The first-round leader in a golf tournament has a tendency to fade every now and again, but not often do they miss out on the weekend entirely. That’s exactly what happened to Jordan Spieth at the 2023 Sony Open. After sharing the lead with Chris Kirk and Taylor Montgomery in Round 1 with a 6-under 64, Spieith signed for a 5-over 75 in his second round. Missing the cut by a single stroke, Spieth essentially predicted his own demise following the first round.

“I believe I can shoot 5 or 6 under each day out here,” Spieth said on Thursday. “Not to say that that means it’ll happen, but there are other times I would be sitting there going, ‘How do I hold this sh-t together,’ to be honest. Seriously.”

He couldn’t keep it together enough on Friday, and in the process joined a short list of players to plummet from the top of the leaderboard over the course of one round. Spieth became the 10th man since 2010 (and second in the last four years) to miss the cut after holding the first-round lead. As a result, he will take his RV back to the mainland United States where he will tee it up next.

In his place, Chris Kirk has emerged as the solo leader at the 36-hole mark. Standing at 11 under, the former Georgia Bulldog holds a narrow lead over J.J. Spaun and Taylor Montgomery at 10 under. With a number of unproven players in the chasing pack, a life-changing opportunity to enter the winner’s circle has emerged at Waialae Country Club.

The leader

1. Chris Kirk (-11)

Three years ago, Kirk was fighting for his job at the Sony Open. In need of a T3 finish or better, Kirk delivered in the clutch by making birdie on the 72nd hole to secure a T2 result and retaining his PGA Tour card. With a brand new perspective on life, Kirk is now in position to snag his first Tour title in 2,791 days.

“I don’t know if it helps or not, but it definitely helps when I get done playing,” said Kirk on finding peace in his game. “I am able to not judge myself for who I am as a professional golfer. I am able to have my life as a person and my life as professional golfer are two completely independent things. 

“I am able to wake up every day and know that I am doing the right things, that I’m working hard, that I love my family and I am doing the best for them and that all that really matters,” he continued. “Whether you shoot 65 or 75 — you know the 65’s are a lot more fun, I’m not going to lie — but it just puts everything into the right perspective.”

Other contenders

T2. Taylor Montgomery, J.J. Spaun (-10)

T4. Hayden Buckley, David Lipsky (-9)

T6. Ben Taylor, Austion Eckroat, S.H. Kim (-8)

T9. Denny McCarthy, Stephan Jaegar, J.T. Poston, Brendon Todd, Ben Griffin, Maverick McNealy (-7)

Through the first 10 events of the 2022-23 PGA Tour season, there has only been one first-time winner: Adam Svensson at the RSM Classic. With titans like Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy and Tom Kim all winning thus far, the lack of big names this weekend will present a golden chance for a budding star to change the trajectory of his career.

There are 10 winless competitors currently inside the top 15, all of whom will take their crack at raising their first trophy. Winning on the PGA Tour is not easy, and Rookie of the Year front runner Taylor Montgomery put into context just how good these guys truly are in a funny, self-depreciating way after his second round.

“I would say yesterday’s round [was more enjoyable] just because, I mean, I felt like I hit my irons really good,” said Montgomery. “Then I looked at the strokes gained approach and I was like dead even. I’m like, how good are these damn guys with their irons? Like I don’t know. Just an area that I really want to improve … like I think I was 80th and I felt like I hit my irons awesome.”

South Korean stars sent packing early

While Spieth’s demise was more public and a bit of a rollercoaster to say the least, he was not the only favorite to fall short of expectations. The two men who occupied the top two spots on the odds board to begin the week will not be around for the weekend, either. Young superstars Tom Kim and Sungjae Im were unable to get the ball rolling at Waialae CC and ultimately missed the cut in their second starts of the new year.

For Kim, this is his first missed cut since the PGA Championship last May and his first missed cut as a full-time member of the PGA Tour. As for Im, this represents only his fourth missed cut in the last 25 worldwide starts. Both players will look to bounce back quickly at next week’s The American Express in Palm Springs.

2023 Sony Open updated odds and picks

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook

• Taylor Montgomery: 4-1
• Chris Kirk: 9/2
• J.J. Spaun: 11/2
• Hayden Buckley: 12-1
• David Lipsky: 16-1
• J.T. Poston: 18-1
• Maverick McNealy: 22-1
• Denny McCarthy: 30-1
• S.H. Kim: 35-1
• Brendon Todd: 35-1
• Ben Taylor: 35-1
• Stephan Jaegar: 35-1

There is certainly some unknown with the names listed above. Only Kirk, Spaun, Poston and Todd have won on the PGA Tour before, two of those names pique my interest. I have been keen on Spaun from the start of the week, and if not for an errant tee shot on the par-5 9th, he would be leading this golf tournament. He remains a fair price — as does Poston, who looks to be in form to make a weekend run from four strokes back.

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In what could have been a letdown week for the PGA Tour, a superstar emerged on the first day of the Sony Open and shares the lead going into Friday’s second round.

Jordan Spieth shot a 64 at Honolulu’s Waialae Country Club on Thursday and is locked up with Chris Kirk and Taylor Montgomery atop the leaderboard, one ahead of a group of six other golfers after play was suspended due to darkness. Though Spieth has won in Hawaii before at the Tournament of Champions, he has never won this particular event. A win here, however, could portend a monstrous 2023 for the three-time major winner.

