on Nov. 20, while Thomas and Spieth have not played competitively since Oct. 23. This is only a 12-hole exhibition match, so health should not be a major factor for Woods. His experience combined with McIlroy’s superior ability gives that duo an edge over Thomas and Spieth on Saturday. See which side to back at SportsLine.

Why Jordan Spieth/Justin Thomas can win The Match 7

This match will likely come down to the form of Woods, who is playing competitively for the first time in months and is dealing with several injuries. His lack of form makes Spieth and Thomas the much safer betting option, especially since they have gone 8-2 as a duo since 2018. They went 4-0-0 together at Quail Hollow in September, so they have some recent success to lean on heading into this exhibition showdown.

McIlroy has consistently been one of the best drivers in the sport, but Spieth and Thomas are both strong off the tee as well. They are close friends off the course, giving them an upper hand in a rare 2 vs. 2 exhibition format such as this one. Woods appears to be the weak link in this year’s version of The Match, especially considering the recent consistency from the other three golfers participating. See which side to back at SportsLine.

How to make The Match 2022 picks

McClure has scoured The Match VII odds board and found a critical x-factor that has him jumping all over one side. You can only get his top pick for The Match VII right here.

So who wins The Match VII? Visit SportsLine now to see who you can bank on to win The Match 7, and see where the betting value lies, all from the expert that’s nailed eight golf majors, and find out. 

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Saturday’s seventh edition of The Match — this one featuring Tiger Woods, Jordan Spieth, Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas — should be as entertaining as golf gets at this time of the year. That quartet hasn’t been playing a ton, but these exhibition events are more about the interaction than the golf anyway, and the interaction should be phenomenal.

Woods and McIlroy will take on Spieth and Thomas at 7 p.m. ET on Saturday at Pelican Golf Club (more details here). The latter pair is favored, which led Thomas to joke Wednesday in a conference call that the sharps totally know what they’re doing when it comes to setting the lines.

There is plenty to be excited about when it comes to this particular event — perhaps Woods’ return to golf for the first time since July’s Open Championship most of all — and even though this best-ball match will only last 12 holes, it should be terrifically entertaining. Here are four things I’ll be looking for when the festivities get underway on Saturday.

1. Tiger’s health: There are a lot of very not serious items to tick off on Saturday night at Pelican, but Tiger’s health is not one of them. He withdrew from last week’s Hero World Challenge with plantar fasciitis and casually mentioned that he’d had other procedures earlier this year. He has insisted that he’ll be fine as long as he has a golf cart (he will Saturday), but I’m mildly dubious about his overall mobility.

There should not be (although there undoubtedly will be) any extrapolations made about next year’s major championships based on the 50 or so shots Woods hits at this event, but it’s been five months since we’ve seen him swing a golf club competitively. That’s not nothing, and the best swing of all time — whether it is affected by the myriad ailments Tiger feels in the rest of his body — will be under a microscope over the next 10 days (here and at the PNC Championship where he will tee it up with his son, Charlie).

2. Who is the best trash talker? Back to the more insouciant topics. There was debate on Wednesday about this. Tiger said he was limited in terms of the vocabulary he could use. Rory said he knows J.T. thinks he’s the best talker. J.T. and Spieth said they were so outclassed when it comes to wins and majors that they might have to take the nice guy route instead of going right at two guys with a combined 19 major championships. (Spieth and J.T. have five.) Banter at events like these is normally neutered, but hopefully the fellas get a little loose, and we get some top-notch one-liners.

3. Night golf: Spieth spoke about how he’s never played night golf before and how much he was looking forward to doing so. I am equally excited about some primetime East Coast golf in the winter. Normally, when golf is televised at these times, it’s on the West Coast, but this event should feel a little bigger than normal because it’s under the lights. I don’t know that this will affect the outcome (unless the lights on the carts malfunction for some reason), but it does add to the festivities a bit.

