Hideki Matsuyama will try to defend his crown this week when the 2023 Sony Open tees off Thursday at Waialae Country Club in Honolulu. Matsuyama aims to become the first golfer to go back-to-back at Waialae since Jimmy Walker (2014-15). Matsuyama stormed back from five strokes down with nine holes to play last year and beat Russell Henley with an eagle on the first playoff hole. Henley and Walker also are in a 144-player Sony Open 2023 field that is headlined by Matsuyama, Jordan Spieth and Tom Kim. The Sony Open has been played at the Honolulu course since 1965 and has followed the Sentry Tournament of Champions on Kapalua since 1999. Nineteen of the 39 golfers are making their way over from Maui. 

Caesars Sportsbook lists Sungjae Im as the 10-1 favorite in its latest 2023 Sony Open odds, followed closely by Kim at 11-1. Half a dozen other golfers are shorter than 25-1, with Matsuyama (15-1) and Spieth (16-1) among them. Brian Harman (16-1), Tom Hoge (20-1), Corey Conners (20-1) and Henley (22-1) are the others, and Walker is priced at a whopping 500-1 in the Sony Open 2023 field. Before you lock in any 2023 Sony Open picks, be sure you check out the PGA Tour predictions and best bets from SportsLine golf insider Patrick McDonald.

After spending time at FanSided and NBC Sports EDGE, McDonald joined CBS Sports as a golf writer in the spring of 2022. Now covering the sport from a broader perspective, McDonald still likes to dip his toes into the betting pools on a weekly basis on the PGA Tour. 

McDonald takes a measured approach to his outright selections and is having a profitable 2022-23 season in every category. He nailed the Houston Open, backing Tony Finau to win at 25-1, and is up almost 10 units on his plays overall. That’s a profit of almost $1,000 for $100 bettors. The expert also has been on the money on his matchup plays and cashed in huge on Brendan Steele (80-1) as the first-round leader at the Zozo Championship.

The expert finished the 2021-22 season up 42 units on his outright plays, having hit Cameron Smith (22-1) at the Tournament of Champions, Hudson Swafford (250-1) at The American Express, Joaquin Niemann (70-1) at the Genesis Invitational and Justin Thomas (66-1) live at the PGA Championship. Last week he listed Jon Rahm among his top picks, and the 28-year-old shot 10 under on Sunday to capture the win. Anyone who follows McDonald’s advice has been cashing in.

Now, McDonald has studied the 2023 Sony Open field and is locking in his best bets, top sleepers and favorites to avoid. You can head to SportsLine now to see all his PGA picks and predictions.  

Top 2023 Sony Open expert picks

McDonald knows Spieth is one of the top names in this field and among the favorites, but the expert is fading the three-time major champion. The former world No. 1 has 13 tour victories, one in each of the past two years, but hasn’t played Waialae since 2019. He missed the cut that year, shooting 73 in the first round. The course seems to be a bad fit, as he lacks accuracy off the tee. He hit 56% of fairways last season (150th on tour) and was 62nd in greens in regulation and 155th in strokes gained putting. McDonald calls Spieth “an easy pass” for this week.

On the other hand, Kim is the highest-ranked golfer in the field, and McDonald sees why he is among the expected contenders. The 20-year-old’s accuracy is tough to match, and that should be what wins at Waialae. The tight layout demands precision, and Kim is sixth on tour in driving accuracy (72.8%), greens in regulation (76.4%) and scoring average (69.3). He hit 89% of his fairways at the CJ Cup in late October. Kim has two tour victories and three other top-10 finishes in 15 career tour outings, and he has 11 wins worldwide, several in smaller Asian tours. You can see who else to back at Waialae Country Club here.          

How to make 2023 Sony Open picks

Before this week’s PGA Tour event, McDonald has locked in his best bets for the 2023 Sony Open. His outright plays include five major long shots who come in at more than 40-1. One of these players excels on tight courses where accuracy off the tee matters, and if this player can pull off his breakthrough victory he would bring a massive payday of well over 100-1. You can find out who it is, and see the rest of McDonald’s Sony Open picks, predictions, and best bets at SportsLine.

So which 2023 Sony Open picks should you target? Which player has the off-the-tee game to pull off a victory that would pay off at well over 100-1? Check out the odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Patrick McDonald’s top prop picks for Sony Open 2023, all from the expert who is up almost $1,000 on his PGA Tour picks this season, and find out.

2023 Sony Open odds, field, top contenders

See full Sony Open 2023 picks, best bets, and predictions here.

Sungjae Im +1000
Tom Kim +1100
Jordan Spieth +1400
Hideki Matsuyama +1500
Brian Harman +1600
Russell Henley +1800
Tom Hoge +2200
Corey Conners +2200
Adam Scott +3100
Taylor Montgomery +3100
Billy Horschel +3200
Cameron Davis +3300
Kyoung-Hoon Lee +3400
Keegan Bradley +3400
Keith Mitchell +3700
Si Woo Kim +3700
Maverick Mcnealy +3700
J.J. Spaun +4000
Alex Smalley +4500
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +4500
MacKenzie Hughes +5000
Emiliano Grillo +5000
Harris English +5000
J.T. Poston +5000
Denny McCarthy +5000
Matt Kuchar +5000
Webb Simpson +5000
Gary Woodland +5000
Kurt Kitayama +5500
Adam Svensson +5500
Will Gordon +5500
Andrew Putnam +5500
Chris Kirk +6000
Brendan Steele +6500
Hayden Buckley +6500
Brendon Todd +7500
Nick Hardy +8000
Aaron Rai +8500
Davis Thompson +9000
Chun-an Yu +9000
Russell Knox +9500
Greyson Sigg +9500
Patton Kizzire +9500
Ryan Palmer +10000
Robby Shelton +10000
Stephan Jaeger +10000
Justin Suh +11000
Ryan Armour +11000
Troy Merritt +11000
Brandon Wu +11000
Ben Griffin +11000
David Lipsky +12000
Chez Reavie +12000
David Lingmerth +13000
Kevin Streelman +13000
Sam Ryder +13000
Kazuki Higa +14000
Michael Thompson +14000
Lucas Glover +14000
James Hahn +14000
Mark Hubbard +14000
Stewart Cink +14000
Taiga Semikawa +14000
Seonghyeon Kim +14000
Joseph Bramlett +15000
Carl Yuan +15000
Nick Taylor +16000
Brian Stuard +16000
Harry Higgs +16000
Adam Long +16000
Keita Nakajima +16000
Tyson Alexander +16000
MJ Daffue +16000
John Huh +16000
Adam Schenk +17000
Scott Piercy +17000
Cole Hammer +17000
Zac Blair +19000
Ben Taylor +19000
Austin Eckroat +21000
Danny Lee +21000
Peter Malnati +21000
Byeong Hun An +21000
Yuto Katsuragawa +21000

