The first-round leader in a golf tournament has a tendency to fade every now and again, but not often do they miss out on the weekend entirely. That’s exactly what happened to Jordan Spieth at the 2023 Sony Open. After sharing the lead with Chris Kirk and Taylor Montgomery in Round 1 with a 6-under 64, Spieith signed for a 5-over 75 in his second round. Missing the cut by a single stroke, Spieth essentially predicted his own demise following the first round.

“I believe I can shoot 5 or 6 under each day out here,” Spieth said on Thursday. “Not to say that that means it’ll happen, but there are other times I would be sitting there going, ‘How do I hold this sh-t together,’ to be honest. Seriously.”

He couldn’t keep it together enough on Friday, and in the process joined a short list of players to plummet from the top of the leaderboard over the course of one round. Spieth became the 10th man since 2010 (and second in the last four years) to miss the cut after holding the first-round lead. As a result, he will take his RV back to the mainland United States where he will tee it up next.

In his place, Chris Kirk has emerged as the solo leader at the 36-hole mark. Standing at 11 under, the former Georgia Bulldog holds a narrow lead over J.J. Spaun and Taylor Montgomery at 10 under. With a number of unproven players in the chasing pack, a life-changing opportunity to enter the winner’s circle has emerged at Waialae Country Club.

The leader

1. Chris Kirk (-11)

Three years ago, Kirk was fighting for his job at the Sony Open. In need of a T3 finish or better, Kirk delivered in the clutch by making birdie on the 72nd hole to secure a T2 result and retaining his PGA Tour card. With a brand new perspective on life, Kirk is now in position to snag his first Tour title in 2,791 days.

“I don’t know if it helps or not, but it definitely helps when I get done playing,” said Kirk on finding peace in his game. “I am able to not judge myself for who I am as a professional golfer. I am able to have my life as a person and my life as professional golfer are two completely independent things. 

“I am able to wake up every day and know that I am doing the right things, that I’m working hard, that I love my family and I am doing the best for them and that all that really matters,” he continued. “Whether you shoot 65 or 75 — you know the 65’s are a lot more fun, I’m not going to lie — but it just puts everything into the right perspective.”

Other contenders

T2. Taylor Montgomery, J.J. Spaun (-10)

T4. Hayden Buckley, David Lipsky (-9)

T6. Ben Taylor, Austion Eckroat, S.H. Kim (-8)

T9. Denny McCarthy, Stephan Jaegar, J.T. Poston, Brendon Todd, Ben Griffin, Maverick McNealy (-7)

Through the first 10 events of the 2022-23 PGA Tour season, there has only been one first-time winner: Adam Svensson at the RSM Classic. With titans like Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy and Tom Kim all winning thus far, the lack of big names this weekend will present a golden chance for a budding star to change the trajectory of his career.

There are 10 winless competitors currently inside the top 15, all of whom will take their crack at raising their first trophy. Winning on the PGA Tour is not easy, and Rookie of the Year front runner Taylor Montgomery put into context just how good these guys truly are in a funny, self-depreciating way after his second round.

“I would say yesterday’s round [was more enjoyable] just because, I mean, I felt like I hit my irons really good,” said Montgomery. “Then I looked at the strokes gained approach and I was like dead even. I’m like, how good are these damn guys with their irons? Like I don’t know. Just an area that I really want to improve … like I think I was 80th and I felt like I hit my irons awesome.”

South Korean stars sent packing early

While Spieth’s demise was more public and a bit of a rollercoaster to say the least, he was not the only favorite to fall short of expectations. The two men who occupied the top two spots on the odds board to begin the week will not be around for the weekend, either. Young superstars Tom Kim and Sungjae Im were unable to get the ball rolling at Waialae CC and ultimately missed the cut in their second starts of the new year.

For Kim, this is his first missed cut since the PGA Championship last May and his first missed cut as a full-time member of the PGA Tour. As for Im, this represents only his fourth missed cut in the last 25 worldwide starts. Both players will look to bounce back quickly at next week’s The American Express in Palm Springs.

2023 Sony Open updated odds and picks

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook

• Taylor Montgomery: 4-1
• Chris Kirk: 9/2
• J.J. Spaun: 11/2
• Hayden Buckley: 12-1
• David Lipsky: 16-1
• J.T. Poston: 18-1
• Maverick McNealy: 22-1
• Denny McCarthy: 30-1
• S.H. Kim: 35-1
• Brendon Todd: 35-1
• Ben Taylor: 35-1
• Stephan Jaegar: 35-1

There is certainly some unknown with the names listed above. Only Kirk, Spaun, Poston and Todd have won on the PGA Tour before, two of those names pique my interest. I have been keen on Spaun from the start of the week, and if not for an errant tee shot on the par-5 9th, he would be leading this golf tournament. He remains a fair price — as does Poston, who looks to be in form to make a weekend run from four strokes back.

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In what could have been a letdown week for the PGA Tour, a superstar emerged on the first day of the Sony Open and shares the lead going into Friday’s second round.

Jordan Spieth shot a 64 at Honolulu’s Waialae Country Club on Thursday and is locked up with Chris Kirk and Taylor Montgomery atop the leaderboard, one ahead of a group of six other golfers after play was suspended due to darkness. Though Spieth has won in Hawaii before at the Tournament of Champions, he has never won this particular event. A win here, however, could portend a monstrous 2023 for the three-time major winner.

Let’s take a look at his round along with what to expect the rest of the week.

