April will be here before you know it, and coming along for the ride with it will be the start of golf’s 2023 major championship season. Beginning at Augusta National for the Masters, as it typically does, the majors will go a long way to defining the game’s best next year.

While eyes around Augusta will be drawn to Tiger Woods and the return of Phil Mickelson, world No. 1 Rory McIlroy will resume his quest for the career grand slam. The four-time major champion is still without a green jacket in his closet and will attempt to become the sixth man to collect all four majors. Scottie Scheffler will also look to defend his green jacket after spending most of 2022 ranked as the top golfer in the world.

Moving onward past Augusta, Georgia, the focus will shift to Rochester, New York, for the PGA Championship. A year removed from Justin Thomas’ memorable seven-stroke come-from-behind victory at Southern Hills, the two-time PGA Championship winner will vie for his third Wanamaker Trophy at Oak Hill Country Club. Meanwhile, good friend Jordan Spieth is seeking his first, which would help him complete his own career grand slam.

A new major championship venue will be unveiled at the U.S. Open in June. Los Angeles Country Club will host its first major, also the first that will take place in the Los Angeles area across the last three decades. Past champions Matt Fitzpatrick, Jon Rahm and Bryson DeChambeau should expect a stern test from the relatively unknown site.

Then, as it has done since 2019, The Open Championship will put a bow on the major season. The 151st edition of the event will have big shoes to fill as it follows in the footsteps of Cameron Smith’s victory at the Old Course at St. Andrews. Royal Liverpool Golf Club at Hoylake will host The Open for the first time since McIlroy’s win in 2014 and wrap up what should be yet another fantastic major stretch.

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook

2023 major championship predictions

The Masters | Augusta National | April 6-9

Jon Rahm (12-1): If I had to bet on one player winning one major over the next 10 years, Jordan Spieth at the Open Championship and Jon Rahm at the Masters would both be at the top of the list. Rahm has been a beast at Augusta National. Among golfers with at least 24 rounds played at the Masters in the strokes-gained era, the top four in that category looks like this: Spieth (2.75 per round), Rahm (2.56), Tiger Woods (2.54), Phil Mickelson (2.25). That’s nine combined green jackets, and Rahm will eventually add to that total. — Kyle Porter

Xander Schauffele (18-1): Despite how successful Schauffele was in 2022, he disappointed in majors. I expect this to change in a massive way in 2023, and it all begins at Augusta National. His missed cut at the 2022 Masters was an anomaly as he possesses prior finishes of T3 in 2021 and T2 in 2019. With one of the higher major championship floors, chances are the 29-year-old will be in the mix come the final round and will hopefully be the one to slip on the green jacket. — Patrick McDonald

PGA Championship | Oak Hill Country Club | May 8-11

Will Zalatoris (25-1): Do I feel good about the back injury? I do not. Do I feel good about getting somebody who was three strokes from winning half the majors in 2022 at 25-1 for the second major of 2023? I do. Zalatoris is straight up nasty at major championships, and he’s possibly the best ball-striker in the world. He has finished in the top eight in six of his first 10 major starts (which is outrageous), and over the last 12 months, nobody has a better number than his 1.88 strokes gained ball-striking. Two pretty elite ball strikers duked it out last time there was a PGA at Oak Hill, and I imagine Zalatoris is going to walk in their footsteps this time around. — Kyle Porter

Collin Morikawa (20-1): The last time the PGA Championship travelled to Oak Hill Country Club, Jason Dufner edged Jim Furyk by two strokes, and to me, those two players scream pinpoint iron play and accurate driving. While the course will have lengthened significantly since, those two statistics will remain prevalent. Over the last 12 months, only one player ranks inside the top 10 in both strokes gained approach and driving accuracy. That’s right, two-time major champion Morikawa. — Patrick McDonald

U.S. Open | Los Angeles Country Club | June 15-18

Xander Schauffele (18-1): Schauffele’s U.S. Open career has been wild. He has six starts, and his worst finish is a T14 in 2022 at Brookline. His worst finish. In every other U.S. Open he’s played, Schauffele has gained at least 2.7 strokes , and all five of his other showings have been top sevens. The bottom line with Schauffele at U.S. Opens is that he contends. He’s in the mix. He’s always around the lead at the end of the event. At 18-1, that’s all you’re asking for. I do believe Schauffele will win multiple majors by the end of his career, and the U.S. Open will be one of them. — Kyle Porter

Patrick Cantlay (25-1): There are numerous names I like for this championship including Morikawa and Tony Finau, but I will land on Cantlay. The California kid hasn’t had the best track record in major championships but may have found something at the end of 2022 with finishes of T14 at the U.S. Open and T8 at The Open. His back still poses problems for him when the weather turns sour, but summertime in Los Angeles should provide the pathway for the world No. 4’s first major championship title. — Patrick McDonald

The Open | Royal Liverpool Golf Club | July 20-23

Jordan Spieth (16-1): At this point, it’s kind of an auto pick for me every year. He only has one finish outside the top 10 in his last five starts and that was a T20 at Royal Portrush when his game was held together with nothing more than hot glue and hope. There is seemingly an intangible quality when it comes to Spieth and Open Championships, something that all the strokes gained data in the world can’t quantify. I know that sounds like a justification or a reason for me to shoehorn Spieth into these picks, and perhaps that’s the case, but links golf and Open golf are more spiritual, more magical than any other version of the sport — and nobody is better suited to those whims than Spieth. — Kyle Porter

Cameron Young (50-1): If Young goes through a sophomore season resembling his freshman campaign, this number will be long gone come July. Runner up to Cameron Smith at the 150th Open at St. Andrews, Young has proven capable of competing with the best players in the world no matter the conditions. He is long off-the-tee and has all the tools in the shed. Given the success of his first links golf experience, he should contend once again. — Patrick McDonald

Source link

Rory McIlroy became the No. 1 player in the Official World Golf Rankings for the ninth time in his career in 2022, yet many still considered his year a failure because he did not win one of the four major championships in which he played. McIlroy could have won 15 tournaments, but without moving his major total from four to five, his campaign would have been deemed a disappointment to some. 