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The full PGA Tour gets rolling again this week when the 2023 Sony Open tees off Thursday at Waialae Country Club in Honolulu. Seven of the world’s top 25 golfers will be in action, with defending champion Hideki Matsuyama and three-time major winner Jordan Spieth among the top names. Rapidly rising young star Tom Kim is the highest-ranked player in the Sony Open field at No. 14, one spot ahead of Spieth. Matsuyama is 21st, while Billy Horschel (18th), Sungjae Im (19th), Brian Harman (23rd) and Keegan Bradley (25th) are also set to compete. Matsuyama made a dramatic comeback on Sunday last year, making up five shots to tie Russell Henley at 23 under. He then hit a 3-wood to 2 feet from 276 yards out on the first playoff hole for an emphatic eagle to close it out.       

The 20-year-old Kim is already a two-time tour winner, and Caesars Sportsbook lists him as the 11-1 favorite in its latest 2023 Sony Open odds, just ahead of Im (12-1)sa. Those four also are the highest-priced golfers in the DraftKings Fantasy rankings, all priced at more than $10,000. Can Matsuyama ($10,100 at DraftKings) find some more magic at Waialae and be a reliable anchor for your 2023 Sony Open Fantasy golf picks? Or would a player like Tom Hoge, who comes off a T-3 last week and is priced at $9,900, give you a better chance to win? Before you make any Fantasy golf rankings or place any bets on the 2023 Sony Open, you need to see the Fantasy golf projections and lineup advice from SportsLine fantasy expert Jim Holliman.

Holliman has been a writer and editor for nearly 25 years and has been playing and following the game closely for more than three decades. The Florida-based writer knows what it takes to win on the PGA Tour and how the players’ games fit the courses.

The golf expert nailed the Tour Championship, saying Rory McIlroy was the only player capable of making up a six-stroke deficit to get past Scottie Scheffler. “He has a lot of ground to make up,” Holliman said, “but he is the most well-rounded player in this field, so if anyone can do it, he can.” The Northern Irishman was actually down by 10 through two holes Sunday but stormed back to claim the title.   

Holliman also had Patrick Cantlay (14-1) among his best bets at the BMW Championship, was behind Will Zalatoris (28-1) at the St. Jude and nailed the Wyndham Championship, with Kim (35-1) among his selections. “It’s a matter of when (not if) he gets his first on the PGA Tour,” Holliman said of Kim. It turned out to be at Sedgefield, where Kim won by five strokes.

The expert also has had a knack for finding the longshots. At the St. Jude, as many top stars went home early, 200-1 longshot Chez Reavie made the weekend. At the 3M Open, the expert tabbed Emiliano Grillo (50-1) as a contender before the Argentinian finished T-2. And before the PGA, he touted Cameron Young (65-1) before his T-3 finish. Anyone who has followed Holliman’s predictions is way up on their golf picks.

Now, Holliman has ranked his top golfers for the 2023 Sony Open, and you’ll really want to see what he has to say. You can only see his Fantasy golf rankings and Sony Open picks at SportsLine.

2023 Sony Open Fantasy golf expert picks

One player Holliman is firmly behind for Fantasy players this week is Kim, even though he is the most expensive player on the board at $10,500. “There’s good reason for the high price, but he’ll be worth it,” the expert says. Kim makes his living hitting the ball straight, and that is exactly what’s needed at Waialae. He also has the mentality to close out victories, as he has 11 worldwide in his career. Many came in smaller events, but winning in any tournament setting takes nerve. He is sixth in driving distance, greens in regulation and scoring average this season.

On the other hand, Holliman is not sold on Matsuyama, even though he is a Masters champion and won here last year. But that was his first top-10 finish in nine tries at Wailalae, and he doesn’t typically have the accuracy or putting prowess needed to win on a course like this. The 30-year-old also has a history of injuries and withdrew from the Houston Open in November. He’s healthy now, but he’s 142nd in strokes gained off the tee and 110th on approach this season. He hasn’t finished higher than T-21, so he won’t justify the cost to take him this week. You can see who else to back this week at SportsLine.

How to set your 2023 Sony Open Fantasy golf rankings

For the 2023 Sony Open, Holliman is touting a sleeper for fantasy rosters who is priced at less than $7,500 at DraftKings and has odds higher than 70-1 to win at Caesars. This golfer hasn’t missed a cut all season and is due for a breakthrough victory that could come this week. You can find out who it is and see the rest of Holliman’s Sony Open fantasy golf picks at SportsLine.

Who wins the 2023 Sony Open, and who are the top players to target for your Fantasy picks? Which overlooked players can help you win your league this week? Visit SportsLine now to get Jim Holliman’s Fantasy golf rankings for the 2023 Sony Open, all from the fantasy expert who has been on fire with his picks, and find out.

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Almost half the PGA Tour field from last week will make the short hop over to Honolulu for the 2023 Sony Open at Waialae Country Club. Nineteen of the 39 players from the Sentry Tournament of Champions are scheduled to tee off Thursday. The top names are three-time major champion Jordan Spieth, defending Sony Open champion Hideki Matsuyama, and 20-year-old rising star Tom Kim. Matsuyama rallied from five shots down with nine holes to play last year before beating Russell Henley in a playoff. It was the second time in three years the Sony Open went to extra holes. Matsuyama shot back-to-back 63’s to post a winning score of 23 under par, and scores are expected to go low again in 2023. The average winning score the past 10 years is 20 under.     