The leaders

T1. Jordan Spieth, Chris Kirk, Taylor Montgomery (-6): Warning: This is going to be a very Spieth-heavy article (for obvious reasons). The good news for the Golden Child is that he’s leading a golf tournament. The bad news is that he nearly needed to lead the field in putting to do so. Spieth nearly had a perfectly clean card Thursday only sullying it with a bogey on the par-4 13th hole. He said after his round that the putter is starting to feel good again.

“Half my putts today were like, ‘Wow, I knew exactly where that was going.’ Some of them went in and some of them didn’t, and the others I didn’t and I made some of them,” Spieth said. “It’s just — but I know once I get to a certain feel through the ball that I can beat the field. I can be No. 1 in strokes gained for the week because I know what that feels like.

“So I’m just trying to get that way. It’s getting there, and that’s exciting.”

The numbers agree. Spieth’s 50-round rolling average in strokes gained putting is above PGA Tour average (0.0 SG) for the first time since the Texas Open last year. 

I’m not sure Spieth has anything to prove to anyone given that he’s already won three majors and 13 times before turning 30. But a win here and a little momentum rolling into a big time stretch of golf leading into the Masters would certainly elevate him in my mind back to somebody who could feasibly be the No. 1 player in the world by the end of the year. A long way to go, and he needs to hit it a bit better than he did today, but something is certainly brewing.

Other contenders

T4. Harris English, Denny McCarthy, Brendon Todd, David Lipsky, Rory Sabbatini (-5)

T11. Stewart Cink, K.J. Choi, Cam Davis (-4)

We could talk about English (which we do below), but how about Cink and Choi (combined age 101) in the mix at this event! Both shot 66s and both did it by gaining strokes in every statistical category, which is remarkable.

Also, Sabbatini’s scripting on Thursday was all-time.

Quote(s) of the day

Spieth had some gems after his 64. The first was about where his game is at compared to where it has been in recent years.

“I believe I can shoot 5 or 6 under each day out here,” Spieth said. “Not to say that that means it’ll happen, but there are other times I would be sitting there going, ‘How do I hold this shit together,’ to be honest. Seriously.”

I can’t think of a better way to sum up his entire career.

The second was a big-time flex following that quote about his game and the revelation that he and his family recently purchased an RV to travel around to PGA Tour events.

Q: When was the last time you flew coach?

Spieth: “The 27th — oh, coach, sorry, no. … I thought you said commercial.”

Sure, sure, sure.

Harris English resurfaces

Harris English was out for much of 2022 with an injury, and it’s clear that he’s had a difficult time bouncing back. In 15 starts since returning last June, English has just one top 10 finish (the Fortinet Championship in September). His 65 in Round 1 marked just the third time he’d gained at least 4.4 strokes on the field in a single round since the summer of 2021. English said after his round that this is as close to 100% as he’s felt in a long time so hopefully this is the start of a nice run for him in 2023.

2023 Sony Open updated odds and picks

• Jordan Spieth: 4-1
• Taylor Montgomery: 8-1
• Harris English: 14-1
• Chris Kirk: 18-1
• Denny McCarthy: 20-1
• Cam Davis: 20-1

This is a tough board. I don’t particularly love anybody on it, but if you made me choose, I think Davis at 20-1 is really interesting. He’s just two back and led the field from tee to green on Thursday. A big time year from him wouldn’t be a surprise at all, and it’s very easy to envision — even if his game doesn’t seemingly fit Waialae perfectly — to envision him starting to roll this weekend.

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Hideki Matsuyama will try to defend his crown this week when the 2023 Sony Open tees off Thursday at Waialae Country Club in Honolulu. Matsuyama aims to become the first golfer to go back-to-back at Waialae since Jimmy Walker (2014-15). Matsuyama stormed back from five strokes down with nine holes to play last year and beat Russell Henley with an eagle on the first playoff hole. Henley and Walker also are in a 144-player Sony Open 2023 field that is headlined by Matsuyama, Jordan Spieth and Tom Kim. The Sony Open has been played at the Honolulu course since 1965 and has followed the Sentry Tournament of Champions on Kapalua since 1999. Nineteen of the 39 golfers are making their way over from Maui. 

Caesars Sportsbook lists Sungjae Im as the 10-1 favorite in its latest 2023 Sony Open odds, followed closely by Kim at 11-1. Half a dozen other golfers are shorter than 25-1, with Matsuyama (15-1) and Spieth (16-1) among them. Brian Harman (16-1), Tom Hoge (20-1), Corey Conners (20-1) and Henley (22-1) are the others, and Walker is priced at a whopping 500-1 in the Sony Open 2023 field. Before you lock in any 2023 Sony Open picks, be sure you check out the PGA Tour predictions and best bets from SportsLine golf insider Patrick McDonald.

After spending time at FanSided and NBC Sports EDGE, McDonald joined CBS Sports as a golf writer in the spring of 2022. Now covering the sport from a broader perspective, McDonald still likes to dip his toes into the betting pools on a weekly basis on the PGA Tour. 

McDonald takes a measured approach to his outright selections and is having a profitable 2022-23 season in every category. He nailed the Houston Open, backing Tony Finau to win at 25-1, and is up almost 10 units on his plays overall. That’s a profit of almost $1,000 for $100 bettors. The expert also has been on the money on his matchup plays and cashed in huge on Brendan Steele (80-1) as the first-round leader at the Zozo Championship.

The expert finished the 2021-22 season up 42 units on his outright plays, having hit Cameron Smith (22-1) at the Tournament of Champions, Hudson Swafford (250-1) at The American Express, Joaquin Niemann (70-1) at the Genesis Invitational and Justin Thomas (66-1) live at the PGA Championship. Last week he listed Jon Rahm among his top picks, and the 28-year-old shot 10 under on Sunday to capture the win. Anyone who follows McDonald’s advice has been cashing in.