Let’s take a look at his round along with what to expect the rest of the week.

The leaders

T1. Jordan Spieth, Chris Kirk, Taylor Montgomery (-6): Warning: This is going to be a very Spieth-heavy article (for obvious reasons). The good news for the Golden Child is that he’s leading a golf tournament. The bad news is that he nearly needed to lead the field in putting to do so. Spieth nearly had a perfectly clean card Thursday only sullying it with a bogey on the par-4 13th hole. He said after his round that the putter is starting to feel good again.

“Half my putts today were like, ‘Wow, I knew exactly where that was going.’ Some of them went in and some of them didn’t, and the others I didn’t and I made some of them,” Spieth said. “It’s just — but I know once I get to a certain feel through the ball that I can beat the field. I can be No. 1 in strokes gained for the week because I know what that feels like.

“So I’m just trying to get that way. It’s getting there, and that’s exciting.”

The numbers agree. Spieth’s 50-round rolling average in strokes gained putting is above PGA Tour average (0.0 SG) for the first time since the Texas Open last year. 

I’m not sure Spieth has anything to prove to anyone given that he’s already won three majors and 13 times before turning 30. But a win here and a little momentum rolling into a big time stretch of golf leading into the Masters would certainly elevate him in my mind back to somebody who could feasibly be the No. 1 player in the world by the end of the year. A long way to go, and he needs to hit it a bit better than he did today, but something is certainly brewing.

Other contenders

T4. Harris English, Denny McCarthy, Brendon Todd, David Lipsky, Rory Sabbatini (-5)

T11. Stewart Cink, K.J. Choi, Cam Davis (-4)

We could talk about English (which we do below), but how about Cink and Choi (combined age 101) in the mix at this event! Both shot 66s and both did it by gaining strokes in every statistical category, which is remarkable.

Also, Sabbatini’s scripting on Thursday was all-time.

Quote(s) of the day

Spieth had some gems after his 64. The first was about where his game is at compared to where it has been in recent years.

“I believe I can shoot 5 or 6 under each day out here,” Spieth said. “Not to say that that means it’ll happen, but there are other times I would be sitting there going, ‘How do I hold this shit together,’ to be honest. Seriously.”

I can’t think of a better way to sum up his entire career.

The second was a big-time flex following that quote about his game and the revelation that he and his family recently purchased an RV to travel around to PGA Tour events.

Q: When was the last time you flew coach?

Spieth: “The 27th — oh, coach, sorry, no. … I thought you said commercial.”

Sure, sure, sure.

Harris English resurfaces

Harris English was out for much of 2022 with an injury, and it’s clear that he’s had a difficult time bouncing back. In 15 starts since returning last June, English has just one top 10 finish (the Fortinet Championship in September). His 65 in Round 1 marked just the third time he’d gained at least 4.4 strokes on the field in a single round since the summer of 2021. English said after his round that this is as close to 100% as he’s felt in a long time so hopefully this is the start of a nice run for him in 2023.

2023 Sony Open updated odds and picks

• Jordan Spieth: 4-1
• Taylor Montgomery: 8-1
• Harris English: 14-1
• Chris Kirk: 18-1
• Denny McCarthy: 20-1
• Cam Davis: 20-1

This is a tough board. I don’t particularly love anybody on it, but if you made me choose, I think Davis at 20-1 is really interesting. He’s just two back and led the field from tee to green on Thursday. A big time year from him wouldn’t be a surprise at all, and it’s very easy to envision — even if his game doesn’t seemingly fit Waialae perfectly — to envision him starting to roll this weekend.

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At the 2023 Tournament of Champions, it is not a victor from the 2021-22 season that occupies the top of the leaderboard, but a prolific winner, nevertheless. Collin Morikawa commands the solo lead at 16 under midway through the action at the Plantation Course at Kapalua as the two-time major champion has looked rejuvenated with the putter in hand.

A top three-iron player on the PGA Tour each of the last three seasons, Morikawa’s putter has often held the keys to victory. If he putts well, he seriously threatens to enter the winner’s circle. If he doesn’t, an appearance on the third or fourth page of the leaderboard usually takes shape.

This week the former is unfolding as the introduction of putting coach Stephen Sweeney and short-game guru Parker McLachlin to his inner circle is already paying dividends. Over the weekend, the short game will need to continue to cash in if he is to enter the winner’s circle for the first time since November 2022 and for the first time in the U.S. since February 2021.

It will be no easy task as he is followed closely behind by Tournament of Champions debutant J.J. Spaun and reigning PGA Tour Player of the Year Scottie Scheffler at 14 under. Jordan Spieth, Tom Kim, Jon Rahm and Matt Fitzpatrick all find themselves on the first page of the leaderboard and within five strokes of Morikawa with 36 holes to play.

The leader

1. Collin Morikawa (-16)

Morikawa may not have won in 2022, but statistically, he was the exact same from a strokes-gained perspective as he was in 2021 when he won three times. This week, he leads the field in strokes gained putting, gaining nearly four strokes with the flat stick through two rounds, and combined with his buttery iron play has made for a lethal one-two punch. As someone who typically lags behind the competition on the greens, it is this club which will make or break the world No. 11’s first start of the year.