The latest 2023 Sony Open odds from Caesars Sportsbook list Kim as the 12-1 favorite, with Sungjae Im (14-1) and Spieth (16-1) right behind. Others top contenders in the Sony Open 2023 field are Matsuyama (18-1), Henley (22-1), and Tom Hoge (22-1). Before you lock in any 2023 Sony Open picks, be sure you check out the PGA Tour predictions and best bets from SportsLine golf insider Patrick McDonald.

After spending time at FanSided and NBC Sports EDGE, McDonald joined CBS Sports as a golf writer in the spring of 2022. Now covering the sport from a broader perspective, McDonald still likes to dip his toes into the betting pools on a weekly basis on the PGA Tour. 

McDonald takes a measured approach to his outright selections and is having a profitable 2022-23 season in every category. He nailed the Houston Open, backing Tony Finau to win at 25-1, and is up almost 10 units on his plays overall. That’s a profit of almost $1,000 for $100 bettors. The expert also has been on the money on his matchup plays and cashed in huge on Brendan Steele (80-1) as the first-round leader at the Zozo Championship.

The expert finished the 2021-22 season up 42 units on his outright plays, having hit Cameron Smith (22-1) at the Tournament of Champions, Hudson Swafford (250-1) at The American Express, Joaquin Niemann (70-1) at the Genesis Invitational and Justin Thomas (66-1) live at the PGA Championship. Last week he listed Jon Rahm among his top picks, and the 28-year-old shot 10 under on Sunday to capture the win. Anyone who follows McDonald’s advice has been cashing in.

Now, McDonald has studied the 2023 Sony Open field and is locking in his best bets, top sleepers and favorites to avoid. You can head to SportsLine now to see all his PGA picks and predictions.  

Top 2023 Sony Open expert picks

Shockingly, McDonald is fading Spieth, the biggest name in the field and one of the betting favorites. The 29-year-old won on a similar course at Harbour Town last April, but the expert knows that was an aberration. Spieth is not accurate off the tee – he ranked 150th on tour in hitting 56% of fairways last season – and hasn’t been great on approach or on the greens. He didn’t rank in the top 50 on approach anywhere beyond 100 yards. Spieth has missed the cut twice in four appearances at Waialae, including his last time in 2019, and was in the top 20 in the other two.

The expert also knows Kim is the favorite here for a reason. McDonald says Waialae “should be an ideal statistical fit” for the South Korean, who has two PGA Tour victories. He has 11 worldwide wins since 2018, many in smaller Asian tours, and is the highest-ranked player in this field. He is No. 14, one spot ahead of Spieth, and is one of the most accurate players on tour. Kim ranked sixth last season in both driving accuracy (72.8%) and greens in regulation (76.4%). He also was sixth in scoring average (69.3) and comes in off a tie for fifth last week at Kapalua. You can see who else to back at Waialae Country Club here.          

How to make 2023 Sony Open picks

Before this week’s PGA Tour event, McDonald has locked in his best bets for the 2023 Sony Open. His outright plays include five major long shots who come in at more than 40-1. One of these players excels on tight courses where accuracy off the tee matters, and if this player can pull off his breakthrough victory he would bring a massive payday of well over 100-1. You can find out who it is, and see the rest of McDonald’s Sony Open picks, predictions, and best bets at SportsLine.

So which 2023 Sony Open picks should you target? Which player has the off-the-tee game to pull off a victory that would pay off at well over 100-1? Check out the odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Patrick McDonald’s top prop picks for Sony Open 2023, all from the expert who is up almost $1,000 on his PGA Tour picks this season, and find out.

2023 Sony Open odds, field, top contenders

See full Sony Open 2023 picks, best bets, and predictions here.

Tom Kim +1200
Sungjae Im +1400
Jordan Spieth +1600
Hideki Matsuyama +1800
Russell Henley +1800
Tom Hoge +2200
Corey Conners +2200
Brian Harman +2600
Adam Scott +3100
Taylor Montgomery +3100
Billy Horschel +3200
Cameron Davis +3300
Kyoung-Hoon Lee +3400
Keegan Bradley +3400
Keith Mitchell +3700
Si Woo Kim +3700
Maverick Mcnealy +3700
J.J. Spaun +4000
Alex Smalley +4500
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +4500
MacKenzie Hughes +5000
Emiliano Grillo +5000
Harris English +5000
J.T. Poston +5000
Denny McCarthy +5000
Matt Kuchar +5000
Webb Simpson +5000
Gary Woodland +5000
Kurt Kitayama +5500
Adam Svensson +5500
Will Gordon +5500
Andrew Putnam +5500
Chris Kirk +6000
Brendan Steele +6500
Hayden Buckley +6500
Brendon Todd +7500
Nick Hardy +8000
Aaron Rai +8500
Davis Thompson +9000
Chun-an Yu +9000
Russell Knox +9500
Greyson Sigg +9500
Patton Kizzire +9500
Ryan Palmer +10000
Robby Shelton +10000
Stephan Jaeger +10000
Justin Suh +11000
Ryan Armour +11000
Troy Merritt +11000
Brandon Wu +11000
Ben Griffin +11000
David Lipsky +12000
Chez Reavie +12000
David Lingmerth +13000
Kevin Streelman +13000
Sam Ryder +13000
Kazuki Higa +14000
Michael Thompson +14000
Lucas Glover +14000
James Hahn +14000
Mark Hubbard +14000
Stewart Cink +14000
Taiga Semikawa +14000
Seonghyeon Kim +14000
Joseph Bramlett +15000
Carl Yuan +15000
Nick Taylor +16000
Brian Stuard +16000
Harry Higgs +16000
Adam Long +16000
Keita Nakajima +16000
Tyson Alexander +16000
MJ Daffue +16000
John Huh +16000
Adam Schenk +17000
Scott Piercy +17000
Cole Hammer +17000
Zac Blair +19000
Ben Taylor +19000
Austin Eckroat +21000
Danny Lee +21000
Peter Malnati +21000
Byeong Hun An +21000
Yuto Katsuragawa +21000

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Tom Kim and Jordan Spieth shared a tee time on Thursday at the Plantation Course at Kapalua for the first round of the 2023 Tournament of Champions. Signing for rounds of 8-under 65 and 6-under 67, respectively, the two also shared Christmas dinner the previous week — with Kim also acting as babysitter for Spieth’s 14-month-old son, Sammy. 