Now, McDonald has studied the 2023 Sony Open field and is locking in his best bets, top sleepers and favorites to avoid. You can head to SportsLine now to see all his PGA picks and predictions.  

Top 2023 Sony Open expert picks

McDonald knows Spieth is one of the top names in this field and among the favorites, but the expert is fading the three-time major champion. The former world No. 1 has 13 tour victories, one in each of the past two years, but hasn’t played Waialae since 2019. He missed the cut that year, shooting 73 in the first round. The course seems to be a bad fit, as he lacks accuracy off the tee. He hit 56% of fairways last season (150th on tour) and was 62nd in greens in regulation and 155th in strokes gained putting. McDonald calls Spieth “an easy pass” for this week.

On the other hand, Kim is the highest-ranked golfer in the field, and McDonald sees why he is among the expected contenders. The 20-year-old’s accuracy is tough to match, and that should be what wins at Waialae. The tight layout demands precision, and Kim is sixth on tour in driving accuracy (72.8%), greens in regulation (76.4%) and scoring average (69.3). He hit 89% of his fairways at the CJ Cup in late October. Kim has two tour victories and three other top-10 finishes in 15 career tour outings, and he has 11 wins worldwide, several in smaller Asian tours. You can see who else to back at Waialae Country Club here.          

How to make 2023 Sony Open picks

Before this week’s PGA Tour event, McDonald has locked in his best bets for the 2023 Sony Open. His outright plays include five major long shots who come in at more than 40-1. One of these players excels on tight courses where accuracy off the tee matters, and if this player can pull off his breakthrough victory he would bring a massive payday of well over 100-1. You can find out who it is, and see the rest of McDonald’s Sony Open picks, predictions, and best bets at SportsLine.

So which 2023 Sony Open picks should you target? Which player has the off-the-tee game to pull off a victory that would pay off at well over 100-1? Check out the odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Patrick McDonald’s top prop picks for Sony Open 2023, all from the expert who is up almost $1,000 on his PGA Tour picks this season, and find out.

2023 Sony Open odds, field, top contenders

See full Sony Open 2023 picks, best bets, and predictions here.

Sungjae Im +1000
Tom Kim +1100
Jordan Spieth +1400
Hideki Matsuyama +1500
Brian Harman +1600
Russell Henley +1800
Tom Hoge +2200
Corey Conners +2200
Adam Scott +3100
Taylor Montgomery +3100
Billy Horschel +3200
Cameron Davis +3300
Kyoung-Hoon Lee +3400
Keegan Bradley +3400
Keith Mitchell +3700
Si Woo Kim +3700
Maverick Mcnealy +3700
J.J. Spaun +4000
Alex Smalley +4500
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +4500
MacKenzie Hughes +5000
Emiliano Grillo +5000
Harris English +5000
J.T. Poston +5000
Denny McCarthy +5000
Matt Kuchar +5000
Webb Simpson +5000
Gary Woodland +5000
Kurt Kitayama +5500
Adam Svensson +5500
Will Gordon +5500
Andrew Putnam +5500
Chris Kirk +6000
Brendan Steele +6500
Hayden Buckley +6500
Brendon Todd +7500
Nick Hardy +8000
Aaron Rai +8500
Davis Thompson +9000
Chun-an Yu +9000
Russell Knox +9500
Greyson Sigg +9500
Patton Kizzire +9500
Ryan Palmer +10000
Robby Shelton +10000
Stephan Jaeger +10000
Justin Suh +11000
Ryan Armour +11000
Troy Merritt +11000
Brandon Wu +11000
Ben Griffin +11000
David Lipsky +12000
Chez Reavie +12000
David Lingmerth +13000
Kevin Streelman +13000
Sam Ryder +13000
Kazuki Higa +14000
Michael Thompson +14000
Lucas Glover +14000
James Hahn +14000
Mark Hubbard +14000
Stewart Cink +14000
Taiga Semikawa +14000
Seonghyeon Kim +14000
Joseph Bramlett +15000
Carl Yuan +15000
Nick Taylor +16000
Brian Stuard +16000
Harry Higgs +16000
Adam Long +16000
Keita Nakajima +16000
Tyson Alexander +16000
MJ Daffue +16000
John Huh +16000
Adam Schenk +17000
Scott Piercy +17000
Cole Hammer +17000
Zac Blair +19000
Ben Taylor +19000
Austin Eckroat +21000
Danny Lee +21000
Peter Malnati +21000
Byeong Hun An +21000
Yuto Katsuragawa +21000

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Almost half the PGA Tour field from last week will make the short hop over to Honolulu for the 2023 Sony Open at Waialae Country Club. Nineteen of the 39 players from the Sentry Tournament of Champions are scheduled to tee off Thursday. The top names are three-time major champion Jordan Spieth, defending Sony Open champion Hideki Matsuyama, and 20-year-old rising star Tom Kim. Matsuyama rallied from five shots down with nine holes to play last year before beating Russell Henley in a playoff. It was the second time in three years the Sony Open went to extra holes. Matsuyama shot back-to-back 63’s to post a winning score of 23 under par, and scores are expected to go low again in 2023. The average winning score the past 10 years is 20 under.     

The latest 2023 Sony Open odds from Caesars Sportsbook list Kim as the 12-1 favorite, with Sungjae Im (14-1) and Spieth (16-1) right behind. Others top contenders in the Sony Open 2023 field are Matsuyama (18-1), Henley (22-1), and Tom Hoge (22-1). Before you lock in any 2023 Sony Open picks, be sure you check out the PGA Tour predictions and best bets from SportsLine golf insider Patrick McDonald.

