The first round of the 2023 Tournament of Champions was everything you’d want from the opening event of a calendar year: Superstars at the top, birdies all over the yard and — of course! — Jordan Spieth doing his normal unicycle ride while juggling flaming torches.

A trio of leaders sit at the top of the field as Collin Morikawa, Jon Rahm and J.J. Spaun all co-lead at 9 under on the par-73 Kapalua course. A crowded pack that includes Tom Kim, Tom Hoge, Sungjae Im and Scottie Scheffler is hot on their heels, however. That means there’s plenty of star power capable of making a run over the next three days. 

We’ll dive into their rounds below, as well as what to expect the rest of the week from this loaded field. With the first event of 2023 underway, let’s dive into the first round of the Tournament of Champions. 

The leaders

T1. Jon Rahm, J.J. Spaun, Collin Morikawa (-9): Rahm followed his 33-under performance a year ago with a 9-under 63 on Thursday, and he now has 40 birdies and two eagles in his last 90 holes at Kapalua. After playing the front nine in 31, he got into a bothersome spot on the back with a bogey at the par-4 14th. That bogey set him back a bit, but he closed with three birdies in his last four holes, including a near-eagle at the last hole that turned into an easy bird.

Rahm is going to be extraordinarily difficult to keep up with if he putts like he did on Thursday when he led the field at nearly four strokes gained on the round (Matt Fitzpatrick and Viktor Hovland were second best at 2.07). He likely won’t putt like that, but good luck to the field against somebody who is averaging 8.4 strokes under par in his last five rounds here.

Other contenders

4. Tom Kim (-8)

T5. Matt Fitzpatrick, Aaron Wise, Tom Hoge, Mackenzie Hughes, Sungjae Im, Scottie Scheffler (-7)

Scheffler was probably the most interesting out of this group. He putted horribly — he lost nearly two strokes on the greens and made one putt over 5 feet — but he still shot 66. That’s scary coming from the No. 2 player in the world. Scheffler has something at stake here beyond winning, too. He needs a top-three finish to regain the No. 1 ranking in the world from Rory McIlroy, who is not playing this week at Kapalua.

Kim exceeding expectations

It probably shouldn’t surprise me that Kim shot 65, but it still does. As bullish as I am on him as a person and a potential star, I’m equally dubious that his statistical profile meets the modern thriving top-10 player. And yet, at every level he’s played, he’s continued to win and win and win. In 81 OWGR starts, he has eight wins, and his PGA Tour winning percentage is slightly better. I want to be wrong about him in the long term because he’s so much fun to write about and cover (see below), but I have to say I didn’t necessarily see this round coming from him at Kapalua.

Shot of the day

Jordan Spieth had a very Jordan Spieth round. He missed a 2-foot putt but also took a full swing from 33 feet away on the 15th hole for par following some problems in the bunker on his third shot. If you’ve ever tried to take a full swing with any club from 30 feet, it’s basically impossible to hole the shot, but here we are.

Spieth also had an amazing exchange in which he asked two gentleman at the event if they could tone down the wagering chatter while he was putting. A very normal early season start for Spieth.

Shot of the day, Part II 

The hole-out eagle was great, but Kim asking the cameras if they caught it was even better.

Morikawa is fine

I recently wrote about some of the consternation surrounding Collin Morikawa at the end of 2022, a year in which he did not win. This stat from Data Golf should sum up how I feel about where he’s at right now:

• Strokes gained 2020-21 season: 1.41 (3 wins)
• Strokes gained 2021-22 season: 1.41 (0 wins)

Furthermore, Morikawa’s ceiling didn’t really change. He went from third to sixth in the world in 95th percentile rounds. In other words, his best stuff was still among the best stuff of other top-10 players in the world. What did change is that he didn’t win, which can be attributed to so many other things (luck, good bounces, field makeup etc.). Morikawa was undervalued overall coming into 2023, and though he won’t play as well as he did on Thursday for the rest of the year, I think it’s emblematic of what we could be in for with him this year. There’s still time to buy low.

2023 Tournament of Champions updated odds and picks

• Jon Rahm: +240
• Collin Morikawa: +650
• Scottie Scheffler: 8-1
• Tom Kim: 12-1
• Sungjae Im: 14-1
• Tony Finau: 16-1
• Matt Fitzpatrick: 16-1
• Jordan Spieth: 22-1
• Viktor Hovland: 22-1
• Aaron Wise: 22-1

To the surprise of nobody, I’m in on Spieth at 22-1. He plays great at this golf course, and he’s helped when he has a lot of external things going on (slope, wind, etc.) because it gets him out of his own head. He didn’t even putt well on Thursday and still found a way to shoot 67. In terms of the leaders, Morikawa at +650 is the play for me. Rahm’s putting round was magnificent, which won’t continue, and Morikawa is still being a tad undervalued because he’s coming on off a year in which he didn’t win at all.

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Jon Rahm will almost certainly be at this year’s Ryder Cup in Rome, but the group that joins him on the European side for the biennial competition has never been more up in the air. It’s not just the Europeans, either, as the United States team is going to have some decisions to make when it comes to September’s event — particularly as it pertains to LIV Golf participants joining in on the festivities. 

“There’s some people that are going to have to make some tough choices, right?” said Rahm on Tuesday at the Tournament of Champions where he will open his 2023 campaign. “A little bit of that is out of my reach. My guess is I hope the PGA of America and European Tour make a decision together. I don’t think it would be smart to have one team allowing LIV players and one not to.