“The more time I spent with Jordan [Spieth], we kind of became closer friends. I think we shared a plane back from the Hero back to Dallas, so I took the Jordan air,” said Kim, who was still finding his bearings in the U.S. “He was really nice enough to invite me for Christmas. My family wasn’t home and I was kind of by myself. So I got to spend some time with the Spieths and kind of babysit Sammy, which was really cool. It’s been amazing to kind of build a friendship and it was really cool to play with him today.”

After winning twice in a four-tournament stretch on the PGA Tour and starring for the International Team in the 2022 Presidents Cup, Kim spent his short offseason in South Korea to reconnect with family. Overseas for four weeks, he returned to his new base camp in the Dallas-Fort Worth area.

Kim, who is still only 20 years of age, is the newest addition to the crop of PGA Tour stars who call the Dallas-Fort Worth area home. Joining not only Spieth, but Scottie Scheffler, Will Zalatoris and a number of his fellow South Koreans in the Lone Star State, Kim has surrounded himself with some of the best players in the world both on and off the golf course. 

“Tom, actually during the Christmas break, he joined Jordan and his family for Christmas dinner,” said Smylie Kaufman, NBC’s on-course analyst and Spieth’s good friend. “So, these two have actually formed a relationship over the last couple of months, and they’re having a blast out here today.

“Tom is a noted guy who likes to eat some food,” Kaufman continued. “I was told he went back for, not only thirds, but fourths at Christmas dinner.”

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Can the toast of the fall become the major championship (or elevated event) debutante of the spring? That’s the question when it comes to Tom Kim, winner of two post-Open Championship events on the PGA Tour and individual champion (if there was one) of the Presidents Cup in September.

Kim has captivated pretty much everyone who encountered him with not only his buttery approach shots and deft short game, but an electricity that is rare in the golf world. His aura, it seems, is nearly as singular and nonreplicable as his game. 

He is, without question, the best youngest star in golf. The 20-year-old (he won’t be 21 until the U.S. Open at Los Angeles Country Club) is ranked No. 15 in the world and on the radar of even the very best players in the world.

Kim is a bit of an oddity, too. In a world where many of the top young players are making their way with distance and speed, Kim is not that long off the tee. Last year, he didn’t have enough rounds to qualify, but his average drive of 301.1 yards would have been T92 on the PGA Tour, and his club head speed of 110.09 would have ranked 177th. This is not the statistical profile of somebody ranked in the top 20 in the world six months removed from his teenage years.

And yet, the thing Kim does best is perhaps the lost art of winning. He wins a lot. In 81 starts in Official World Golf Ranking events, Kim has eight wins. That’s an enormous number that, while buoyed a bit by playing often on lesser tours, cannot be immediately dismissed because Kim has also won twice in 20 starts on the PGA Tour.

In other words, his winning percentage on the best tour in the world (10%) is actually slightly better than his winning percentage on every other tour in the world (9.8%).

I recently joked that Tom Kim is going to be the richest golfer who has ever lived, which is fun to think about until you realize it actually might not be a joke. The PGA Tour floated a document earlier this year that showed how Jim Furyk (17 wins, one major) would have made more than $600 million in earnings — if his career had started in 2023 — from a variety of different PGA Tour revenue streams.

I’m not saying Kim is going to have Furyk’s career, but if he does, he’s probably going down as the richest golfer of all time (on-course earnings only, of course).

All of this begs the obvious question of just how good Kim can be: What is Tom Kim’s ceiling?

Some incredible comps from Data Golf gets things started: Adam Scott in 2001, Jon Rahm in 2015, Joaquin Niemann in 2019, Sungjae Im in 2018, Jason Day in 2008, and Rickie Fowler in 2009. It also throws in Kevin Na in 2004 and Ryo Ishikawa in 2012.

Though I’m enamored with Kim’s presence and his sense of the moment, I tend to believe he’s a bit overvalued right now. He exceeded his expected win total during the 2021-22 season (two worldwide wins, 0.79 expected wins), and he is doing so again in the 2022-23 season (one win, 0.55 expected wins). This is not everything, but if you dig a little deeper into his profile, it tells a story.

Kim’s problem is going to be ball-striking. He’s an elite iron player — like, really great — but he’s so short off the tee that it’s likely going to prohibit him from truly contending at the biggest events. While Kim is incredibly consistent off the tee — his driving accuracy would have ranked fourth last season if he’d qualified — he has trouble gaining strokes on the field because of his length.

This could change. We saw Matt Fitzpatrick transform his distance through speed training and win a U.S. Open because of it. As Kim is currently constituted, though, he is going to have to have extraordinary putting weeks to win golf tournaments. (He did, for the record, at both the Wyndham Championship and the Shriners in his two victories.) Of the top 150 players in the world who have won at least twice in 2022, Kim is by far the shortest player of that group, according to Data Golf.

Is that sustainable? It might be. A good present-day comp for Kim might be Cam Smith, who is extremely average off the tee and actually gained fewer strokes with his driver than Kim did over the last 12 months (mostly because he’s not as accurate).

If you pull the numbers back to the top 150 players ever over the last 10 years, we get an even better picture. Here are the names that look like Kim: Jim Furyk, Luke Donald, Zach Johnson, Graeme McDowell and Brandt Snedeker with maybe a bit of Jordan Spieth.

This group (outside of Spieth) is a great aim for somebody like Kim. I don’t know if he’s going to have the careers that any of them have had, but he certainly could absolutely have Matt Kuchar’s career. He could have Zach Johnson’s career. Can he go beyond that? Unless things change dramatically — and they might given that he’s 20! — that seems unlikely.  

On paper, he may look like Justin Thomas or Rory McIlroy — generational players. But, and not to bum you out because I actually love him, Tom Kim is likely not a generational player.