Is this fair? I’m not here to debate that. That’s a different topic for a different article for a different day. What I want to discuss is whether this merry-go-round for McIlroy of playing great golf but coming up short in the four events that matter most will ever end.

Will Rory McIlroy, once thought to be a future seven- or eight- (or 10-time?) major winner get back on the proper side of the ledger at one of the four majors in 2023 or at any point beyond that?

Here are two things that are surprising about McIlroy’s career: 1) He hasn’t had that many great chances at major championships (we’ll discuss this in more depth in a moment), and 2) Nearly a decade and a half into his career, he says he feels like he’s searching once again for his first major win.

“My last major championship was before [wife] Erica and I started going out; it was before my ankle injury and my back injury; it was before so many things that are now a part of my life,” McIlroy told Paul Kimmage of the Independent this fall. “I’m almost a different person. And I’ve been reflecting on this for the last couple of months and I think that’s a good thing. I feel like I’m trying to win my first major again, and there’s an enthusiasm and a fire about the chase again.”

This undoubtedly is true. McIlroy is extrinsically motivated, and while an external goal as big as this might be an albatross for some, for McIlroy it lights a flame. The carrot in front of him, it seems, is clearer than it’s been in several years. There is a world in which, perhaps, McIlroy wins multiple batches of major championships.

What’s also true, at least statistically, is that McIlroy is playing the best golf of his entire career. His last 50 rounds have represented, in terms of strokes gained, his best 50-round stretch of all time, including the periods of time in which he won his first four majors.

This leads us back to the first point, which is that McIlroy hasn’t had as many amazing performances at majors as you might have expected. As an aside, he has not had that many close calls, either, and those are categorically different than amazing performances. Before 2022, McIlroy had had a 25% chance to win a major going into the final round just five times in his career. He converted four of those.

In terms of great performances at majors, McIlroy had gained between 4-5 strokes — which is a lot but not an absurd amount — on major fields four times prior to 2022. He won all four majors. Statistically speaking, things had mostly gone his way at the majors when he played good golf (remember, Phil Mickelson once gained 6.6 strokes on a major field and lost). If his four major wins were 50-50 balls, McIlroy had come down with all of them.

This year’s second at the Masters and third at The Open were the two best performances McIlroy has ever had without converting them into wins (4.22 and 3.98 SG respectively).

To go deeper on this, we turn to Data Golf’s expected majors statistic, which shows how many majors you were expected to win based on your major performance in a given year. For example: If you gain 4.5 strokes per round on the field at a major, you are expected to win that major 50% of the time, so your expected major wins number would be 0.5. Add those up based on major performance in a given year, and you get an expected major wins total for that year.

Let’s take a look at McIlroy’s.

This is fascinating. For the first time in his career, McIlroy played well enough to potentially win a major or more and did not do so. Contrast his expected outcome this year with 2022 PGA Champion winner Justin Thomas’, which was 0.11.

In other words, 2022 was the first year of McIlroy’s career in which he’s had an expected win total of greater than 0.1 at the majors and not won one of them. It was — both statistically and anecdotally — the most heartbreaking year of his career when it comes to major championships.

If a great player produces enough expected wins over time, it is, well, expected that he’s going to eventually win. And if you want a glass-half-full view of McIlroy’s year, it comes from his caddie, Harry Diamond. McIlroy said in the Kimmage interview that Diamond is the person who has reminded him of the fact that he’s going to win majors if he continues to play at the clip.

“And it’s obviously a tough loss for him too but he can see the good in it: ‘Rory, you keep doing this and you’re gonna win your majors.’ That was it,” said McIlroy. “‘We’re gonna do this.’ And it was probably something I needed to hear because you can get sucked into that spiral of, ‘It’s been so long … I’ve just had a great opportunity … Am I ever going to do this?'”

Whether McIlroy continues to play at this current clip remains to be seen. But what is nearly definitive is the following: If he does, then he’ll win a fifth major and perhaps more after that. Of the 19 players to put up an expected major total of 0.5 or more in a single year since 2015, 14 of them won major championships. The odds are overwhelmingly in your favor.

Yes, you often still have to close out final rounds, which McIlroy failed to do at The Open in July, but if you’re posting a 0.5 expected major total a year, it’s also possible that one of those is going to be a major where everybody else fades away (think about J.T. at the PGA Championship) and you walk away with a fifth. As always in golf, you can only control what you can control. If McIlroy does next year what he did this year, there might not be a Scottie Scheffler who puts up 4.96 strokes gained per round at Augusta. Hell, there might not be a Cam Smith who posts 4.47 at The Open. Four could become six in an instant.

So while McIlroy’s major drought is about to hit nine years, his renewed desire has some numbers around it, and they’re pointing toward an optimistic 2023. Sure, the famine may never end, but Diamond is right, this kind of play — regardless of what anyone else does — almost certainly means that at some point it will.

Source link

Source link