4. Best match ever: Up to this point, the most collective majors at a match like this one was 21 (Tiger and Phil Mickelson, multiple times). This group has 24 combined, and it represents the most collective talent at any of the seven official matches to date. Granted, 15 of those came from the guy who hasn’t played in five months, but three of the other players are among the 15 best in the world right now. If this thing is close late — and it likely will be — the battle for a meaningless victory certainly won’t feel like just another exhibition.

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After helping launch The Match golf series in 2018, and competing in the first two installments, Tiger Woods will return for The Match 2022 on Saturday. The 15-time major champion will team up with Rory McIlroy to take on Jordan Spieth and Justin Thomas over 12 holes at Pelican Golf Club in the Tampa area. Set to tee off Saturday evening, The Match 7 will be the first of its kind to take place in primetime with a 6 p.m. ET start time. 

Given that Woods’ current form is well behind that of the other three, his pairing with McIlroy is listed as a +105 underdog (bet $100 to win $105). The latest Match 7 odds from Caesars Sportsbook have the Spieth and Thomas duo as -125 favorites (bet $125 to win $100). Before locking in any Match 7 bets, be sure to see Match VII picks and predictions from SportsLine’s proven golf expert, Mike McClure. 

McClure, a DFS professional, knows golf inside and out. His proprietary model has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June of 2020. In fact, it’s up over $9,500 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.

McClure’s model included Justin Thomas in its best bets to win the 2022 PGA Championship. That bet hit at +1600, and for the entire tournament, McClure’s best bets returned almost $800. At the 2022 Masters, McClure’s model was all over Scottie Scheffler’s first career major championship victory heading into the weekend.

In addition, McClure was all over Brooks Koepka defeating Bryson DeChambeau as a +110 underdog in The Match V. This same model has also nailed a whopping eight majors entering this event. Anyone who has followed it has seen massive returns.

Now, with The Match 7 set to tee off on Saturday evening, McClure has scoured the golf odds and locked in his top pick. Head to SportsLine now to see McClure’s best bet for The Match VII. 

Why Tiger Woods/Rory McIlroy can win The Match VII

The Thomas/Spieth team may be the betting favorite, but the Woods/McIlroy duo has the single best golfer in this event. McIlroy is the World No. 1, having achieved that mark after winning the CJ Cup in late October. With the Irishman also winning the Tour Championship to close out last season, he’s won back-to-back PGA Tour events, so there’s no hotter golfer in the world than McIlroy. Meanwhile, neither Spieth nor Thomas has finished better than 40th at any full-field PGA Tour tournament this season.

The experience with this kind of event also benefits Woods and McIlroy as the former is the only of the four golfers to compete in The Match before. The format is much different than a typical PGA Tour event, and the newcomers will have to adjust to things such as interviews between shots, off-the-cuff side bets and on-course smack talk. Woods has experienced all of this twice before, and he could also help prepare McIlroy for the different environment. See which side to back at SportsLine.

Why Jordan Spieth/Justin Thomas can win The Match 7

Golf is primarily an individual sport but with the Ryder Cup and Presidents Cup held in alternating years, this pair of young Americans have had plenty of opportunities to compete as a team. They went a perfect 4-0 while playing as a twosome in the 2022 Presidents Cup and they also played a combined six matches as teammates at the 2021 Ryder Cup and 2018 Ryder Cup, combining to go 4-2 in those matches.

That familiarity should be a significant advantage during this alternate four-ball format (though the exact rules haven’t yet been laid out). And while McIlroy and Woods are neighbors in Jupiter and have gotten closer over the years, you’d be hard-pressed to find a closer pair on the PGA Tour than Spieth and Thomas. They’ve regularly roomed together at certain tour stops and Spieth was the best man in Thomas’ recent wedding. See which side to back at SportsLine.

How to make The Match 2022 picks

McClure has scoured The Match VII odds board and found a critical x-factor that has him jumping all over one side. You can only get his top pick for The Match VII right here.