This has multiple implications for 2023. As the No. 15 player in the world, Kim is probably a bit overvalued. The second, which is related to the first, is that we should consider our expectations of him. Because he won when he did, and because he crushed at the Presidents Cup, some folks are going into this season believing that Kim can (or even will) win three times. However, with the elevated events schedule he’s almost certainly going to play, that’s unlikely.

Kim’s story should be (and is) celebrated. However, will have a much better picture after this season full of expectations and only the big-boy events of just what Tom Kim can be on the PGA Tour.

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The best player of one generation had to bow out of the Hero World Challenge earlier this week, but the best player of another one, perhaps, leads the golf tournament after Round 1. Tiger Woods looked on from the television booth Thursday as Tom Kim shot a 3-under 69 to co-lead with Sepp Straka, Collin Morikawa and Viktor Hovland after the first day of this stacked tournament in the Bahamas.

Let’s take a look at Kim’s round and who will be chasing him over the next three days at Albany Golf Club.

The leaders

T1. Tom Kim, Viktor Hovland, Collin Morikawa, Sepp Straka (-3): On a windswept day off the Pacific Ocean, ball-strikers shined. And while I’m exaggerating about Kim being the best player of his generation, I might also not be exaggerating. He had the cleanest card of the day with 15 pars and three birdies as he looks for what would be his third win since August.

It’s fair to say that nobody even knew who Tom Kim was eight months (maybe even five months ago), and now he’s on the precipice of having three OWGR wins in the last five months of the year, including an event hosted by Tiger Woods.

“I’m very grateful for it,” he said. “I definitely don’t take it for granted and I’m extremely grateful to be 20 years old and to play on the PGA Tour. “But I’ve worked really hard for it and I’m enjoying every moment out there, so it’s really fun.”

Other contenders

5. Sam Burns (-2)

T6. Tommy Fleetwood, Max Homa (-1)

T9. Tony Finau, Justin Thomas, Xander Schauffele, Scottie Scheffler (E)

As is evident from the scoring on Thursday — which was about as tough as this golf course gets), this board is bunched and there should be a ton of movement on Friday and Saturday going into Sunday. Fleetwood interests me here and not just because he was one of my picks coming into the week. He’s been as hot as anyone in the world over the last few months (three top fives in his last three starts), and he could take some year-end momentum into what I believe could be a monstrous 2023.

J.T.’s card, it should be mentioned, was a beautiful disaster. Six birdies were offset by two bogeys and two doubles. Add it all up, and you get an even-par 72. He’s very much still in the mix.

Morikawa’s redemption

This time last year, Collin Morikawa — who got married recently — took a six-stroke lead into the final round of this event. With a win, he would have become the No. 1 player in the world. He lost, Hovland won and Morikawa has yet to reach that top spot. He can’t do so this week, but after a year in which he felt like he was answering a ton of questions about what’s wrong with his game (answer: nothing), it would be sweet for him to seal the deal on his first win of the year.

“Getting engaged last year, coming back as a married man, it really [is a special place to me],” Morikawa said. “It’s obviously a beautiful location to be in the Bahamas beginning of December and obviously to end this season hopefully on a good note, it’s just kind of give it all you’ve got. 2022’s been a weird year for me, golf-wise it’s been a weird year, but hopefully we can kind of turn that around and slowly start to see some things towards the end of the year.”

2022 Hero World Challenge odds, picks

• Viktor Hovland: 13/2
• Collin Morikawa: 7-1
• Tom Kim: 7-1
• Jon Rahm: 10-1
• Tony Finau: 11-1
• Sam Burns: 11-1
• Scottie Scheffler: 11-1

Rahm is getting a ton of respect after shooting a 1-over 73 and deservedly so. You could make the case that he’s been the best player in the world for the last four months. I prefer somebody a bit down the board, though. Fleetwood is still 18-1 despite a nice start, and there’s more value in playing him than in Morikawa, Hovland or Rahm. Finau at 11-1 is also sneaky nice after the year (and fall) he’s had.

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Just about everything one would want from a big-time golf tournament was in play Thursday during Round 1 of the 2022 CJ Cup. Some stars played well, while others missed 2-foot putts. One player hit his irons better than nearly anyone in the last two decades. Two early-week media room darlings shot a combined double digits under par.

And of course, Congaree Golf Clubs showed out in its first PGA Tour appearance since summer 2021.

Trey Mullinax and Gary Woodland share the lead at 6 under a quarter of the way through the tournament, but they’re going to have some problems in the form of top 25 players in the world coming around the turn as the week wears on. Regardless, they’re the two we’ll focus on as we take a look at what happened on Thursday at the biggest PGA Tour event of the fall in the CJ Cup.

The leader

1. Trey Mullinax, Gary Woodland (-6): These two had eerily similar rounds. Both did their damage with their iron play and putting, and together they combined to make 15 birdies on the day. Woodland summed it up well (and succinctly): “I had all three aspect of driving, ball-striking, putting going on, and it was a good day,” he said.

Whether either can keep it rolling all four rounds is another question. Mullinax ended last season playing some of his best golf. He won the Barbasol Championship and finished in the top 15 in two FedEx Cup Playoff events. However, he missed the cut at each of the first two events this season, and I rarely trust a hot putter. Woodland seemingly has more staying power, but he also doesn’t have a top 10 since the U.S. Open in June. With the caliber of horses just outside of the top spot, I’m also dubious about his chances to pull off what would be his first victory since the 2019 U.S. Open.

Other contenders

T3. Aaron Wise, Wyndham Clark, Tom Kim, Rory McIlroy, Cam Davis, Kurt Kitayama (-5)

T9. Viktor Hovland, Si Woo Kim, Taylor Moore, Tyrrell Hatton, Seamus Power, Sungjae Im (-4)

Wise is going to be interesting this year. He’s not as far away from playing his way onto the U.S. Ryder Cup team as some folks might think, and he had an all-time day on Thursday with his iron play. His 5.99 strokes gained on approach shots was so overwhelming that he was worse than field average in every other category and still shot 5 under, good for a top-five position after 18 holes.

According to Data Golf, Wise’s round was the 31st-best over the last 18 years. Some of the looks he got were flat-our preposterous, and I’m excited to see how he backs it up over the final three days.