Other contenders

T2. Scottie Scheffler, J.J. Spaun (-14)

4. Jordan Spieth (-13)

5. Tom Kim (-12)

T6. Matt Fitzpatrick, Jon Rahm (-11)

T8. Luke List, Tony Finau, Corey Conners, Aaron Wise (-10) 

What more is there to say about Tom Kim? Every time it appears as if the course is unsuitable for his game or the competition is too stiff, he pops up on the first page of the leaderboard. Paired with former world No. 1 Rahm on Friday, Kim looked at ease despite letting his fair share of birdie opportunities fall by the wayside. Still only four strokes off the pace of Morikawa, if he is to win, not only would it be his third victory in his very young PGA Tour career, but the 20-year-old would also be following in the footsteps of a rather big name (Tiger Woods).

Scheffler looks to regain world No. 1 status

The former world No. 1 is in position to return to the top spot in the world over the weekend should he finish in a two-way tie for third or better. In order for him to do so, Scheffler will need the putter to begin to cooperate as he currently leads the field in strokes gained tee to green. 

In the 16 starts following his victory at The Masters, Scheffler has averaged -0.35 strokes gained putting per round. Through two rounds at Kapalua, he has posted -0.69 strokes gained putting per round and ranks 30th in the field. A turnaround with this club could lead to a win and ascending to No. 1 in the world again.

2023 Tournament of Champions updated odds and picks

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook

• Collin Morikawa: 2-1
• Scottie Scheffler: 13/5
• Jordan Spieth: 7-1
• Jon Rahm: 17/2
• J.J. Spaun: 12-1
• Tom Kim: 14-1
• Matt Fitzpatrick: 22-1
• Tony Finau: 28-1

This is tough. Conventional wisdom suggests Morikawa regresses on the greens, but that is without knowing the staying power of this new-found confidence in his putting stroke. This would also mean Scheffler shows improvement, which I believe to be the more likely scenario, and at just shorter than 3-1 is a worthwhile investment. 

Spieth continues to be a human rollercoaster and Rahm is beginning to show similar characteristics making me uneasy about the idea of backing either of them. Unsure if Kim can continue this rapid ascension, if itching for a longer price, my money would be on Finau at 28-1 with the hope of a hot putting performance over the weekend.

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The first round of the 2023 Tournament of Champions was everything you’d want from the opening event of a calendar year: Superstars at the top, birdies all over the yard and — of course! — Jordan Spieth doing his normal unicycle ride while juggling flaming torches.

A trio of leaders sit at the top of the field as Collin Morikawa, Jon Rahm and J.J. Spaun all co-lead at 9 under on the par-73 Kapalua course. A crowded pack that includes Tom Kim, Tom Hoge, Sungjae Im and Scottie Scheffler is hot on their heels, however. That means there’s plenty of star power capable of making a run over the next three days. 

We’ll dive into their rounds below, as well as what to expect the rest of the week from this loaded field. With the first event of 2023 underway, let’s dive into the first round of the Tournament of Champions. 

The leaders

T1. Jon Rahm, J.J. Spaun, Collin Morikawa (-9): Rahm followed his 33-under performance a year ago with a 9-under 63 on Thursday, and he now has 40 birdies and two eagles in his last 90 holes at Kapalua. After playing the front nine in 31, he got into a bothersome spot on the back with a bogey at the par-4 14th. That bogey set him back a bit, but he closed with three birdies in his last four holes, including a near-eagle at the last hole that turned into an easy bird.

Rahm is going to be extraordinarily difficult to keep up with if he putts like he did on Thursday when he led the field at nearly four strokes gained on the round (Matt Fitzpatrick and Viktor Hovland were second best at 2.07). He likely won’t putt like that, but good luck to the field against somebody who is averaging 8.4 strokes under par in his last five rounds here.

Other contenders

4. Tom Kim (-8)

T5. Matt Fitzpatrick, Aaron Wise, Tom Hoge, Mackenzie Hughes, Sungjae Im, Scottie Scheffler (-7)

Scheffler was probably the most interesting out of this group. He putted horribly — he lost nearly two strokes on the greens and made one putt over 5 feet — but he still shot 66. That’s scary coming from the No. 2 player in the world. Scheffler has something at stake here beyond winning, too. He needs a top-three finish to regain the No. 1 ranking in the world from Rory McIlroy, who is not playing this week at Kapalua.

Kim exceeding expectations

It probably shouldn’t surprise me that Kim shot 65, but it still does. As bullish as I am on him as a person and a potential star, I’m equally dubious that his statistical profile meets the modern thriving top-10 player. And yet, at every level he’s played, he’s continued to win and win and win. In 81 OWGR starts, he has eight wins, and his PGA Tour winning percentage is slightly better. I want to be wrong about him in the long term because he’s so much fun to write about and cover (see below), but I have to say I didn’t necessarily see this round coming from him at Kapalua.

Shot of the day

Jordan Spieth had a very Jordan Spieth round. He missed a 2-foot putt but also took a full swing from 33 feet away on the 15th hole for par following some problems in the bunker on his third shot. If you’ve ever tried to take a full swing with any club from 30 feet, it’s basically impossible to hole the shot, but here we are.

Spieth also had an amazing exchange in which he asked two gentleman at the event if they could tone down the wagering chatter while he was putting. A very normal early season start for Spieth.

Shot of the day, Part II 

The hole-out eagle was great, but Kim asking the cameras if they caught it was even better.