“And besides that, even if they decide not to on that side, I think it’s going to give an opportunity for a lot of great young players to show up and have the chance in Europe, right? It’s just going to be an opportunity for all of them. We saw a younger U.S. team last Ryder Cup and they did what they did. So I’m hoping these younger guys who have grown up watching the Ryder Cup and seeing their idols do what they do, let’s say, it energizes the team a little bit in any manner and we show up there to win.”

Decisions are not unusual, of course, as captains for both sides always have to make picks for the matches (both teams will have six wild card selections this year). But the organizations that run this event — PGA of America on the U.S. side and European Tour on the European side — have some more philosophical choices to make before the captains make their selections.

Namely (as Rahm noted): Should LIV Golf player be eligible to participate in the Ryder Cup?

Several of the top players in the world left the PGA Tour and European Tour in 2022 to join the Saudi-backed startup golf league, and both of those leagues attempted to suspend those players from playing. The PGA Tour was successful in doing so while a court ruled that European Tour players could — for the time being — play in European Tour events. A court is supposed to issue a final ruling in February.

There has been much debate about what this should mean for players outside of these two leagues. The Masters, for example, recently said that any LIV player that qualified for its 2023 event would be eligible to play for that event. This seems perfunctory, but given how chaotic the last year has been, it was treated as big news.

In September, the PGA Tour — which, as a reminder, is a very different organization than the PGA of America — banned all golfers from participating in the Presidents Cup, which it runs on both the United States and international sides. Interestingly, international captain Trevor Immelman asked why Louis Oosthuizen could not play as he resigned his PGA Tour membership and an international Presidents Cup player doesn’t have to be a PGA Tour member to play in the Presidents Cup. He was told that Oosthuizen violated PGA Tour rules while he was still a member.

All of this is messy, and it’s up for debate over which team it will affect more. Of the top 12 players on the European side (according to Data Golf), only one — Paul Casey — is a LIV player, although Sergio Garcia and Lee Westwood are on the cusp of being in that top 12. When it comes to the Americans, only Dustin Johnson is inside the top 12 while nobody else is in the top 20 (Talor Gooch is 25th).

The European Tour is in more of a bind than the PGA of America, and the ultimate decision will likely be dictated by what the Euro side wants. After attempting to keep players from playing on its tour, an about face when it comes to the Ryder Cup it also runs would feel disingenuous. Again, this probably (?) won’t matter significantly when it comes to the construction of the team, but Rahm wants Garcia there, and Rahm has a lot of sway on the European side.

Regardless of how it plays out, this is going to be one of the bigger storylines of 2023. All of our focus has been on what the major championships are going to decide when it comes to LIV golfers, but the Ryder Cup (and both organizations that run it) are in that boat as well. And while major decisions will affect a small percentage of the fields that play in them, Ryder Cup choices could (could!) have a massive effect on the actual outcome of this year’s event.

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The top PGA Tour golfers will ring in the new year in Hawaii as they tee off Thursday at the 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions on the Plantation Course at Kapalua. The Sentry Tournament of Champions field is led by world No. 2 Scottie Scheffler, 2022 Sentry runner-up Jon Rahm and two-time tournament winner Justin Thomas. World No. 1 Rory McIlroy will use his only opt-out from the PGA Tour’s elevated events to compete in Europe for a few more weeks. Cameron Smith, the 2022 Sentry TOC champion, also will be absent after moving to LIV Golf. A 39-player Tournament of Champions field that also features Patrick Cantlay, Collin Morikawa and Jordan Spieth will take on a forgiving Plantation Course that yields low scores. Smith shot 34 under in Maui last year to edge Rahm by one stroke.         

The latest 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions odds from Caesars Sportsbook list Rahm as the 8-1 favorite, followed closely by Scheffler, Thomas and Xander Schauffele at 10-1. Cantlay is 12-1, while half a dozen golfers are priced at 18-1, including Morikawa and Tony Finau. Spieth and reigning Rookie of the Year Cameron Young are priced at 20-1 in the Tournament of Champions 2023 field. Before locking in any 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions picks, be sure you check out the PGA Tour predictions and best bets from SportsLine golf insider Patrick McDonald.

After spending time at FanSided and NBC Sports EDGE, McDonald joined CBS Sports as a golf writer in the spring of 2022. Now covering the sport from a broader perspective, McDonald still likes to dip his toes into the betting pools on a weekly basis on the PGA Tour. 

McDonald takes a measured approach to his outright selections and is having a profitable 2022-23 season in every category. He nailed the Houston Open, backing Tony Finau to win at 25-1, and is up more than 16 units on his plays overall. That’s a profit of more than $1,600 for $100 bettors. The expert also has been on the money on his matchup plays and cashed in huge on Brendan Steele (80-1) as the first-round leader at the Zozo Championship.

The expert finished the 2021-22 season up 42 units on his outright plays, having hit Cameron Smith (22-1) at the Tournament of Champions, Hudson Swafford (250-1) at The American Express, Joaquin Niemann (70-1) at the Genesis Invitational and Justin Thomas (66-1) live at the PGA Championship. Anyone who follows McDonald’s advice has been cashing in.

Now, McDonald has studied the 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions field and locked in his best bets, top sleepers and favorites to avoid. You can head to SportsLine now to see all his PGA picks and predictions.  