So who wins The Match VII? Visit SportsLine now to see who you can bank on to win The Match 7, and see where the betting value lies, all from the expert that’s nailed eight golf majors, and find out. 

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Bromance will be strong in the seventh edition of The Match. Featuring 15-time major champion Tiger Woods alongside his business partner and good friend Rory McIlroy squaring off with the all-American duo of Jordan Spieth and Justin Thomas, the charity golf exhibition welcomes four major champions to Pelican Golf Club in Belleair, Florida, on Saturday. 

Woods and McIlroy possess 19 major championships between the two, while Spieth and Thomas lag behind with a measly five. While both pairs are experienced, only Woods has previously participated in The Match. Playing in the inaugural competition, Woods fell to Phil Mickelson in extra holes before exacting revenge over Mickelson and Tom Brady alongside Peyton Manning in the second edition of the event.

The 46-year-old may know what to expect from the competition, but perhaps not from his own game. Not seen in competition since The 150th Open, Woods was expected to play in the 2022 Hero World Challenge before being forced to withdraw due to plantar fasciitis in his right foot. 

“I like playing, I like competing, but unfortunately, I can hit the golf ball and hit whatever shot you want, I just can’t walk,” said Woods at the onset of his event in The Bahamas.

Fortunately for Woods, all competitors will use golf carts, and he happens to be paired with the best player in the game in world No. 1 McIlroy. The Northern Irishman is fresh off winning the DP World Tour Championship, capturing the European crown in conjunction with his FedEx Cup title from this past summer. McIlroy may be in the best form of the four players, but doubting Spieth and Thomas in a team competition has proven to be unwise in the past.

Garnering a 4-0-0 record with each other at the 2022 Presidents Cup, Spieth and Thomas were unstoppable at Quail Hollow Club in September. They are 16-7-1 when paired together between the Presidents Cup and Ryder Cup, and should give Woods and McIlroy all they can handle over the course of a 12-hole best ball match.

The Match 7

Viewing information

Date: Saturday, Dec 10 | Time 7 p.m. ET 
Location: Pelican Golf Club — Belleair, Florida
Broadcast: TNT | Simulcast: TBS, truTV, HLN

Format

The Match will be contested under 12 holes of match play and best-ball format. Each player will play his own ball, and the best individual score from each team will count for the hole. 

Teams

Tiger Woods & Rory McIlroy: They played in an exhibition at Big Cedar Lodge following the 2020 U.S. Open, but outside of that and practice rounds, the two do not have any experience alongside each other in the team setting. Woods is the major question mark among the four players, but any concerns may be squashed given his playing partner. McIlroy is playing some of the best golf of his career, and Woods has alway been known as someone to underdeliver to the media and overdeliver on the golf course. Perhaps this will be one of those instances as well.

Jordan Spieth & Justin Thomas: Thomas finished the Hero World Challenge on a high note to grab a solo fifth-place result, while Spieth nearly brought up the rear for the second straight year. These two can ham-and-egg it with the best of them and know each other’s game maybe better than their own. With a history of performing at their peak alongside each other, it is no surprise they are listed as the favorites in this one. However, if Tiger and Rory are smart (which they are), they won’t be giving these two too many gimmes — much to the dismay of Thomas — as short putts have been a thorn in both of their sides.

Rick Gehman, Kyle Porter and Patrick McDonald preview The Match featuring Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy vs Justin Thomas and Jordan Spieth.  Follow & listen to The First Cut on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

Picks, odds

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook

Spieth/Thomas: -125 | Woods/McIlroy: +105

There has been significant movement in this line since opening. Woods and McIlroy were actually -120 favorites at one point, but have since drifted to plus money as the underdogs. Spieth and Thomas should hypothetically roll, however, these charity events have seen some surprises with the best putters tending to win. That isn’t the strength of Thomas, and surely not Spieth, which makes me believe the current form of McIlroy combined with a sprinkle of Woods magic will be enough to see them come out on top. Pick: Woods/McIlroy +105