Morikawa is fine

I recently wrote about some of the consternation surrounding Collin Morikawa at the end of 2022, a year in which he did not win. This stat from Data Golf should sum up how I feel about where he’s at right now:

• Strokes gained 2020-21 season: 1.41 (3 wins)
• Strokes gained 2021-22 season: 1.41 (0 wins)

Furthermore, Morikawa’s ceiling didn’t really change. He went from third to sixth in the world in 95th percentile rounds. In other words, his best stuff was still among the best stuff of other top-10 players in the world. What did change is that he didn’t win, which can be attributed to so many other things (luck, good bounces, field makeup etc.). Morikawa was undervalued overall coming into 2023, and though he won’t play as well as he did on Thursday for the rest of the year, I think it’s emblematic of what we could be in for with him this year. There’s still time to buy low.

2023 Tournament of Champions updated odds and picks

• Jon Rahm: +240
• Collin Morikawa: +650
• Scottie Scheffler: 8-1
• Tom Kim: 12-1
• Sungjae Im: 14-1
• Tony Finau: 16-1
• Matt Fitzpatrick: 16-1
• Jordan Spieth: 22-1
• Viktor Hovland: 22-1
• Aaron Wise: 22-1

To the surprise of nobody, I’m in on Spieth at 22-1. He plays great at this golf course, and he’s helped when he has a lot of external things going on (slope, wind, etc.) because it gets him out of his own head. He didn’t even putt well on Thursday and still found a way to shoot 67. In terms of the leaders, Morikawa at +650 is the play for me. Rahm’s putting round was magnificent, which won’t continue, and Morikawa is still being a tad undervalued because he’s coming on off a year in which he didn’t win at all.

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There was a brief moment in the final round of the 2022 Hero World Challenge when Viktor Hovland was joined atop the leaderboard. When playing competitor Scottie Scheffler holed out for eagle on the par-5 6th, the event’s defending champion was forced to answer, and answer he did.

Converting an opportunity of his own from roughly 15 feet, Hovland carded his second birdie in his opening six holes to remain out in front by a single stroke. Tacking on another birdie on the following hole and rounding out his inner nine with a pair of pars, Hovland saw his lead balloon to as many as five.

While his closest pursuer would change throughout the second nine among Scheffler, Xander Schauffele and Cameron Young, who were making runs ahead of the final pair, Hovland stood pat. A few nervy moments — namely on the 72nd hole — ultimately resulted in a back-nine 36, but was enough for the 25-year-old to finish the week at 16 under and successfully defend his Hero World Challenge crown from a year ago.

“It’s frickin nerve-wracking,” Hovland said on trying to close out a tournament. “I was leading by five after the turn and you’re just never that comfortable. I didn’t play all that great on the back nine but it was good enough.”

Joining only Tiger Woods in winning the Hero World Challenge in back-to-back years, it may now be time to remove Hovland from the best young player of this generation conversation and insert him into the best player in the world debate. Having previously reached as high as world No. 3, he is now seven times a winner worldwide — more than Scheffler, Will Zalatoris, Collin Morikawa and Sam Burns. While his triumphs lack the lore of some of his counterparts, the quantity is nevertheless impressive.

Twice a winner in The Bahamas, twice at Mayakoba, two more in Europe and once in Puerto Rico, it is a kid from Norway who has staked his claim as the king of the tropics. As strong a ball striker you’ll find, consistent improvements around the green combined with the implementation of aim point on the greens make the now world No. 9’s future prospects all the more intriguing.

“I guess we’ll find out,” Hovland said on what this win will do for his 2023 season. “The short career that I’ve had, I’ve tend to play very well later in the year and earlier in the year. The next goal is to try keep playing like this throughout the year. It’s fun to end the year with a win and kind of sit on the couch for a couple weeks with a smile on your face.”

While his demeanor on the golf course and ever-present wide smile may not match the ferociousness of his music selection, perhaps soon it will. An emphatic fist pump following his winning putt gave us a glimmer of this and showed the meaningfulness of finishing atop a 20-man field in The Bahamas. While not a PGA Tour event nor DP World Tour event, it was a tournament filled with the best players in the world and served as a strong reminder that Hovland is firmly among them. Grade: A+

Here are the grades for the rest of the leaderboard at the 2022 Hero World Challenge

2. Scottie Scheffler (-14): What a good ending to what was truly one of the great years in modern PGA Tour history. Though this doesn’t count toward his PGA Tour total of 13 top 10s in 2022, it’s still emblematic of the 12 months Scheffler has put together. Though he’s not technically the best player in the world at this moment, you could (and I probably would) argue that if you look at the last year of golf, nobody on the planet has been better. Grade: A

6. Collin Morikawa (-9): Morikawa didn’t really need a nice week, but a year after he kicked away a chance to take the No. 1 ranking in the world, it was good to see him thrive even if he came up a bit short of his first title of 2022. A confidence-boosting event after an up-and-down year will be useful to Morikawa, who goes into 2023 a bit on the undervalued side. Not much has changed with him, though. He hasn’t fallen off a cliff statistically, nor is he in a bad spot. If anything, public opinion went too far after he won two of his first eight majors and now it has swung too far the other way. This is a good opportunity to buy low on somebody I believe is one of the eight best players in the world. Grade: A-

T8. Jon Rahm (-5): It wasn’t the tournament I expected from Rahm given that he came into the week having been beaten by four players in his last four starts worldwide. Was it a bad week? I don’t know about that. Rahm still tied or beat 12 of the 20 best players in the world this week and goes into 2023 with probably the highest ceiling of anyone not named “McIlroy.” Grade: B-