Top 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions expert picks

Shockingly, McDonald is fading U.S. Open champion Matt Fitzpatrick (18-1) for this week at Kapalua. The Englishman is a grinder and thrives in tough conditions, but this week in Maui will be for the low scorers. Fitzpatrick has tied for 13th in both outings this season and has two top-10’s in seven PGA Tour since his win at Brookline. He finished third on tour in scoring average last season but ranked 109th in par breakers and didn’t shoot lower than 64 all season. He has not finished higher than 14th at Augusta, a comparable course to Kapalua, since 2016.     

On the other hand, the expert knows Rahm will be out to match his 2022 performance – and come away with a victory. The Spaniard shot 66 or lower in all four rounds last year and comes in on fire. He ended 2022 with five consecutive top-10 finishes worldwide, four of those in the top five. That includes victories at the Spanish Open and DP World Tour Championship. The former world No. 1 has 16 career victories worldwide, but his only tour triumph last year came at the Mexico Open. He ranked first in total driving and third in greens in regulation in 2021-22. You can see who else to back at Kapalua here.

How to make 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions golf picks

McDonald has locked in his best bets for the 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions. His outright plays include a golfer who has excelled on similar courses but just doesn’t have the victories to show for it. If he pulls off the victory at Kapalua, anyone who backs him would cash in at more than 20-1. You can find out who it is, and see the rest of McDonald’s Sentry Tournament of Champions picks, predictions, and best bets at SportsLine.

So which 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions picks should you target? Which talented golfer could pull off a surprise victory in this loaded Tournament of Champions field for a payoff of more than 20-1? Check out the odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Patrick McDonald’s top prop picks for Sentry Tournament of Champions 2023, all from the expert who is up more than $1,600 on his PGA Tour picks this season, and find out.

2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions odds, field, top contenders

See full Sentry Tournament of Champions 2023 picks, best bets, and predictions here.

Jon Rahm +800
Scottie Scheffler +1000
Xander Schauffele +1000
Justin Thomas +1000
Patrick Cantlay +1200
Viktor Hovland +1800
Tony Finau +1800
Joo-hyung (Tom) Kim +1800
Matthew Fitzpatrick +1800
Sungjae Im +1800
Collin Morikawa +1800
Jordan Spieth +2000
Cam Young +2000
Max Homa +2800
Sam Burns +2800
Will Zalatoris +2800
Hideki Matsuyama +2800
Sahith Theegala +3300
Billy Horschel +4000
Seamus Power +4500
Aaron Wise +4500
Corey Conners +4500
K.H. Lee +5000
Keegan Bradley +5000
Russell Henley +5000
Sepp Straka +5500
Tom Hoge +6000
Adam Scott +6000
Brian Harman +6000
Mackenzie Hughes +7000
Luke List +7500
Trey Mullinax +8000
J.T. Poston +8500
Adam Svensson +8500
J J Spaun +9000
Scott Stallings +10000
Chez Reavie +12500
Chad Ramey +12500
Ryan Brehm +20000

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The world was still Jon Rahm’s oyster in 2022 despite questions swirling about his performance following a career-defining season the year prior. Entering January as the world No. 1, fresh off a campaign that saw him finish inside the top 10 in 15 of 24 starts while capturing his first major championship at the 2021 U.S. Open, Rahm looked have to retained this momentum in the early parts of the new year. 

Having one of the highest floors in the sphere of professional golf, the Spaniard disappointingly lost in a shootout to Cameron Smith at the Tournament of Champions, showed visible frustration over the conditions at The American Express and scuttled over the weekend at Torrey Pines.

Concerns surrounding Rahm’s short game began to reverberate through the golf world when a relative lull surfaced in early spring that included three top-20 finishes in five starts. Relinquishing his spot atop the Official World Golf Rankings and needing to squash any naysayers, the 28-year-old came to the Mexico Open as a heavy betting favorite and delivered in such a way.

Rahm’s triumph in Mexico propelled him to weekend contention at the U.S. Open and a runner-up performance at the BMW PGA Championship before notching victories at the Open de España and the DP World Tour Championship. Three wins in his final 14 worldwide starts of 2022 saved what many considered a down year for a player of Rahm’s caliber.

“Hopefully, people can stop telling me that this was a bad year,” Rahm said following his victory at the DP World Tour finale. “Three wins worldwide. Three wins on three different continents. Yeah, there wasn’t a major championship, but it was still a really, really good season.”

A really, really good season? Yes. A great season? No. Harsh, perhaps, that is not to say 2023 will be the same as the clip at which Rahm wins continues to be absurd.

His 2021 season showcased quality. Penciling him in for a victory at the Memorial — where he had to withdraw before the final round with a six-stroke lead due to a positive COVID-19 test — and breaking through for his lone major title at the U.S. Open, Rahm was simply dominant.

The golf course, the weather, the competition — none of it mattered. If there was a tournament to be played, Rahm was going to be in contention. That’s how high his floor was, but more importantly, how high his ceiling was.

Rahm’s 2022 was inherently different despite totaling a higher win count. The quality lacked as he contended in only one major championship, and his lone PGA Tour title came against one of the weakest fields of the season. Winning matters, and Rahm checked that box this past year. But in 2023, expect him to return to his ways of two years ago.