After spending time at FanSided and NBC Sports EDGE, McDonald joined CBS Sports as a golf writer in the spring of 2022. Now covering the sport from a broader perspective, McDonald still likes to dip his toes into the betting pools on a weekly basis on the PGA Tour. 

McDonald takes a measured approach to his outright selections and is having a profitable 2022-23 season in every category. He nailed the Houston Open, backing Tony Finau to win at 25-1, and is up almost 10 units on his plays overall. That’s a profit of almost $1,000 for $100 bettors. The expert also has been on the money on his matchup plays and cashed in huge on Brendan Steele (80-1) as the first-round leader at the Zozo Championship.

The expert finished the 2021-22 season up 42 units on his outright plays, having hit Cameron Smith (22-1) at the Tournament of Champions, Hudson Swafford (250-1) at The American Express, Joaquin Niemann (70-1) at the Genesis Invitational and Justin Thomas (66-1) live at the PGA Championship. Last week he listed Jon Rahm among his top picks, and the 28-year-old shot 10 under on Sunday to capture the win. Anyone who follows McDonald’s advice has been cashing in.

Now, McDonald has studied the 2023 Sony Open field and is locking in his best bets, top sleepers and favorites to avoid. You can head to SportsLine now to see all his PGA picks and predictions.  

Top 2023 Sony Open expert picks

Shockingly, McDonald is fading Spieth, the biggest name in the field and one of the betting favorites. The 29-year-old won on a similar course at Harbour Town last April, but the expert knows that was an aberration. Spieth is not accurate off the tee – he ranked 150th on tour in hitting 56% of fairways last season – and hasn’t been great on approach or on the greens. He didn’t rank in the top 50 on approach anywhere beyond 100 yards. Spieth has missed the cut twice in four appearances at Waialae, including his last time in 2019, and was in the top 20 in the other two.

The expert also knows Kim is the favorite here for a reason. McDonald says Waialae “should be an ideal statistical fit” for the South Korean, who has two PGA Tour victories. He has 11 worldwide wins since 2018, many in smaller Asian tours, and is the highest-ranked player in this field. He is No. 14, one spot ahead of Spieth, and is one of the most accurate players on tour. Kim ranked sixth last season in both driving accuracy (72.8%) and greens in regulation (76.4%). He also was sixth in scoring average (69.3) and comes in off a tie for fifth last week at Kapalua. You can see who else to back at Waialae Country Club here.          

How to make 2023 Sony Open picks

Before this week’s PGA Tour event, McDonald has locked in his best bets for the 2023 Sony Open. His outright plays include five major long shots who come in at more than 40-1. One of these players excels on tight courses where accuracy off the tee matters, and if this player can pull off his breakthrough victory he would bring a massive payday of well over 100-1. You can find out who it is, and see the rest of McDonald’s Sony Open picks, predictions, and best bets at SportsLine.

So which 2023 Sony Open picks should you target? Which player has the off-the-tee game to pull off a victory that would pay off at well over 100-1? Check out the odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Patrick McDonald’s top prop picks for Sony Open 2023, all from the expert who is up almost $1,000 on his PGA Tour picks this season, and find out.

2023 Sony Open odds, field, top contenders

See full Sony Open 2023 picks, best bets, and predictions here.

Tom Kim +1200
Sungjae Im +1400
Jordan Spieth +1600
Hideki Matsuyama +1800
Russell Henley +1800
Tom Hoge +2200
Corey Conners +2200
Brian Harman +2600
Adam Scott +3100
Taylor Montgomery +3100
Billy Horschel +3200
Cameron Davis +3300
Kyoung-Hoon Lee +3400
Keegan Bradley +3400
Keith Mitchell +3700
Si Woo Kim +3700
Maverick Mcnealy +3700
J.J. Spaun +4000
Alex Smalley +4500
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +4500
MacKenzie Hughes +5000
Emiliano Grillo +5000
Harris English +5000
J.T. Poston +5000
Denny McCarthy +5000
Matt Kuchar +5000
Webb Simpson +5000
Gary Woodland +5000
Kurt Kitayama +5500
Adam Svensson +5500
Will Gordon +5500
Andrew Putnam +5500
Chris Kirk +6000
Brendan Steele +6500
Hayden Buckley +6500
Brendon Todd +7500
Nick Hardy +8000
Aaron Rai +8500
Davis Thompson +9000
Chun-an Yu +9000
Russell Knox +9500
Greyson Sigg +9500
Patton Kizzire +9500
Ryan Palmer +10000
Robby Shelton +10000
Stephan Jaeger +10000
Justin Suh +11000
Ryan Armour +11000
Troy Merritt +11000
Brandon Wu +11000
Ben Griffin +11000
David Lipsky +12000
Chez Reavie +12000
David Lingmerth +13000
Kevin Streelman +13000
Sam Ryder +13000
Kazuki Higa +14000
Michael Thompson +14000
Lucas Glover +14000
James Hahn +14000
Mark Hubbard +14000
Stewart Cink +14000
Taiga Semikawa +14000
Seonghyeon Kim +14000
Joseph Bramlett +15000
Carl Yuan +15000
Nick Taylor +16000
Brian Stuard +16000
Harry Higgs +16000
Adam Long +16000
Keita Nakajima +16000
Tyson Alexander +16000
MJ Daffue +16000
John Huh +16000
Adam Schenk +17000
Scott Piercy +17000
Cole Hammer +17000
Zac Blair +19000
Ben Taylor +19000
Austin Eckroat +21000
Danny Lee +21000
Peter Malnati +21000
Byeong Hun An +21000
Yuto Katsuragawa +21000

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Tom Kim and Jordan Spieth shared a tee time on Thursday at the Plantation Course at Kapalua for the first round of the 2023 Tournament of Champions. Signing for rounds of 8-under 65 and 6-under 67, respectively, the two also shared Christmas dinner the previous week — with Kim also acting as babysitter for Spieth’s 14-month-old son, Sammy. 