15. Jordan Spieth (+1): Should we draw some broader conclusion as it relates to Spieth’s 15th place finish this week in the Bahamas? History says no, but also Spieth’s history says no. He finished last at this tournament this time a year ago and went on to have a solid 2022 that included a victory and six top 10s. A bad week for him at the Hero, but it doesn’t change my (always?) bullish outlook for him over the next few months. Grade: D

Tiger Woods (N/A): Big Cat unfortunately did not play in a week in which he was slated to, but it was still awesome to see him cruising around the course, jumping in the booth with Dan Hicks and Paul Azinger to offer commentary and staring down players trying as they tried to somehow hit good shots in front of the best to ever do it. If that’s all we get from Tiger going forward, I’m still going to be a big fan of that dynamic (and perhaps even more so than if he was playing). Grade: A

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The conditions were ripe for the picking at Albany in the third round of the 2022 Hero World Challenge. With players jockeying for position for much of the day, it was the overnight leader Viktor Hovland who ultimately made the biggest of moves. Carding 10 birdies against two bogeys, the world No. 12 enjoyed the round of the tournament, signing for an 8-under 64 to sit at 13 under and extend his lead to three strokes.

“It was great, I just kept making birdies,” said Hovland. “It was weird. Midway through the round I made a lot and it didn’t really feel like I had made that many. I kind of just kept playing golf and kept making putts. I stood on the 18th hole 9 under par. That was pretty sweet.”

Hovland was the beneficiary of some luck as well; players played the ball down for the first time all week. With Cameron Young, Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas and many more experiencing noticeable mud on their golf balls throughout their rounds, Hovland was able to avoid such fate.

The result for Hovland is a three-stroke lead as he attempts to successfully defend his crown from a year ago. Proving to be capable in this setting, the 25-year-old has already gone back-to-back on the PGA Tour — the 2020 and 2021 World Wide Technology Championship — and looks prime to do so once again.

The leader

1. Viktor Hovland (-13)

Entering the third round with a one-stroke lead, Hovland saw himself drift as many as two strokes behind during his front nine. Riding six back-nine birdies to the round of the tournament, he is now in an enviable spot three clear of the field. Crediting his putting and the calm conditions for the strong play, if the wind continues to lie down on Sunday, another low round could be in store.

“I kind of putted terrible the first two days, but I attribute that a lot to the wind,” said Hovland. “My strengths are really feeling the slope with the feet and when it starts blowing 30 mph, it’s hard to feel balanced enough to feel some of the nuances. Then as well, you have to play with the wind, so it was a lot easier today when it wasn’t as windy and I started everything on line and just felt like I was going to make everything.”

Other contenders

2. Scottie Scheffler (-10)

T3. Justin Thomas, Cameron Young (-8)

T5. Collin Morikawa, Xander Schauffele (-7)

7. Jon Rahm (-4)

8. Sepp Straka (-3)

T9. Sam Burns, Tony Finau (-2)

Morikawa entered the final round a year ago with a six-stroke advantage only to implode and be tracked down by Hovland. One year later, perhaps the two-time major champion can return the favor as he will begin Sunday six off the pace set by the Norwegian. While a victory won’t mean an ascension to world No. 1 like it would have last year, it would mark his first trip to the winner’s circle in more than a year.

“Just go low,” Morikawa said of his game plan for the final round. “I’ve got to make birdies and if I just kind of get things rolling like I did at the beginning of that kind of back nine, hopefully we can just put together 18 of those and post a low number. That’s all I can do really tomorrow. Can’t control those guys.”

Tiger steals show from broadcast booth

The 15-time major champion may not be competing this week, but that doesn’t mean Tiger Woods is out of the public eye. Joining the television broadcast on Saturday, Woods spoke on his motivational level to win again, his son Charlie and even revisited the emotional 150th Open at St. Andrews.

“It all of a sudden just started hitting me that I might not be back here again as a competitor and I started to kind of tear up a little bit,” Woods said of his memorable walk up the 18th hole at the Old Course. “I said, ‘Would you just suck it up and make a birdie here?'”

2022 Hero World Challenge updated odds and picks

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook

• Viktor Hovland: 4/6
• Scottie Scheffler: 14/5
• Justin Thomas: 11-1
• Cameron Young: 16-1
• Xander Schauffele: 20-1
• Collin Morikawa: 28-1

Three strokes is not insurmountable and Hovland is well-aware of this having come back from six in 2021. The dynamic between he and Scheffler in the final pair should be interesting as they were in a similar position at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, which ultimately went the way of the Texan. I think it will come down to just them two as it did last year, and the result will be the same with Hovland raising the trophy. 

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Albany is biting back as the highest 36-hole lead in tournament history was turned in at the halfway point of the 2022 Hero World Challenge. While the seven previous editions of this tournament held in The Bahamas featured birdies in bunches and halfway leads in the double-digits under par range, this year is a stark contrast. Yet despite this change in the scoring environment, it is Viktor Hovland, the man who finished atop the leaderboard a year ago, who is in the same position after 36 holes.

Signing for a 2-under 70 on Friday, the Norwegian stands at 5 under as he was able to separate himself ever so slightly from a stacked leaderboard. With Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa and Cameron Young trailing Hovland by a single stroke, the 25-year-old admitted he expected scores to be better in spite of the conditions. 