While the standard of his wins was downgraded, Rahm remained the standard for success off-the-tee. Gaining 1.025 strokes per round with the driver in hand, Rahm led the PGA Tour in the statistic and was nearly two times more effective than Patrick Cantlay, who ranked 17th on the season, three times more effective than Scottie Scheffler (37th) and four times more effective than Billy Horschel (50th).

The most predictive strokes gained statistic, Rahm’s blend of distance and accuracy off-the-tee will allow him to tally those 2.5 victories a year. It’s a weapon, yes, a difference-maker, for sure, but it is not the club which will allow him to add major No. 2 or possibly No. 3 in 2023.

That honor goes to his putter. Finding something in his setup on the back-nine of his second round at the 2022 BMW Championship, Rahm rolled the rock with the best of them coming down the stretch of the calendar year. Averaging +1.45 strokes gained putting per round over his last five measured events, Rahm returned to the 2021 version of himself.

Whether this is only for a brief stretch or a prolonged period will define Rahm’s 2023. If the former reigns supreme, look for Rahm to nab a couple wins on the DP World Tour, and maybe even one of the newly elevated events on the PGA Tour. However, if the latter prevails, the world No. 5 will have a real chance to end his year as he began the prior: atop the world of golf and with a shiny, new major championship trophy on his mantle.

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Golf has never been in better hands as some of the biggest names in the sport are still on the younger side. Securely in the prime of their careers, these players have been able to etch their names into golf’s history books and will continue to add to their stories in the coming years. 

In 2022, all four major championship winners checked in as golfers under age 30, and the same would be true for 2021 if not for Phil Mickelson’s memorable PGA Championship victory at Kiawah Island. Dating back to 2017, 16 of the last 23 major championship winners were yet to reach 30 with outliers like Tiger Woods’ 2019 Masters triumph and Dustin Johnson’s green jacket win a year later.

Some of those also included Hideki Matsuyama and Brooks Koepka, who have since surpassed age 30. Patrick Cantlay is another player who recently celebrated his 30th birthday, and as such, will not be on the list below.

While the world of golf is divided, for this particular list, the focus remains on the PGA Tour. Cameron Smith should be among this group of players and Joaquin Niemann perhaps on the outskirts, but without playing against the best on a consistent basis, the water in which they tread has only become muddier.

Here’s a look at 10 best golfers under the age of 30 on the PGA Tour and what to expect from them in 2023.

Top 10 under 30

1. Jon Rahm (28): Three wins was considered a down year by most prognosticators, just not by Rahm himself. Winning the Mexico Open, Open de España and the DP World Tour Championship, the man who began 2022 as the world No. 1 ended his year winning three times in his last 14 worldwide starts. Making all four cuts in the major championships, the Spaniard’s best finish was T12 at the U.S. Open where he shot 5 over his last 36 holes. Contention and victory in major championships is the barometer in which success is defined for him moving forward — whether he likes it or not. If able to recreate his 2020-21 where in six major championships he captured five top-10 finishes, including his lone major title at the 2021 U.S. Open, there is a good chance Rahm returns to the top of the golf world in 2023.

2. Scottie Scheffler (26): His coming out party was the spring of 2022, but the rest of Scheffler’s year was still impressive. Winning four times in a six tournament stretch, the Texan captured a World Golf Championship, rose to world No. 1 and donned the green jacket all in less than two months. Scheffler went onto squander late leads at the Charles Schwab Challenge and the Tour Championship where he ultimately finished runner up. A third second-place finished occurred at the U.S. Open where had a near birdie miss on the 72nd hole dropped, a playoff with Matt Fitzpatrick would have been forced. The Presidents Cup was a letdown, but even the best players have lulls from time-to-time. Scheffler will be a fixture on this list for the foreseeable future and given the well-rounded nature of his game, additional major championship trophies are likely to be his.

3. Xander Schauffele (29): This past year was a transformative one for Schauffele, who much like Tony Finau was labeled as a player who shrivels down the stretch of big tournaments. Winning the Zurich Classic alongside Cantlay added to the bizarre nature in which he raised trophies (limited field, no cuts, The Olympics), but Schauffele added to his own total during the summer. Outlasting Sahith Theegala at the Travelers Championship, he returned to the winner’s circle again in his following start at the Scottish Open. A strong showing in the FedEx Cup Playoffs put a bow on a nice season, but similar to Rahm, the major championship acumen we are used to seeing was nowhere to be found. Since 2017, Schauffele has 15 top-20 finishes in 22 major championship appearances. With six of those coming in the form of top-five finishes — and two of those runners-up — Schauffele may have shed one label in 2022 but will likely add another in “best player without a major” in 2023 unless he does something, well, major.

4. Justin Thomas (29): Now 15 times a winner on the PGA Tour, Thomas is firmly among the elite in the game. Placing him fourth on the list may even be a bit harsh, but while the quality of his victories persist, the quantity has lagged behind. It took a herculean effort — and some help from Mito Pereira — at the PGA Championship to nab his second Wanamaker Trophy for his lone title of 2022. Outmanned by Sam Burns at the Valspar Championship and Rory McIlroy at the Canadian Open, Thomas put himself in contention enough to garner a multiple-win season, but was unable to do so. This marked the third season in the last four years where he came away with only one trophy. Those may consist of the 2022 PGA Championship and 2021 Players Championship; however, Thomas is too good a player to enter the winner’s circle one time a year. Expect this to change in 2023.