“The more time I spent with Jordan [Spieth], we kind of became closer friends. I think we shared a plane back from the Hero back to Dallas, so I took the Jordan air,” said Kim, who was still finding his bearings in the U.S. “He was really nice enough to invite me for Christmas. My family wasn’t home and I was kind of by myself. So I got to spend some time with the Spieths and kind of babysit Sammy, which was really cool. It’s been amazing to kind of build a friendship and it was really cool to play with him today.”

After winning twice in a four-tournament stretch on the PGA Tour and starring for the International Team in the 2022 Presidents Cup, Kim spent his short offseason in South Korea to reconnect with family. Overseas for four weeks, he returned to his new base camp in the Dallas-Fort Worth area.

Kim, who is still only 20 years of age, is the newest addition to the crop of PGA Tour stars who call the Dallas-Fort Worth area home. Joining not only Spieth, but Scottie Scheffler, Will Zalatoris and a number of his fellow South Koreans in the Lone Star State, Kim has surrounded himself with some of the best players in the world both on and off the golf course. 

“Tom, actually during the Christmas break, he joined Jordan and his family for Christmas dinner,” said Smylie Kaufman, NBC’s on-course analyst and Spieth’s good friend. “So, these two have actually formed a relationship over the last couple of months, and they’re having a blast out here today.

“Tom is a noted guy who likes to eat some food,” Kaufman continued. “I was told he went back for, not only thirds, but fourths at Christmas dinner.”

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April will be here before you know it, and coming along for the ride with it will be the start of golf’s 2023 major championship season. Beginning at Augusta National for the Masters, as it typically does, the majors will go a long way to defining the game’s best next year.

While eyes around Augusta will be drawn to Tiger Woods and the return of Phil Mickelson, world No. 1 Rory McIlroy will resume his quest for the career grand slam. The four-time major champion is still without a green jacket in his closet and will attempt to become the sixth man to collect all four majors. Scottie Scheffler will also look to defend his green jacket after spending most of 2022 ranked as the top golfer in the world.

Moving onward past Augusta, Georgia, the focus will shift to Rochester, New York, for the PGA Championship. A year removed from Justin Thomas’ memorable seven-stroke come-from-behind victory at Southern Hills, the two-time PGA Championship winner will vie for his third Wanamaker Trophy at Oak Hill Country Club. Meanwhile, good friend Jordan Spieth is seeking his first, which would help him complete his own career grand slam.

A new major championship venue will be unveiled at the U.S. Open in June. Los Angeles Country Club will host its first major, also the first that will take place in the Los Angeles area across the last three decades. Past champions Matt Fitzpatrick, Jon Rahm and Bryson DeChambeau should expect a stern test from the relatively unknown site.

Then, as it has done since 2019, The Open Championship will put a bow on the major season. The 151st edition of the event will have big shoes to fill as it follows in the footsteps of Cameron Smith’s victory at the Old Course at St. Andrews. Royal Liverpool Golf Club at Hoylake will host The Open for the first time since McIlroy’s win in 2014 and wrap up what should be yet another fantastic major stretch.

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook

2023 major championship predictions

The Masters | Augusta National | April 6-9

Jon Rahm (12-1): If I had to bet on one player winning one major over the next 10 years, Jordan Spieth at the Open Championship and Jon Rahm at the Masters would both be at the top of the list. Rahm has been a beast at Augusta National. Among golfers with at least 24 rounds played at the Masters in the strokes-gained era, the top four in that category looks like this: Spieth (2.75 per round), Rahm (2.56), Tiger Woods (2.54), Phil Mickelson (2.25). That’s nine combined green jackets, and Rahm will eventually add to that total. — Kyle Porter

Xander Schauffele (18-1): Despite how successful Schauffele was in 2022, he disappointed in majors. I expect this to change in a massive way in 2023, and it all begins at Augusta National. His missed cut at the 2022 Masters was an anomaly as he possesses prior finishes of T3 in 2021 and T2 in 2019. With one of the higher major championship floors, chances are the 29-year-old will be in the mix come the final round and will hopefully be the one to slip on the green jacket. — Patrick McDonald

PGA Championship | Oak Hill Country Club | May 8-11

Will Zalatoris (25-1): Do I feel good about the back injury? I do not. Do I feel good about getting somebody who was three strokes from winning half the majors in 2022 at 25-1 for the second major of 2023? I do. Zalatoris is straight up nasty at major championships, and he’s possibly the best ball-striker in the world. He has finished in the top eight in six of his first 10 major starts (which is outrageous), and over the last 12 months, nobody has a better number than his 1.88 strokes gained ball-striking. Two pretty elite ball strikers duked it out last time there was a PGA at Oak Hill, and I imagine Zalatoris is going to walk in their footsteps this time around. — Kyle Porter

Collin Morikawa (20-1): The last time the PGA Championship travelled to Oak Hill Country Club, Jason Dufner edged Jim Furyk by two strokes, and to me, those two players scream pinpoint iron play and accurate driving. While the course will have lengthened significantly since, those two statistics will remain prevalent. Over the last 12 months, only one player ranks inside the top 10 in both strokes gained approach and driving accuracy. That’s right, two-time major champion Morikawa. — Patrick McDonald