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Since debuting in 2018, The Match has produced a series of made-for-TV golf exhibitions featuring some of the best players in the world alongside other celebrities. And during what has been a tumultuous year for golf, The Match 2022 is turning to four of golf’s biggest stars as Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy will take on Jordan Spieth and Justin Thomas. The quartet of PGA Tour professionals are all friends and have also become four of their tour’s most outspoken ambassadors. Now they’ll tee it up under the lights at the Pelican Golf Club just outside Tampa Bay, Fla., on Saturday for a 12-hole exhibition that should be incredibly entertaining with tee time scheduled for 6 p.m. ET.

This will be Woods’ first time playing televised golf since missing the cut at The Open Championship, but the 15-time major champion has maintained that he can still execute all the shots necessary to compete at a high level. Even so, Woods and McIlroy are +105 underdogs while Spieth and Thomas are -125 favorites (bet $125 to win $100) in the latest The Match 7 odds from Caesars Sportsbook. Before locking in any Match 7 bets, be sure to see Match VII picks and predictions from SportsLine’s proven golf expert, Mike McClure. 

McClure, a DFS professional, knows golf inside and out. His proprietary model has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June of 2020. In fact, it’s up over $9,500 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.

McClure’s model included Justin Thomas in its best bets to win the 2022 PGA Championship. That bet hit at +1600, and for the entire tournament, McClure’s best bets returned almost $800. At the 2022 Masters, McClure’s model was all over Scottie Scheffler’s first career major championship victory heading into the weekend.

In addition, McClure was all over Brooks Koepka defeating Bryson DeChambeau as a +110 underdog in The Match V. This same model has also nailed a whopping eight majors entering this event. Anyone who has followed it has seen massive returns.

Now, with The Match 7 set to tee off on Saturday evening, McClure has scoured the golf odds and locked in his top pick. Head to SportsLine now to see McClure’s best bet for The Match VII. 

Why Tiger Woods/Rory McIlroy can win The Match VII

Tiger and Rory know each other well as long-time Nike brand ambassadors and the two shared a special moment as they played their Thursday and Friday rounds together at St. Andrews in the 150th Open Championship. And it was an acknowledgment from McIlroy on the course that Woods claims brought on the waterworks in what is likely his last competitive round at the Birthplace of Golf.

Woods and McIlroy also both live in the Jupiter area and are recent business partners in TMRW Sports, a technology-driven sports company. And while Woods hasn’t been able to play much competitive golf since a serious car crash left him with chronic pain in his legs, he was clear throughout last week at the Hero World Challenge that he still had every shot in the bag. Meanwhile, McIlroy is the No. 1 player in the world and is coming off three wins on the PGA Tour in 2022. See which side to back at SportsLine.

Why Jordan Spieth/Justin Thomas can win The Match 7

Well known as two of the closest friends on the PGA Tour, Thomas and Spieth have been regular partners at the Ryder Cup and Presidents Cup over the years and they certainly know each other’s game well. At the 2022 Presidents Cup, the pairing combined to go 4-0 as a team and they also played together twice at the 2021 Ryder Cup and four times at the 2018 Ryder Cup, combining to go 4-2-0.

They regularly travel together on tour and have combined to win 28 tournaments and five major championships despite the fact that both are still in their 20s. Thomas is currently No. 8 in the Official World Golf Ranking while Spieth checks in at No. 14. However, like Woods and currently McIlroy, both are former world No. 1s and both are coming off strong seasons on the PGA Tour. See which side to back at SportsLine.

How to make The Match 2022 picks

McClure has scoured The Match VII odds board and found a critical x-factor that has him jumping all over one side. You can only get his top pick for The Match VII right here.

So who wins The Match VII? Visit SportsLine now to see who you can bank on to win The Match 7, and see where the betting value lies, all from the expert that’s nailed eight golf majors, and find out. 

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