5. Collin Morikawa (25): Tell most players they would finish inside the top five in two of the four major championships, and they would take it and run. Morikawa? Not so much. Nearly tracking down Niemann at the Genesis Invitational, the two-time major champion looked prime to enter the winner’s circle in the early spring. Not to be, Morikawa finished solo fifth at the Masters before a relatively uneventful start to his summer. Fighting his swing, he arrived at The Country Club for the U.S. Open frustrated with the flight of his iron shots, only to be the 36-hole leader days later. A 7-over 77 in the third round derailed his chance to add the third leg of the career grand slam, but still he battled in the final round to finish T5. Without a worldwide win in over a year, Morikawa is remains a top-tier player. Given the quality of his irons and the implementation of a putting coach, he should have no problem ending this dry spell in 2023.

6. Matt Fitzpatrick (28): The perception of Fitzpatrick changed in 2022. Once a scrawny Englishman in need of a hot putting week to just contend, he transformed into a major champion wielding his driver with the best of the them. While it appeared to happen overnight, consistent speed training sessions and hard work were the cog for Fitzpatrick’s ascension. Joining Jack Nicklaus and Juli Inkster as the only players to win the U.S. Amateur and the U.S. Open on the same golf course, Fitzpatrick squashed the haters who questioned if he would ever win on the PGA Tour. In total, Fitzpatrick captured 17 top-25 finishes in 24 worldwide starts and showcased his upside that has been on full display in Europe since 2015.

7. Will Zalatoris (26): He is built for the moment, and while the bounces didn’t go his way for much of 2022, they finally did in the end. Zalatoris continued to be one of the best major championship competitors this past year as he lost in a playoff at the PGA Championship and fell one stroke short of Fitzpatrick at the U.S. Open. In 10 major championship appearances, he has three runners-up and three additional top-10 finishes. His ball-striking allows him to factor at difficult golf courses and it did just that at the St. Jude Championship in August. In unison with some timely putting, Zalatoris beat Sepp Straka in a playoff in Memphis to win his first PGA Tour title. The floodgates were promptly shut the following week when he was forced to withdraw during the BMW Championship due to a back injury, and he has not been seen in action since. Back injuries are always scary when discussing golfers, and Zalatoris will be no different. Possessing a wiry frame, he will make his return at the Tournament of Champions and hopefully put any health concerns in the rearview mirror.

8. Viktor Hovland (25): Simply put, Hovland wins. It may not be pretty, it may not be flashy, and it may not happen at the most prestigious tournaments, but still, the Norwegian finds a way to collect hardware on a consistent basis. That has to count for something. Since 2020, he has won seven times worldwide and 2022 showed us he may soon rise to the occasion in the biggest of championships. Alongside Rory McIlroy in the final pair in the final round of the 150th Open at St. Andrews, Hovland ultimately fell off the pace to finish T4. Experiencing his first taste of contention in a major championship, this should only aid him in his future endeavors. His short game has improved drastically from the low point of the final round of the Arnold Palmer Invitational where he let that trophy slip from his grasp, and if it continues on this trajectory, Hovland’s underrated win total should only tick up.

9. Jordan Spieth (29): This time next year, he’ll be 30, but still Spieth finds his way onto this list. Since going through the lowest of lows from 2018-20, he has clawed his way back into relevance with wins at the 2021 Texas Open and 2022 RBC Heritage. A member of winning Ryder Cup and Presidents teams the last two years, the next step in the three-time major champion’s return to prominence is to bag a a big one. He has been close with a couple podium finishes in 2021 and given his improvements both off the tee and on approach in 2022, this upcoming year will say a lot about the state of Spieth’s place in the game. The putter will unquestionably have to be on better behavior, and if it is, Spieth could be on the cusp of his first multiple-win season since 2017.

10. Cameron Young (25): He will win in 2023. Finishing on the podium seven times in his rookie campaign — without getting over the hump once — Young consistently put himself in position to win golf tournaments. Variance, luck and perhaps some inexperience hindered his efforts to raise a trophy, but that will no longer be an appropriate excuse in 2023. Finishing second at the Genesis Invitational, third at the PGA Championship and second at The Open, his name became a staple on the first page of the leaderboard in some of the biggest events of the year. His father has left his post at Sleppy Hollow to join him on Tour on a full-time basis and perhaps this familiar face will propel Young to new heights and into the winner’s circle.

Honorable mentions: Sam Burns, Sungjae Im, Tom Kim

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The 2023 golf year is just around the corner, and it’s time to evaluate where the best players in the world stand going as the new season unfolds. Depending on where you look, most players are properly rated, but there are always those who are either a bit overrated because of recent conquests or a bit underrated because it’s been a while since they raised a trophy (or perhaps for other reasons).

I put together a list of players underrated by the golf community heading into 2023. It includes some serial candidates (Keith Mitchell and Sungjae Im) but also some surprises (Collin Morikawa and Jon Rahm). This is not meant to be a list of players who have an equal chance of doing something great in 2023 but rather a list of players I believe will, over the next 12 months, perform at a level beyond the current expectations folks have for them.

Here’s a look at seven golfers I pinpointed with evidence for why they are currently being underrated and have a chance to thrive in 2023.