“It was tough,” said Hovland. “We are kind of grinding over every 3 or-4-four footer out there, and they certainly don’t feel like gimmes. This wind just makes everything just a little bit harder, even those basic chip shots, they’re not so basic anymore. I still would have expected the scores to be a little bit lower.”

With the wind expecting to persist, world-class ball strikers should only continue to gravitate to the top of the leaderboard. PGA Championship winner Justin Thomas, former world No. 1 Jon Rahm and the red-hot Tony Finau are right behind the initial chasing pack in what is setting up to be a memorable Hero World Challenge to wrap up 2022.

The leader

1. Viktor Hovland (-5)

There have been only three eagles through the first two rounds, and two of them belong to Hovland. Nearly acing the par-4 14th on Thursday, Hovland holed out on the par-5 6th on Friday for his second of the week. With a clear comfort level in the wind and on coastal golf courses, it is no surprise see his name occupying the top spot on the leaderboard, even if he was his biggest critic after his second round.

“I put myself in the fairway a lot, but it’s kind of strange, like I knew it was windy and I feel like I missed so many putts. And I still don’t feel like I’m hitting it very good, like I’m not comfortable over the ball, but the ball’s going straight and I’m giving myself looks,” said Hovland. “It just doesn’t feel that great, and I’m missing a lot of putts, and somehow we ended up at 2 under today, so yeah, happy with that.”

Other contenders

T3. Xander Schauffele, Scottie Scheffler, Cameron Young, Collin Morikawa (-4)

6. Tom Kim (-3)

7. Justin Thomas (-2)

T8. Billy Horschel, Sepp Straka (-1)

T10. Matt Fitzpatrick, Jon Rahm, Tony Finau (E) 

Not all motivations are the same this week as some spend quality vacation time with their families while others put on a serious face. Put world No. 2 Scheffler in the latter category as the Texan has his eyes on the prize amid his second appearance in the Hero World Challenge. Standing only one stroke back, a win would put Scheffler back atop the world of golf — albeit only temporarily as Rory McIlroy will finish 2022 as world No. 1 no matter what.

“I’m definitely not showing up to finish 20th or whatever it is. I’ve been practicing. I like to practice,” said Scheffler. “I took a nice break before we went to South Carolina. I was pretty worn out after the FedExCup, and then the Presidents Cup, so there was a period there for a good five, six weeks where I wasn’t practicing too much. I still go out and play for fun and stuff, but not too much heavy practice. Last probably month or two I’ve been getting after it fairly decent.”

A tale of two nines for Tony Finau

At first glance, it was a ho-hum round of even-par 72 for Finau. However, upon closer inspection, the contrast between his front nine and back nine couldn’t be more different. Carding five bogeys on his outward half, the four-time PGA Tour winner turned in 4-over 40. 

Drifting outside the top 15 of this 20-man field, Finau found his stride coming home. With four birdies against zero dropped shots over his final nine holes, Finau clawed his way back to even par for the tournament and in with a slight chance over the weekend.

2022 Hero World Challenge updated odds and picks

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook

• Viktor Hovland: 4-1
• Scottie Scheffler: 4-1
• Xander Schauffele: 4-1
• Collin Morikawa: 7-1
• Cameron Young: 7-1
• Tom Kim: 11-1
• Justin Thomas: 14-1
• Jon Rahm: 18-1
• Tony Finau: 28-1

It is not often there are three favorites heading into the weekend of a golf tournament. While Hovland holds the slight edge, he is matched on the odds board by Scheffler and Schauffele. With still so much golf to be played and the conditions expecting to continue, I don’t mind taking a shot at a couple players in the chasing pack. Justin Thomas at 14-1 is interesting given his ability to play in the wind, and the same logic goes for Tony Finau at 28-1.

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The best player of one generation had to bow out of the Hero World Challenge earlier this week, but the best player of another one, perhaps, leads the golf tournament after Round 1. Tiger Woods looked on from the television booth Thursday as Tom Kim shot a 3-under 69 to co-lead with Sepp Straka, Collin Morikawa and Viktor Hovland after the first day of this stacked tournament in the Bahamas.

Let’s take a look at Kim’s round and who will be chasing him over the next three days at Albany Golf Club.

The leaders

T1. Tom Kim, Viktor Hovland, Collin Morikawa, Sepp Straka (-3): On a windswept day off the Pacific Ocean, ball-strikers shined. And while I’m exaggerating about Kim being the best player of his generation, I might also not be exaggerating. He had the cleanest card of the day with 15 pars and three birdies as he looks for what would be his third win since August.

It’s fair to say that nobody even knew who Tom Kim was eight months (maybe even five months ago), and now he’s on the precipice of having three OWGR wins in the last five months of the year, including an event hosted by Tiger Woods.

“I’m very grateful for it,” he said. “I definitely don’t take it for granted and I’m extremely grateful to be 20 years old and to play on the PGA Tour. “But I’ve worked really hard for it and I’m enjoying every moment out there, so it’s really fun.”

Other contenders

5. Sam Burns (-2)

T6. Tommy Fleetwood, Max Homa (-1)

T9. Tony Finau, Justin Thomas, Xander Schauffele, Scottie Scheffler (E)

As is evident from the scoring on Thursday — which was about as tough as this golf course gets), this board is bunched and there should be a ton of movement on Friday and Saturday going into Sunday. Fleetwood interests me here and not just because he was one of my picks coming into the week. He’s been as hot as anyone in the world over the last few months (three top fives in his last three starts), and he could take some year-end momentum into what I believe could be a monstrous 2023.