Tom and Rory

After Rory McIlroy’s answer to Tom Kim’s question in the press center on Wednesday got so much run, this week has officially turned into The Tom and Rory Show at Congaree. They constituted one of the better groups on Thursday, shooting a combined 10 under to get into the top five on the leaderboard. Kim raved about McIlroy’s length, and McIlroy said Kim flushed everything he looked at. A duel between those two on Sunday would be all kinds of fun.

“He didn’t really miss a shot out there,” said McIlroy of Kim, who made the only bogey either of them made with a five at the 18th hole. “He’s a very, very solid player, plays to his strengths. Makes the same swing at it pretty much every time, like it’s very, very consistent, very steady. He was sort of picking my brain a little bit out there about like speed training, and I’m like, ‘No, no, no, no.’ I think as he gets a little older and maybe a touch stronger, he’ll get that naturally, but I was like, ‘Do not go down that path, you’re good the way you are.'”

They were both pretty awesome on Thursday.

Spieth?

Jordan Spieth shot a 4-over 75 on Thursday and duffed an incredibly short putt in the process. One round does not a tournament make, but the putter was a problem last year, and this golf course should suit him pretty well. It’s not a situation that needs to be monitored, but you would like to see Spieth get off to a better start to his 2022-23 season than T73 in a 78-player field.

2022 CJ Cup odds, picks

• Rory McIlroy: 9/2
• Tom Kim: 9-1
• Trey Mullinax: 9-1
• Gary Woodland: 9-1
• Aaron Wise: 11-1
• Cam Davis: 12-1
• Kurt Kitayama: 16-1
• Viktor Hovland: 18-1
• Sungjae Im: 18-1

I wouldn’t touch either Mullinax or Woodland, and as silly as it seems to back McIlroy at +450, it’s not that dissimilar to his pre-tournament odds (+650). I’m looking a bit further down the board at both Holand and Im, though. Both put together scores mostly with the putter on Thursday, but both have top 10s in one of their last two starts. If either starts flagging irons, the hunt for a trophy will be on as they sit comfortably at 18-1.

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Rory McIroy shows no signs of slowing down as he heads to Congaree Golf Club as the defending champion for this week’s 2022 CJ Cup in South Carolina. The nomadic PGA Tour event, initially intended to be a South Korean staple, was contested at the Summit Club in Las Vegas last year. McIlroy went 25 under to edge a surging Collin Morikawa by one stroke. He went on to win the Tour Championship to close last season, and while this is his first PGA Tour appearance of this campaign, he remains in top form. The Northern Irishman has finished in the top five in all three of his events on the DP World Tour this fall, and he is part of a loaded field teeing off Thursday at Congaree. Six of the world’s top 10 players are scheduled to compete this week. No. 2 McIlroy is joined in that group by top-ranked Scottie Scheffler, two-time CJ Cup winner Justin Thomas, former No. 1 Jon Rahm, two-time major champ Morikawa and U.S. Open champion Matt Fitzpatrick.      

McIlroy is listed as the 13-2 favorite in the latest 2022 CJ Cup odds, with Rahm (9-1) and Scheffler (11-1) not far behind. Thomas (16-1), Max Homa (16-1) and Fitzpatrick (18-1) also are among other top contenders in the CJ Cup 2022 field. Before you lock in any 2022 CJ Cup picks or bets, be sure you check out the PGA Tour predictions, best bets and sleepers from golf insider Patrick McDonald.

After spending time at FanSided and NBC Sports EDGE, McDonald joined CBS Sports as a golf writer in the spring of 2022. Now covering the sport from a broader perspective, McDonald still likes to dip his toes into the betting pools on a weekly basis on the PGA Tour. 

He takes a measured approach to his outright selections and finished the 2021-22 season up 42 units on those plays, having hit Cameron Smith (22-1) at the Tournament of Champions, Hudson Swafford (250-1) at The American Express, Joaquin Niemann (70-1) at the Genesis Invitational and Justin Thomas (66-1) live at the PGA Championship.

At the Zozo Championship, McDonald nailed a first-round leader, backing 80-1 Brendan Steele before he closed with four consecutive birdies to lead by one stroke after Thursday’s round. The expert also hit two of his three matchup plays, including tournament winner Keegan Bradley over Corey Conners, one of the pre-tournament favorites. Anyone who followed McDonald’s advice cashed in huge.

Now, McDonald has studied the 2022 CJ Cup field and is locking in his best bets, top sleepers and favorites to avoid. You can head to SportsLine now to see all his PGA picks and predictions. 

Top 2022 CJ Cup expert picks

Shockingly, McDonald is fading Tom Kim (28-1) despite the rising young star’s recent success. The South Korean won the Shriners in Las Vegas two weeks ago and tied for 25th on Sunday in Japan, but his travel schedule could catch up with him. His game also is less than ideal for Congaree, as he hits it straight and makes his putts but doesn’t have a ton of power. He ranks 192nd in driving distance so far, at less than 287 yards. The 20-year-old will have trouble keeping up with the big hitters in this field, and his accuracy is unlikely to make up for that.      

On the other hand, the expert knows McIlroy is one of several players in this field who play well on Tom Fazio designs. In addition to his victory on the architect’s Summit Club track last year, he went 22 under to finish fourth in the BMW Championship at Caves Valley in 2021 and has two victories and a runner-up at Quail Hollow. McIlroy has been on a tear, finishing in the top 20 in all but one event since his runner-up finish at the Masters last April, a span that includes three victories. He also has his eye on the No. 1 ranking, with a chance he could take it this week. See who else to pick here.     

How to make 2022 CJ Cup golf picks

Before this week’s PGA Tour event near Hilton Head, McDonald has locked in his best bets for the 2022 CJ Cup. He has several outright plays, including a monster longshot that would bring a massive payout of 150-1. You can find out who it is, and see all of the expert’s PGA picks, at SportsLine.

So which 2022 CJ Cup picks should you target? Which golfer priced at 150-1 could pull off a stunning victory this week at CJ Cup 2022? Check out the odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Patrick McDonald’s top prop picks for CJ Cup 2022, all from the expert who ended last season up 42 units on outright plays, and find out.

2022 CJ Cup odds, field, top contenders

See full CJ Cup 2022 picks, best bets, and predictions here. 