1. Sungjae Im

Arguably the best player in the world who didn’t win anywhere in 2022. Im put together three runner-up finishes, six other top-12 finishes and had the best strokes gained number (1.6) of any golfer who did not have a victory in 2022. At just 24, he still has room to grow, too. He’s improved statistically in six of his last seven seasons, and I think he wins one-to-three times in 2023 and contends for at least one major championship.

2. Aaron Wise

He’s been a sexy “this guy could be on the U.S. Ryder Cup team next year” pick over the last few months, but there is plenty of evidence to back that up. Wise is a tremendous ball-striker, who seemingly solved his putting woes in 2022. It resulted in five top-15 finishes, including at big boy events like the CJ Cup and the Memorial. Similar to Im, he’s improved statistically in three of his last five seasons, and a 2023 in which he wins a few times and gets himself to Rome is not out of the question.

3. Keith Mitchell

You can count the number of drivers that are better than Mitchell on one hand. It’s Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Cameron Young, Im and that’s about it. Obviously driving doesn’t lead to victories, but with all the focus on distance in the modern PGA Tour game, it’s a skill that, if you’re better than nearly everyone in the world at, you’re going to contend for some golf tournaments. Mitchell put up six top 12s in 2022 and improved his tee-to-green game overall. If that happens again in 2023, he’s going to snag a victory.

4. Collin Morikawa

This a strange name to have on this list considering he’s a two-time major champion and one of the most prolific early-career winners on the PGA Tour in its history. Still, there was some angst during the back half of 2022 about Morikawa’s lack of wins. This happens often when top players come into a given year off an incredible run and fail to win a tournament. Still, there should not be panic for Morikawa. Consider that he ranked sixth in the world in ball-striking in 2022, and the two players below him and five above him combined for 18 wins. The adulation for Morikawa probably went a bit too far in 2021, but now it has completely swung the other way to the point that he’s one of the more underrated players in the world going into 2023.

5. Will Zalatoris

Again, I’m not sure the No. 7 player in the world can be considered underrated, but Zalatoris’ ball-striking has been so good (No. 1 in the world in 2022) and he’s had so many near-misses (nine top fives in 2021-2022 but just one victory) that he has to be on this list. He could win three times in 2023, and nobody would be surprised.

6. Matt Fitzpatrick

Perhaps my favorite stat in golf is that Fitzpatrick has improved his strokes gained in each of his last 11 seasons. That is remarkable and not something I imagine has happened very often. The result is that he has turned into — along with Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele — one of the most complete players in the world. He gained at least 0.38 strokes per round in each of the four major categories last season and is the caliber of ball-striker now that results in becoming the No. 1 player in the world.

7. Jon Rahm

Another strange name to have on this list, but I’m not positive everyone understands just how elite Rahm is. He basically wins three times a year every year without fail, and his strokes gained numbers are astonishingly consistent (between 2.0-2.4 in five of the last six seasons). One of these years, the luck will fall his way a bit, and he’ll win five times including a major or two. I don’t know if that will happen in 2023, but his statistical profile suggests that it will at some point, and whenever it does it’s almost certain that Rahm is going to have one of the great seasons in the modern era.

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Tiger Woods was supposed to be the headliner, and he’ll still be on site, but players like Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler will be the focus at the 2022 Hero World Challenge. Woods was expected to return to the course for the first time since The Open in June, but a flare-up of plantar fasciitis forced him to pull out Monday. His event at Albany Golf Club in The Bahamas benefits the Tiger Woods Foundation, and six of the world’s top 10 golfers will compete starting Thursday. Rahm and Scheffler will be joined by fellow major champions like Justin Thomas, Matt Fitzpatrick, Jordan Spieth and Collin Morikawa. Viktor Hovland also will be in the Hero World Challenge 2022 field to defend his title. He shot 6-under 66 in the final round last year at Albany to edge Scheffler by one stroke. Morikawa went into Sunday with a six-stroke lead but ended up in a tie for fifth. Woods still expects to compete in two exhibitions next month – The Match on Dec. 10 and the PNC Championship alongside son Charlie from Dec. 17-18.     

Rahm, who won this tournament in his debut in 2018 and was the 2019 runner-up, is the 5-1 favorite in the latest 2022 Hero World Challenge odds from Caesars Sportsbook. Scheffler (8-1), Finau (9-1) and Xander Schauffele (10-1) also are expected to be top contenders in the Hero World Challenge 2022 field. Hovland (12-1), Thomas (12-1) and Fitzpatrick (14-1) are among more than a dozen golfers priced shorter than 20-1. Before locking in any 2022 Hero World Challenge picks or golf bets, you need to see the PGA Tour predictions, best bets and sleeper picks from SportsLine golf insider Patrick McDonald.

After spending time at FanSided and NBC Sports EDGE, McDonald joined CBS Sports as a golf writer in the spring of 2022. Now covering the sport from a broader perspective, McDonald still likes to dip his toes into the betting pools on a weekly basis on the PGA Tour. 

He takes a measured approach to his outright selections and finished the 2021-22 season up 42 units on those plays, having hit Cameron Smith (22-1) at the Tournament of Champions, Hudson Swafford (250-1) at The American Express, Joaquin Niemann (70-1) at the Genesis Invitational and Justin Thomas (66-1) live at the PGA Championship.

McDonald is having a profitable 2022-23 season in every category, and he nailed this month’s Houston Open, backing Finau at 25-1. The expert has been on the money on his matchup plays and cashed in huge on Brendan Steele (80-1) as the first-round leader at the Zozo Championship. Anyone who followed McDonald’s advice has cashed in huge.