U.S. Open | Los Angeles Country Club | June 15-18

Xander Schauffele (18-1): Schauffele’s U.S. Open career has been wild. He has six starts, and his worst finish is a T14 in 2022 at Brookline. His worst finish. In every other U.S. Open he’s played, Schauffele has gained at least 2.7 strokes , and all five of his other showings have been top sevens. The bottom line with Schauffele at U.S. Opens is that he contends. He’s in the mix. He’s always around the lead at the end of the event. At 18-1, that’s all you’re asking for. I do believe Schauffele will win multiple majors by the end of his career, and the U.S. Open will be one of them. — Kyle Porter

Patrick Cantlay (25-1): There are numerous names I like for this championship including Morikawa and Tony Finau, but I will land on Cantlay. The California kid hasn’t had the best track record in major championships but may have found something at the end of 2022 with finishes of T14 at the U.S. Open and T8 at The Open. His back still poses problems for him when the weather turns sour, but summertime in Los Angeles should provide the pathway for the world No. 4’s first major championship title. — Patrick McDonald

The Open | Royal Liverpool Golf Club | July 20-23

Jordan Spieth (16-1): At this point, it’s kind of an auto pick for me every year. He only has one finish outside the top 10 in his last five starts and that was a T20 at Royal Portrush when his game was held together with nothing more than hot glue and hope. There is seemingly an intangible quality when it comes to Spieth and Open Championships, something that all the strokes gained data in the world can’t quantify. I know that sounds like a justification or a reason for me to shoehorn Spieth into these picks, and perhaps that’s the case, but links golf and Open golf are more spiritual, more magical than any other version of the sport — and nobody is better suited to those whims than Spieth. — Kyle Porter

Cameron Young (50-1): If Young goes through a sophomore season resembling his freshman campaign, this number will be long gone come July. Runner up to Cameron Smith at the 150th Open at St. Andrews, Young has proven capable of competing with the best players in the world no matter the conditions. He is long off-the-tee and has all the tools in the shed. Given the success of his first links golf experience, he should contend once again. — Patrick McDonald

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Love and war, Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde, a locked-in Jordan Spieth doubling as Houdini, and the version of him blocking one-foot putts; when discussing the duality of man in the world of golf, one cannot give meaning to the conversation without at least a mention of the Texas rollercoaster.

Ever since traversing through a career valley from 2018-20, when he experienced the lowest of lows for a three-time major champion in his mid-20s, the steady ascension of Spieth back into the spotlight has been on full display. In 2022, Spieth entered the winner’s circle for the 13th time in his career when he got the better of Patrick Cantlay in a playoff at the RBC Heritage. Both players’ approach shots found the greenside bunker on the first extra hole, and when it was confirmed Cantlay’s ball was buried and Spieth’s was lying clean, it all but secured his lone title of the year.

That week in Hilton Head, South Carolina, was just a little snippet into Spieth’s year — and, from a broader perspective, his career. It featured everything that makes Jordan Spieth, well, Jordan Spieth: Hole-out bunker shots from impossible angles, chipping out sideways when a persistent Michael Greller urges, missing 1-foot putts (badly, I might add) and making everyone, himself included, believe the tournament is out of his grasp until somehow it is in the palm of his hand.

“You have a lot of events where you feel like you should have won and someone outplays you or makes the putt or something, and a couple times you have one where you feel like you played good but not good enough to win, and I honestly felt like this was that week,” Spieth said following his triumph at Harbour Town. “I needed a lot of things to go right. I needed to birdie the 18th then needed some help, got some help, dodged a bunch of bullets coming in and ended up in a one-on-one playoff where my lie in the bunker, although not great, was certainly better than Patrick’s. Yeah, it’s a bit of a surprise.”

The rest of Spieth’s regular season was relatively less surprising. He followed his victory with a runner-up performance to K.H. Lee at the Byron Nelson in his next start before capturing top-10 finishes at the Charles Schwab Challenge, Scottish Open and The Open to round out his year.

A strong final round at the Tour Championship propelled Spieth into the 2022 Presidents Cup at Quail Hollow as the most experienced member of the U.S. Team in a blink of an eye, and the golden boy-turned-man led by example. Garnering a 5-0-0 record in North Carolina, Spieth was perfect alongside Justin Thomas before capturing the first singles victory of his career between the Presidents Cup and Ryder Cup.

“I think I just used my example in here of the 2014 Ryder Cup and the 2015 season,” Spieth said on leveraging his Presidents Cup performance for the 2023 season. “I thought Scottie [Scheffler’s] last year into this year, I don’t want to put words into his mouth, but I thought he could probably draw on the experiences of last year’s Ryder Cup into his season this season …

“For me, yeah, I’m really excited about the week that was this week,” Spieth continued. “I thought that I played some of my best golf of the year this week, which was really cool to do it with and for — you know, as a team with these guys … there’s a lot I can draw on for next year.”

Despite this climb, there is still a ways to go to for him to return to his 2015 peak when he won the Masters, U.S. Open and Tour Championship. That begs the question: What should we expect Spieth’s 2023 to look like? Is one win, a strong team performance and a potential run at a major championship the new baseline from which we should define success for him? It is worth pondering how much staying power this new baseline may truly have. 

The romantic — and maybe even the agent of chaos — in me believes there’s more to be had. The talent pool on the PGA Tour has never been deeper. The accolades mentioned above do make for a fantastic season in this era. Yet, for a magician like Spieth who can wave his wand awkwardly on rehearsal and effortlessly just moments later, you can’t help but let your mind drift towards the unimaginable.

This season, the PGA Tour will unveil a new schedule which Spieth will very much be a part of after finishing third in the 2022 Player Impact Program behind only Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy. Playing in 13 elevated events that will feature the best talent on the circuit, four major championships and a handful of other tournaments, winning has suddenly become even more difficult.