Rory McIlroy +650
Jon Rahm +900
Scottie Scheffler +1100
Max Homa +1600
Justin Thomas +1600
Sungjae Im +1800
Matt Fitzpatrick +1800
Shane Lowry +2200
Jordan Spieth +2200
Viktor Hovland +2800
Tom Kim +2800
Sam Burns +2800
Collin Morikawa +2800
Tyrrell Hatton +3500
Cameron Young +3500
Hideki Matsuyama +4000
Taylor Montgomery +4500
Keegan Bradley +4500
Billy Horschel +4500
Aaron Wise +4500
Maverick McNealy +6500
Corey Conners +6500
Brian Harman +6500
Andrew Putnam +6500
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6500
Tom Hoge +7000
Russell Henley +7000
Mito Pereira +7000
Keith Mitchell +7000
Emiliano Grillo +7000
Cam Davis +7000
Tommy Fleetwood +8000
Si Woo Kim +8000
Scott Stallings +8000
Sahith Theegala +8000
Rickie Fowler +8000
Jason Day +8000
J.T. Poston +8000
Alex Noren +8000
Adam Hadwin +8000
Taylor Moore +10000
Sebastian Munoz +10000
Seamus Power +10000
Matt Kuchar +10000
Harris English +10000
Denny McCarthy +10000
Davis Riley +10000
Kurt Kitayama +13000
K.H. Lee +13000
J.J. Spaun +13000
Webb Simpson +15000
Wyndham Clark +15000
Sepp Straka +15000
S.H. Kim +15000
Ryan Palmer +15000
Luke List +15000
Kevin Kisner +15000
Chris Kirk +15000
Alex Smalley +15000
Trey Mullinax +18000
Gary Woodland +18000
Brendon Todd +18000
Lee Hodges +20000
Byeong Hun An +20000
Brendan Steele +20000
Troy Merritt +25000
Justin Suh +25000
Danny Willett +30000
Chez Reavie +30000
Lucas Glover +40000
John Huh +40000
Yoseop Seo +50000
Yongjun Bae +100000
Sanghyun Park +100000
Sanghun Shin +100000
Chanmin Jung  +100000
Yeongsu Kim +100000

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Tom Kim may officially be him after outdueling Patrick Cantlay in the final round Sunday of the 2022 Shriners Children’s Open for his second victory on the PGA Tour. Triumphant for the second time in two months, the 20-year-old superstar who burst onto the scene at the 2022 Presidents Cup may only be getting started.

Beginning the day at 19 under and in a share of the lead, Kim quickly fell behind when Cantlay opened with a birdie of his own. In lockstep with veteran caddie Joe Skovron, Kim was unphased. The South Korean connected on his first birdie of the day on the par-4 fourth and added two more on Nos. 8-9 to turn in 3-under 32 and in possession of a two-stroke lead.

This comfortable margin would be short-lived as Cantlay found his stroke early on the inward nine. With consecutive birdies on 11 and 12, the pair went into the final third of TPC Summerlin all squared. 

Back-and-forth Kim and Cantlay continued to go before arriving at the 17th tied at 24 under. Trading pars on the difficult par 3, Cantlay’s tee shot on the 72nd hole ultimately sealed his fate. Finding the native area, the world No. 4 attempted to play from the brush and left his golf ball at his feet before taking an unplayable and hitting his fourth shot into the water. Leading to a triple bogey, all Kim needed was a routine par for his second win in his last four starts.

Known to be automatic in clutch situations, it was not Cantlay, but rather Kim who held the steady hand. Getting around TPC Summerlin in a bogey-free fashion on the week, he became the first player on the PGA Tour to do so since Joaquin Niemann at the 2021 Rocket Mortgage Classic and the first to do so in victory since J.T. Poston at the 2019 Wyndham Championship.

Consistently applying pressure on his playing competitor, this victory showcases the ways in which Kim may win in the future. Lapping the field on Sunday at the Wyndham Championship for his first win on the PGA Tour, this trip to the winner’s circle was considerably different given not only the competition, but the manner in which it was achieved.

Kim never flustered when Cantlay struck back and if he was, his poker face was strong enough to warrant a seat at a big-money table on the strip. Leaning on his short-game at opportune times, the combination of steadiness, touch and a dash of fieriness makes the 20-year-old not only fun to watch, but fun to root for.

With the victory Kim became the first player since Tiger Woods in 1996 to win twice on the PGA TOUR before turning 21.

While comparisons to Tiger Woods are far-fetched, it did almost feel Tiger-esque. Slowly draining the life out of the rest of the field, Kim never blinked in the face of adversity. When punched, he punched back. When faced with sticky situations, he played conservatively aggressive. And when given a chance to step on the neck, he took one giant step in more ways than one. Grade: A+

Here are the rest of our grades for the 2022 Shriners Children’s Open.

T2. Patrick Cantlay (-21): We may never see a 72nd hole from Cantlay like that ever again as the 2017 Shriners Children’s Open winner carded a triple bogey on the final hole to hand Kim the trophy. While some will suggest it was another quality outing for Cantlay — his third runner-up at TPC Summerlin in addition to his win — he needs to start putting these tournaments away. On the heels of a season where he lost in two playoffs and was a runner-up once more, the Californian has admitted to being tired of falling short. Yes, he has eight wins in his PGA Tour career, but given his talent, consistency and mental fortitude, it sure does feel light. Grade: A

7. Sungjae Im (-19): It was a nice defense for Im, who was nearly perfect except for a 70 in Round 2 that mostly took him out of the tournament. Across the last two Shriners Children’s Opens, Im has lost to just six total golfers. The question now is how close to No. 1 he can get. In the last five years, Im’s Data Golf ranking has looked like this: 230-80-30-25-15. Right now he’s No. 11. Can he get all the way into the top five or, gulp, even close to No. 1 over the next few years? Grade: A-