J.T.’s card, it should be mentioned, was a beautiful disaster. Six birdies were offset by two bogeys and two doubles. Add it all up, and you get an even-par 72. He’s very much still in the mix.

Morikawa’s redemption

This time last year, Collin Morikawa — who got married recently — took a six-stroke lead into the final round of this event. With a win, he would have become the No. 1 player in the world. He lost, Hovland won and Morikawa has yet to reach that top spot. He can’t do so this week, but after a year in which he felt like he was answering a ton of questions about what’s wrong with his game (answer: nothing), it would be sweet for him to seal the deal on his first win of the year.

“Getting engaged last year, coming back as a married man, it really [is a special place to me],” Morikawa said. “It’s obviously a beautiful location to be in the Bahamas beginning of December and obviously to end this season hopefully on a good note, it’s just kind of give it all you’ve got. 2022’s been a weird year for me, golf-wise it’s been a weird year, but hopefully we can kind of turn that around and slowly start to see some things towards the end of the year.”

2022 Hero World Challenge odds, picks

• Viktor Hovland: 13/2
• Collin Morikawa: 7-1
• Tom Kim: 7-1
• Jon Rahm: 10-1
• Tony Finau: 11-1
• Sam Burns: 11-1
• Scottie Scheffler: 11-1

Rahm is getting a ton of respect after shooting a 1-over 73 and deservedly so. You could make the case that he’s been the best player in the world for the last four months. I prefer somebody a bit down the board, though. Fleetwood is still 18-1 despite a nice start, and there’s more value in playing him than in Morikawa, Hovland or Rahm. Finau at 11-1 is also sneaky nice after the year (and fall) he’s had.

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After 70 starts and a trip back to the Korn Ferry Tour, Adam Svensson is officially a winner on the PGA Tour. Emerging from a crowded leaderboard at the 2022 RSM Classic, the Canadian staked his claim on the final event of the calendar year with a flawless final round of 6-under 64 to get the better of Sahith Theegala, Brian Harman and Callum Tarren by two strokes.

“It’s not even real right now. I’m just so happy. I’ve just put so much work in and to win on the PGA Tour means everything to me,” Svensson said while attempting to hold back tears. “It’s been an up-and-down journey. I’ve had lows, I’ve had highs, but I just kept believing in myself and here I am.”

Svensson was one of many players to hold a share of the lead Sunday at Sea Island as a total of 16 players entered the final day within three strokes of the lead. Making just one birdie in his opening seven holes, it wasn’t until the middle of his round when the 28-year-old began to heat up in the chilly Georgia weather.

Adding three birdies in a four-hole stretch from holes Nos. 8-11, Svensson reached 17 under and matched the clubhouse lead set by Tarren. Unable to take advantage of the gettable par-5 15th, Svensson quickly made amends with back-to-back birdies on 16 and 17 to separate himself from Theegala and Harman who were surging in the group ahead.

“I just tried to make no bogeys today. I didn’t even look at the scoreboard until 16. I just said if I make no bogeys, I am putting well, so that’s kind of what I did,” said Svensson. “I was actually feeling pretty good over them [the birdie putts on Nos. 16 and 17]. The one on 17 I didn’t think was going to go in and somehow the golf gods let in.”

Finishing the tournament at 19 under, Svensson utilized a red hot weekend performance to claim his first title on the PGA Tour. Carding 13 birdies and an eagle against just one bogey over his final 36 holes, the 28-year-old will now reap the benefits that come with a trip to the winner’s circle.

Ascending to sixth in the FedEx Cup standings, Svensson will also receive invitations into the Tournament of Champions, Players Championship, Masters and PGA Championship. For a player yet to compete in a major championship, simply put, this triumph is career changing.

“Two years ago I made a decision to give it 100%,” Svensson said. “There was no going back, I was quitting because I was going the wrong way. I’d say it was a good choice.” Grade: A+

Here is a breakdown of the rest of the leaderboard at the 2022 RSM Classic

T2. Sahith Theegala (-17): It was all setting up for Theegala’s breakthrough as he was a member of the penultimate group and thus avoided the final round pressure of bringing up the rear. Getting off to a solid start, the 24-year-old will look back to a double bogey on the par-5 seventh as his eventual downfall. Fighting back with four birdies on his back nine, Theegala shared the lead at one point before ultimately falling two strokes short of Svensson. Grade: A

T5. Cole Hammer (-15): The former standout at Texas had a rough start to his professional career. Narrowly missing out on conditional status on the Korn Ferry Tour, Hammer was playing with house money this week as he gained entry into the tournament through a sponsor’s exemption. He took full advantage of the opportunity and collected the first of what should be many top-10 finishes. For his efforts, Hammer will have a place to play to begin next year as he is now firmly in the field for the Sony Open. 

“Pretty darn content with what happened out there,” Hammer said. “Yesterday I had a tough start, but fought back. Missed a few putts coming down the stretch, but gave myself a chance. Was only four back going into today, the leaderboard was jam packed and knew a good round would go a long way in some tough conditions. I’m just so proud of the way that I fought and battled out there. It gives me a lot of confidence moving forward and leaves a great taste in my mouth going to the offseason.” Grade: A

T5. Joel Dahmen (-15): The 2022-23 season marks the final campaign Dahmen will be fully exempt on the PGA Tour for his victory at the 2021 Corales Championship. With added motivation and pressure to play well, Dahmen did just that throughout the entirety of the swing season. With his T5 result at the RSM Classic, he ended his fall with three straight top-10 finishes and inside the top 20 of the FedEx Cup standings.