Never an afterthought at Augusta, and proving to be one of the great links golf players of his time, Spieth’s name on the first page of a major championship leaderboard is expected at least once a year regardless of form. When the PGA Tour travels to the state of Texas, the same presence will be assumed from the former Longhorn.

Perhaps this leads to his first multiple-win season since 2017. Perhaps he is without new hardware as he was the three years following. Maybe his name jumps next to four-time major champions like McIlroy, Brooks Koepka, Ernie Els and Raymond Floyd. Maybe he does one better and joins the ranks of Seve Ballesteros and Byron Nelson.

On paper, accomplishing in 2023 what he did in 2022 would merit calling the season a success. However, golf isn’t played on paper, and the projection of Spieth’s next 365 days doesn’t belong on it either.

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Bromance will be strong in the seventh edition of The Match. Featuring 15-time major champion Tiger Woods alongside his business partner and good friend Rory McIlroy squaring off with the all-American duo of Jordan Spieth and Justin Thomas, the charity golf exhibition welcomes four major champions to Pelican Golf Club in Belleair, Florida, on Saturday. 

Woods and McIlroy possess 19 major championships between the two, while Spieth and Thomas lag behind with a measly five. While both pairs are experienced, only Woods has previously participated in The Match. Playing in the inaugural competition, Woods fell to Phil Mickelson in extra holes before exacting revenge over Mickelson and Tom Brady alongside Peyton Manning in the second edition of the event.

The 46-year-old may know what to expect from the competition, but perhaps not from his own game. Not seen in competition since The 150th Open, Woods was expected to play in the 2022 Hero World Challenge before being forced to withdraw due to plantar fasciitis in his right foot. 

“I like playing, I like competing, but unfortunately, I can hit the golf ball and hit whatever shot you want, I just can’t walk,” said Woods at the onset of his event in The Bahamas.

Fortunately for Woods, all competitors will use golf carts, and he happens to be paired with the best player in the game in world No. 1 McIlroy. The Northern Irishman is fresh off winning the DP World Tour Championship, capturing the European crown in conjunction with his FedEx Cup title from this past summer. McIlroy may be in the best form of the four players, but doubting Spieth and Thomas in a team competition has proven to be unwise in the past.

Garnering a 4-0-0 record with each other at the 2022 Presidents Cup, Spieth and Thomas were unstoppable at Quail Hollow Club in September. They are 16-7-1 when paired together between the Presidents Cup and Ryder Cup, and should give Woods and McIlroy all they can handle over the course of a 12-hole best ball match.

LIVE updates: Follow along with all the action from The Match at this link here. 

The Match 7

Viewing information

Date: Saturday, Dec 10 | Time 7 p.m. ET 
Location: Pelican Golf Club — Belleair, Florida
Broadcast: TNT | Simulcast: TBS, truTV, HLN

Format

The Match will be contested under 12 holes of match play and best-ball format. Each player will play his own ball, and the best individual score from each team will count for the hole. 

Teams

Tiger Woods & Rory McIlroy: They played in an exhibition at Big Cedar Lodge following the 2020 U.S. Open, but outside of that and practice rounds, the two do not have any experience alongside each other in the team setting. Woods is the major question mark among the four players, but any concerns may be squashed given his playing partner. McIlroy is playing some of the best golf of his career, and Woods has alway been known as someone to underdeliver to the media and overdeliver on the golf course. Perhaps this will be one of those instances as well.

Jordan Spieth & Justin Thomas: Thomas finished the Hero World Challenge on a high note to grab a solo fifth-place result, while Spieth nearly brought up the rear for the second straight year. These two can ham-and-egg it with the best of them and know each other’s game maybe better than their own. With a history of performing at their peak alongside each other, it is no surprise they are listed as the favorites in this one. However, if Tiger and Rory are smart (which they are), they won’t be giving these two too many gimmes — much to the dismay of Thomas — as short putts have been a thorn in both of their sides.

Rick Gehman, Kyle Porter and Patrick McDonald preview The Match featuring Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy vs Justin Thomas and Jordan Spieth.  Follow & listen to The First Cut on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

Picks, odds

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook

Spieth/Thomas: -125 | Woods/McIlroy: +105

There has been significant movement in this line since opening. Woods and McIlroy were actually -120 favorites at one point, but have since drifted to plus money as the underdogs. Spieth and Thomas should hypothetically roll, however, these charity events have seen some surprises with the best putters tending to win. That isn’t the strength of Thomas, and surely not Spieth, which makes me believe the current form of McIlroy combined with a sprinkle of Woods magic will be enough to see them come out on top. Pick: Woods/McIlroy +105

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Saturday’s seventh edition of The Match — this one featuring Tiger Woods, Jordan Spieth, Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas — should be as entertaining as golf gets at this time of the year. That quartet hasn’t been playing a ton, but these exhibition events are more about the interaction than the golf anyway, and the interaction should be phenomenal.

Woods and McIlroy will take on Spieth and Thomas at 7 p.m. ET on Saturday at Pelican Golf Club (more details here). The latter pair is favored, which led Thomas to joke Wednesday in a conference call that the sharps totally know what they’re doing when it comes to setting the lines.

There is plenty to be excited about when it comes to this particular event — perhaps Woods’ return to golf for the first time since July’s Open Championship most of all — and even though this best-ball match will only last 12 holes, it should be terrifically entertaining. Here are four things I’ll be looking for when the festivities get underway on Saturday.

1. Tiger’s health: There are a lot of very not serious items to tick off on Saturday night at Pelican, but Tiger’s health is not one of them. He withdrew from last week’s Hero World Challenge with plantar fasciitis and casually mentioned that he’d had other procedures earlier this year. He has insisted that he’ll be fine as long as he has a golf cart (he will Saturday), but I’m mildly dubious about his overall mobility.