Now, McDonald has studied the 2022 Hero World Challenge field and is locking in his best bets, best value and favorites to avoid. You can head to SportsLine now to see all his PGA picks and predictions.  

Top 2022 Hero World Challenge expert picks

In one shocking pick, McDonald is fading Sam Burns (16-1) despite the 26-year-old’s performance in his debut and throughout last season. Burns won three tournaments in 2021-22, and he tied for third in his first appearance at Albany last year. But the last we saw him was at the Houston Open, where he withdrew after a first-round 77. He hit four of 13 fairways and six of 18 greens there, and his ball-striking has been off for a while now. “Burns hasn’t been the same since the summer,” McDonald says, and he has finished in the top-10 just once since June.   

On the flip side, this is a ball-striker’s course, and there are plenty of great ones in the field, but Rahm is probably the best. He won the DP World Tour Championship two weeks ago, his second European victory since the 2021-22 PGA Tour season ended. He has finished in the top in two other tournaments since then, and the world’s fifth-ranked golfers seems primed to make a run at a return to No. 1. The Spaniard led the tour in strokes gained off the tee last season and was third in greens in regulation. He hasn’t played at Albany since he was the runner-up in 2019. See who else to pick at the Hero World Challenge here.      

How to make 2022 Hero World Challenge golf picks

Before this week’s PGA Tour event at Albany, McDonald has locked in his best bets for the 2022 Hero World Challenge. He is targeting an overlooked star to win who brings excellent value given his course history. The expert says this golfer is the best in the field in terms of strokes gained and should continue to excel on this seaside course. You can only find out who it is, and see the rest of McDonald’s picks and PGA Tour analysis, at SportsLine.

So which 2022 Hero World Challenge picks should you target? Which golfer brings excellent value in this stacked Hero World Challenge 2022 field? Check out the odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Patrick McDonald’s top picks for Hero World Challenge 2022, all from the expert who nailed this month’s Houston Open, and find out.

Hero World Challenge odds, field, top contenders

See full Hero World Challenge picks, predictions, best bets here
Jon Rahm 5-1
Scottie Scheffler 8-1
Tony Finau 9-1
Xander Schauffele 11-1
Justin Thomas 11-1
Viktor Hovland 12-1
Matt Fitzpatrick 12-1
Tommy Fleetwood 16-1
Sungjae Im 16-1
Cameron Young 18-1
Jordan Spieth 18-1
Tom Kim 18-1
Collin Morikawa 18-1
Sam Burns 18-1
Shane Lowry 20-1
Max Homa 25-1
Billy Horschel 30-1
Corey Conners 35-1
Tiger Woods 40-1 (withdrew due to plantar fasciitis)
Kevin Kisner 60-1

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The Hero World Challenge will close out the PGA Tour’s calendar year with 20 of the world’s top players, and all eyes will be on host Tiger Woods. The 15-time major champion will play in the tournament at Albany Golf Course in The Bahamas for the first time since 2019. He played in only three majors last season as he built strength following a serious car crash in February of 2021. Woods last played at The Open Championship in June. He will be joined in the Hero World Challenge 2022 field by 2022 major champions Scottie Scheffler, Matt Fitzpatrick and Justin Thomas and other PGA Tour stars like Jon Rahm, Collin Morikawa and Jordan Spieth. Viktor Hovland is the defending champion, and he edged Scheffler by one stroke after shooting a 6 under 66 in the final round to finish 18 under. Morikawa, who could have taken over as world No. 1 with a victory, entered the final round with a six stroke lead but went 4 over to tie for fifth.

The latest 2022 Hero World Challenge odds list Rahm, who won the tournament by four strokes in his debut back in 2018, as the 5-1 favorite. Not too far behind are Scheffler (8-1), Thomas (10-1), Tony Finau (10-1) and Xander Schauffele (10-1). The majority of golfers are 20-1 or shorter, with Woods listed as a 40-1 longshot, only ahead of Kevin Kisner, who was invited on a sponsor exemption. Before locking in any 2022 Hero World Challenge picks or golf bets, you need to see the PGA Tour predictions, best bets and sleeper picks from SportsLine golf insider Patrick McDonald.

After spending time at FanSided and NBC Sports EDGE, McDonald joined CBS Sports as a golf writer in the spring of 2022. Now covering the sport from a broader perspective, McDonald still likes to dip his toes into the betting pools on a weekly basis on the PGA Tour. 

He takes a measured approach to his outright selections and finished the 2021-22 season up 42 units on those plays, having hit Cameron Smith (22-1) at the Tournament of Champions, Hudson Swafford (250-1) at The American Express, Joaquin Niemann (70-1) at the Genesis Invitational and Justin Thomas (66-1) live at the PGA Championship.

McDonald is having a profitable 2022-23 season in every category, and he nailed this month’s Houston Open, backing Finau at 25-1. The expert has been on the money on his matchup plays and cashed in huge on Brendan Steele (80-1) as the first-round leader at the Zozo Championship. Anyone who followed McDonald’s advice has cashed in huge.

Now, McDonald has studied the 2022 Hero World Challenge field and is locking in his best bets, best value and favorites to avoid. You can head to SportsLine now to see all his PGA picks and predictions.  