T8. Jason Day (-18): The former major winner closed with 63 to jump into the top 10, and it made me wonder what in the world Day has been up to over the last few years. So I dove into his statistics and his finishes. Day hasn’t won since the 2018 Wells Fargo Championship, but he has finished in the top 20 in over 20% of his events in each of the last four year. The biggest problems for Day have been with his iron play, where he went to a top 25 type player to barely tour average. He’s also gone from being the best putter in the world to being just a solid player. Hopefully the Shriners, which is his only individual top 10 since January, will be a nice kick start to him for 2023. Grade: A

T12. Davis Thompson (-16): Remember the name. Or should I say, remember the name? Thompson led after the first round of the 2020 U.S. Open at Winged Foot when he was still an amateur at Georgia. After a nice year in 2022 on the Korn Ferry Tour—Thompson had four top 10s, including a win—he’s off to a good PGA Tour start this fall with three made cuts, including a T9 at the Fortinet Championship and this week’s T12. The even better news? He flushed it all week and was the worst putter of anybody inside the top 19 on this leaderboard. He’s somebody to keep an eye on over the next month. Grade: A-

T28. Patrick Welch (-13): You might be asking, “Wait, who in the world is Patrick Welch?” which is a totally reasonable question. The answer: He’s an amateur who plays collegiately for Oklahoma, is ranked No. 44 in the world, plays cross-handed and beat over 100 pros this week doing so. Here’s a look at his wild swing, which must be working considering he finished top 25 in the field in both strokes gained on approach and from tee to green. Grade: A+

The First Cut podcast crew is back to bring you their recap for the Shriners Children’s Open and the LIV Bangkok event. Follow & listen to The First Cut on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.  

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The floodgates were always going to open for Patrick Cantlay ,and on Saturday they did just that. The 2017 Shriners Children’s Open champion catapulted his name to the top of the leaderboard with an exquisite third round of 11-under 60, leapfrogging his counterparts in the process. Good for a share of the course record and a share of the 54-hole lead, the Californian is now in prime position to notch his ninth career victory on the PGA Tour five years after capturing his first on these very grounds.

While unable to make birdie on his final hole to become the 13th member of the illustrious sub-60 club on the PGA Tour, Cantlay’s day was still indelible. The 30-year-old was as solid as can be, not once finding the rough and averaging a proximity of 21 feet with his approach shots. 

His lone missed green in regulation came when his ball settled on the fringe of the par-3 8th, and if not for a so-so day with the putter, Cantlay’s 60 could have easily surpassed Jim Furyk’s 58. Connecting on only a single effort from outside 10 feet, the one putt Cantlay may want to have back is his 17-foot eagle chance on the par-5 16th that came a couple revolutions short of dropping.

Despite the spotlight rightfully settling on Cantlay, one cannot lose sight of the Energizer Bunny that is Tom Kim. Without a birdie on his back nine on Friday, the 20-year-old more than made amends on Saturday with six on his inward half. Making four straight birdies from Nos. 13-16, the South Korean was able to keep pace with the very American he disarmed on Day 3 of the 2022 Presidents Cup at Quail Hollow Club.

Alongside Cantlay, the pair possess a three-stroke margin over their nearest pursuers, setting up for a potential duel between the unlikely foes. Opposite in demeanor and opposite in skillset, the primary focus of the two will be the same in the final round in Las Vegas: Win.

The leaders

1. Patrick Cantlay, Tom Kim (-19)

The betting favorite coming into the week, Cantlay has played the part through 54 holes at TPC Summerlin. Capturing his first victory here in 2017, he has since added finishes of 2nd-2nd-T8 to his Shriners Children’s Open résumé and looks well on his way to adding to his stellar history. 

With a near flawless track record on these grounds, it was surprising to hear Cantlay critical of the conditions after his second round on Friday. Emphasizing the need to hit his approach shots closers as the new greens settle, Cantlay did just that on Saturday and led the field in strokes gained tee-to-green. 

“[Sunday will be the] Same game plan as the first three days, and it’s going to take a low one again tomorrow,” said Cantlay. “This golf course yields low scores, and I expect the same tomorrow. Everyone will be gunning for me, and I’ve got to shoot a low one.”

Other contenders

T3. Matthew NeSmith, Mito Pereira (-16)

T5. Sungjae Im, S.H. Kim (-15)

T7. Aaron Rai, J.T. Poston, Adam Hadwin, Si Woo Kim, Robby Shelton (-14)

Im, the defending champion of this event, put together a middling first couple rounds, but much like Cantlay, exploded on Saturday. Signing for an 8-under 63, the two-time winner on the PGA Tour will look to add a third trophy to his mantle tomorrow. Im memorably carded a 9-under 62 to win by four strokes a season ago at TPC Summerlin, and given the play of Cantlay and Co., something similar may be needed again.

“It would be great meaning to me, back-to-back winning,” Im said. “I know it’s really difficult to win back to back, but I’ve got one more day. Today I didn’t think about any winning for tomorrow, I just clean and play without thinking about winning.”

Adam Hadwin making a habit of fronting the tab

Hopefully the boys will not be making their way down to the strip, because if so, Adam Hadwin’s tab could run wild. The Canadian connected for a hole-in-one late in his third round on the par-3 14th. Hadwin is no stranger to making aces on the PGA Tour as he made one four months ago at the Memorial and celebrated in memorable fashion. This shot was just as impressive despite the celebration being a bit more tame.

“It’s a good pin on the back right. I had to take some off a pitching wedge, and just kind of held it up there nicely,” said Hadwin. “It took off on a perfect line. Obviously when it lands, you never quite know, but it was on a perfect line, and I think it was going to be close regardless. So it’s a bonus to drop in.”

2022 Shriners Children’s Open updated odds and picks

• Patrick Cantlay: 11/10
• Tom Kim: 7/5
• Sungjae Im: 20-1
• Mito Pereira: 20-1
• Matthew NeSmith: 20-1
• S.H. Kim: 55-1
• Si Woo Kim: 80-1
• Adam Hadwin: 90-1

Earlier in the week, Cantlay was pegged as a player to win five times in the 2022-23 season, and his play through 54 holes doesn’t suggest otherwise. He has been exquisite off the tee, and his iron play followed suit in his memorable round on Saturday. With his ball-striking in sync, Cantlay has not needed to lean on his biggest weapon (the putter), which makes him all the more dangerous to raise the trophy on Sunday.

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