There should not be (although there undoubtedly will be) any extrapolations made about next year’s major championships based on the 50 or so shots Woods hits at this event, but it’s been five months since we’ve seen him swing a golf club competitively. That’s not nothing, and the best swing of all time — whether it is affected by the myriad ailments Tiger feels in the rest of his body — will be under a microscope over the next 10 days (here and at the PNC Championship where he will tee it up with his son, Charlie).

2. Who is the best trash talker? Back to the more insouciant topics. There was debate on Wednesday about this. Tiger said he was limited in terms of the vocabulary he could use. Rory said he knows J.T. thinks he’s the best talker. J.T. and Spieth said they were so outclassed when it comes to wins and majors that they might have to take the nice guy route instead of going right at two guys with a combined 19 major championships. (Spieth and J.T. have five.) Banter at events like these is normally neutered, but hopefully the fellas get a little loose, and we get some top-notch one-liners.

3. Night golf: Spieth spoke about how he’s never played night golf before and how much he was looking forward to doing so. I am equally excited about some primetime East Coast golf in the winter. Normally, when golf is televised at these times, it’s on the West Coast, but this event should feel a little bigger than normal because it’s under the lights. I don’t know that this will affect the outcome (unless the lights on the carts malfunction for some reason), but it does add to the festivities a bit.

4. Best match ever: Up to this point, the most collective majors at a match like this one was 21 (Tiger and Phil Mickelson, multiple times). This group has 24 combined, and it represents the most collective talent at any of the seven official matches to date. Granted, 15 of those came from the guy who hasn’t played in five months, but three of the other players are among the 15 best in the world right now. If this thing is close late — and it likely will be — the battle for a meaningless victory certainly won’t feel like just another exhibition.

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Bromance will be strong in the seventh edition of The Match. Featuring 15-time major champion Tiger Woods alongside his business partner and good friend Rory McIlroy squaring off with the all-American duo of Jordan Spieth and Justin Thomas, the charity golf exhibition welcomes four major champions to Pelican Golf Club in Belleair, Florida, on Saturday. 

Woods and McIlroy possess 19 major championships between the two, while Spieth and Thomas lag behind with a measly five. While both pairs are experienced, only Woods has previously participated in The Match. Playing in the inaugural competition, Woods fell to Phil Mickelson in extra holes before exacting revenge over Mickelson and Tom Brady alongside Peyton Manning in the second edition of the event.

The 46-year-old may know what to expect from the competition, but perhaps not from his own game. Not seen in competition since The 150th Open, Woods was expected to play in the 2022 Hero World Challenge before being forced to withdraw due to plantar fasciitis in his right foot. 

“I like playing, I like competing, but unfortunately, I can hit the golf ball and hit whatever shot you want, I just can’t walk,” said Woods at the onset of his event in The Bahamas.

Fortunately for Woods, all competitors will use golf carts, and he happens to be paired with the best player in the game in world No. 1 McIlroy. The Northern Irishman is fresh off winning the DP World Tour Championship, capturing the European crown in conjunction with his FedEx Cup title from this past summer. McIlroy may be in the best form of the four players, but doubting Spieth and Thomas in a team competition has proven to be unwise in the past.

Garnering a 4-0-0 record with each other at the 2022 Presidents Cup, Spieth and Thomas were unstoppable at Quail Hollow Club in September. They are 16-7-1 when paired together between the Presidents Cup and Ryder Cup, and should give Woods and McIlroy all they can handle over the course of a 12-hole best ball match.

The Match 7

Viewing information

Date: Saturday, Dec 10 | Time 7 p.m. ET 
Location: Pelican Golf Club — Belleair, Florida
Broadcast: TNT | Simulcast: TBS, truTV, HLN

Format

The Match will be contested under 12 holes of match play and best-ball format. Each player will play his own ball, and the best individual score from each team will count for the hole. 

Teams

Tiger Woods & Rory McIlroy: They played in an exhibition at Big Cedar Lodge following the 2020 U.S. Open, but outside of that and practice rounds, the two do not have any experience alongside each other in the team setting. Woods is the major question mark among the four players, but any concerns may be squashed given his playing partner. McIlroy is playing some of the best golf of his career, and Woods has alway been known as someone to underdeliver to the media and overdeliver on the golf course. Perhaps this will be one of those instances as well.

Jordan Spieth & Justin Thomas: Thomas finished the Hero World Challenge on a high note to grab a solo fifth-place result, while Spieth nearly brought up the rear for the second straight year. These two can ham-and-egg it with the best of them and know each other’s game maybe better than their own. With a history of performing at their peak alongside each other, it is no surprise they are listed as the favorites in this one. However, if Tiger and Rory are smart (which they are), they won’t be giving these two too many gimmes — much to the dismay of Thomas — as short putts have been a thorn in both of their sides.

Rick Gehman, Kyle Porter and Patrick McDonald preview The Match featuring Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy vs Justin Thomas and Jordan Spieth.  Follow & listen to The First Cut on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

Picks, odds

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook

Spieth/Thomas: -125 | Woods/McIlroy: +105

There has been significant movement in this line since opening. Woods and McIlroy were actually -120 favorites at one point, but have since drifted to plus money as the underdogs. Spieth and Thomas should hypothetically roll, however, these charity events have seen some surprises with the best putters tending to win. That isn’t the strength of Thomas, and surely not Spieth, which makes me believe the current form of McIlroy combined with a sprinkle of Woods magic will be enough to see them come out on top. Pick: Woods/McIlroy +105

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