“I was already in a pretty good position, I was way ahead of the game, I guess, but to gather more points today was huge,” Dahmen said. “You never want to take weeks off because you always feel like you’re falling behind, but with the good finish today it will be easier to take time off.” Grade: A

T5. Seamus Power (-15): It is not Rory McIlroy, but rather Power who will enter 2023 atop the FedEx Cup standings. Winning the Bermuda Championship and adding close calls at Mayakoba and now Sea Island, the Irishman put himself squarely on the radar of captain Luke Donald for the 2023 Ryder Cup in Rome while rising to the top of the PGA Tour season-long race. Impressive as it may be, moving forward it will be interesting to see if Power can begin to contend in elevated events where the competition is much steeper. Grade: A-

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The final round of the final event of the 2022 calendar year is set up to be a doozy. With a crowded leaderboard exiting Round 3 at the 2022 RSM Classic, it is Patrick Rodgers and Ben Martin who will be tasked with successfully converting a 54-hole lead as the pair enters Sunday in possession of a slim margin at 14 under. 

With one career victory between the two of them — Martin won the 2014 Shriners Children’s Open — nothing will be handed to them. Martin entered this week at Sea Island simply hoping to find some form since the fall swing has largely been unkind to the former Clemson Tiger. Missing three of six cuts and failing to collect a single top-40 result, Martin has relied on the good vibes and familiarity with the property to turn his game around.

Rodgers, on the other hand, has been trending towards this very moment coming off of five straight top-30 finishes. With one of those finishes coming in the form of a T3 at the Bermuda Championship, Sunday will represent yet another opportunity for the 30-year-old to snatch his long-awaited first career victory on the PGA Tour.

Rodgers will not be alone in hoping to enter the winner’s circle for the first time. Twelve non-winners, including Sahith Theegala, Taylor Pendrith and Harry Higgs, will go into the final round within three strokes of the lead. With so much on the line and so much inexperience in contention, the final round of the 2022 RSM Classic has the potential to be the most memorable one of the young 2022-23 season.

The leaders

T1. Patrick Rodgers, Ben Martin (-14)

He was a standout at Stanford and contended plenty over his PGA Tour career, but Rodgers remains without a win. Slowly but surely, he’s gained more experience by playing himself into contention on Sundays. Will this finally be his time? 

Rodgers ranks second in strokes gained approach and sixth in strokes gained putting in two rounds on the Seaside Course. If he’s able to continue operating in such a capacity in the final round, it is conceivable he will finally raise a trophy on the PGA Tour.

Other contenders

T3. Andrew Putnam, Adam Svensson, Sahith Theegala (-13)

T6. Brian Harman, Taylor Pendrith, Taylor Montgomery, Alex Smalley, Kevin Streelman, Beau Hossler, Harry Higgs (-12)

T13. Ben Taylor, Seamus Power, Callum Tarren, Will Gordon, Harry Higgs (-11)

A total of 16 players will enter the final round within three strokes of the lead, making it anyone’s tournament to win. There is plenty on the line, including 500 FedEx Cup points, exemptions through the 2025 season and entry into major championships. 

Canadian Adam Svensson made the most of his Moving Day in Round 3 by signing for an 8-under 62. Without a major championship start on his résumé, the 28-year-old will be featured in the final grouping on Sunday with a chance to change that and capture his first victory on the PGA Tour.

“I knew I was playing well, I just kept plugging along,” said Svensson. “I knew one bogey, it’s all good, I’m going to make some birdies. But yeah, my game’s feeling really good and I just kept hitting it by the pin and if they don’t go in, they don’t go in, and making some putts.”

Can the Sea Island mafia finally break through?

A large contingent of Sea Island residents teed it up this week, including Harris English, J.T. Poston and Keith Mitchell. Without much group success in their home event, fellow locals Brian Harman and Will Gordon will pose as Sea Island’s best chance to break this hometown dry spell on Sunday.

“You know, they say a local’s never won here, but I mean, [Kevin] Kisner spends all kinds of time here. [Chris] Kirk lived here for seven or eight years,” said Harman. “I don’t think about it too much. There’s a lot of talent on this island and one of us is going to win this tournament sooner or later.”

2022 RSM Classic updated odds and picks

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook

• Patrick Rodgers: 5-1
• Sahith Theegala: 7-1
• Andrew Putnam: 7-1
• Ben Martin: 9-1
• Brian Harman: 10-1
• Taylor Montgomery: 11-1
• Adam Svensson: 12-1
• Taylor Pendrith: 16-1
• Alex Smalley: 18-1
• Beau Hossler: 22-1
• Kevin Streelman: 25-1
• Seamus Power: 28-1
• Will Gordon: 35-1
• Harry Higgs: 35-1
• Callum Tarren: 60-1
• Ben Taylor: 65-1

All of those listed above are within three strokes of the lead and could realistically win the 2022 RSM Classic. Despite the wide-open nature of the event, it is still Putnam with whom we will rock. The 33-year-old hardly had his best stuff on Saturday, yet was still able to sign for an under-par round and keep himself in this tournament. Putnam will be a part of the penultimate group, and given his consistent well-rounded game throughout the fall should be more than comfortable in this setting.

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