Top 2022 Hero World Challenge expert picks

One shocking pick from McDonald: The expert is fading Sam Burns (16-1) despite his three victories last season and a T-3 here. “Burns hasn’t been the same since the summer,” the expert says. The 26-year-old won the Charles Schwab in May and finished in the top five at the Canadian Open in June, but has one top-10 finish since then. That came at the CJ Cup, where his putter helped him go 11 under par to tie for seventh. Burns is 226th in greens in regulation and 146th in strokes gained around the green, so until those improve, his putter can’t save him.  

On the other hand, the expert knows excellent ball-strikers are the players who tend to win in Albany, and Rahm is among the world’s best. The Spaniard tied for fourth in strokes gained total last season after leading the tour the previous two years. He also comes off a victory at the DP World Tour Championship – a victory McDonald cashed at 10-1 in his picks last week  – and has been in the top five in all four worldwide events since the PGA Tour’s Tour Championship. Rahm last played Albany in 2019, finishing second at 17 under in his attempt to defend his title. See who else to pick at the Hero World Challenge here.      

How to make 2022 Hero World Challenge golf picks

Before this week’s PGA Tour event at Albany, McDonald has locked in his best bets for the 2022 Hero World Challenge. He is targeting an overlooked star to win who brings excellent value given his course history. The expert says this golfer is the best in the field in terms of strokes gained and should continue to excel on this seaside course. You can only find out who it is, and see the rest of McDonald’s picks and PGA Tour analysis, at SportsLine.

So which 2022 Hero World Challenge picks should you target? Which golfer brings excellent value in this stacked Hero World Challenge 2022 field? Check out the odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Patrick McDonald’s top picks for Hero World Challenge 2022, all from the expert who nailed this month’s Houston Open, and find out.

Hero World Challenge odds, field, top contenders

See full Hero World Challenge picks, predictions, best bets here
Jon Rahm 5-1
Scottie Scheffler 8-1
Tony Finau 9-1
Xander Schauffele 11-1
Justin Thomas 11-1
Viktor Hovland 12-1
Matt Fitzpatrick 12-1
Tommy Fleetwood 16-1
Sungjae Im 16-1
Cameron Young 18-1
Jordan Spieth 18-1
Tom Kim 18-1
Collin Morikawa 18-1
Sam Burns 18-1
Shane Lowry 20-1
Max Homa 25-1
Billy Horschel 30-1
Corey Conners 35-1
Tiger Woods 40-1
Kevin Kisner 60-1

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Jon Rahm began the week sounding off about the Official World Golf Rankings. He ended it by collecting all the points available at the DP World Tour Championship and taking his third title of the season and third DP World Tour Championship in the last six editions of the event.

Rahm was adamant early in the week about how beating a handful of the best players in the world at the DP World Tour Championship was more difficult than beating a whole host of average players at the RSM Classic. Rahm received 22 points for beating Rory McIlroy, Matt Fitzpatrick, Shane Lowry, Tommy Fleetwood, Tyrrell Hatton and Viktor Hovland, while whoever wins the RSM later in the day on the PGA Tour side will receive 38 points.

Rahm went against his own logic and made beating the top players — there were seven others in the field who rank in the top 30 in the OWGR — look rather easy. After a 70-66-65 start, Rahm shot 67 on Sunday while playing alongside U.S. Open champion Fitzpatrick. Combined, those two have now won five of the last seven DP World Tour Championships.

After going out in 33, Rahm came home in 34 for the trophy. At 20 under, he beat Hatton and Alex Noren by two and McIlroy by four.

“Because of COVID I never got a chance to defend my 2019 title, and even though I decided not to come last year, I came with the mentality that, well, nobody beat me in the last two years, so they are going to have to beat me again,” Rahm said.

Rahm has won this tournament now in three of the last four times he’s teed it up. He is 72 under and has defeated 212 of 217 competitors in those four starts. As referenced, he did not play it in 2020 as the defending champion nor did he make it over last year for the 2021 edition.

Rahm’s point about how OWGR points at the top of small-field events (there were only 50 golfers playing this week in Dubai) is legitimate. And while this is not the space to get into a deep dissection of the Official World Golf Rankings, I don’t believe there should be as much disparity between points allotted to the winner of an event where you have to beat seven other top 30 players and points allotted to the winner of an event where (no matter how many golfers were in the field) Brian Harman was the favorite.

Regardless, Rahm is not short on OWGR points. After taking the Mexico Open, Spanish Open and this event, he remains firmly in the top five in the world going into 2023 and has plenty of hype around him going into next year given how he finished this one. In each of the last six years, Rahm has won either two or three OWGR events. He is also the first player to win this particular event three times, and that touches off a run of seven events in 2022 in which his worst finish was T15 and the other six were in the top eight.

Rahm has primarily been buoyed by his putter during that stretch, a club that let him down earlier in 2022. This week in Dubai was no different as he finished second in the field in strokes gained putting en route to the victory.

“Honestly I cannot believe I shot 12 under with how badly I hit it off the tee on the weekend,” Rahm said. “I was just able to manage really well. I think a lot of those times when I pitched out, my wedge game saved me. On the greens on the weekend, I don’t know what my stats were. But inside 10 feet I was really, really, really solid, and that’s always going to carry forward. Any time I was on the fairway, my iron game felt great.

“I stayed aggressive and picked my battles, and again, I think I shot as low as I could have shot on the weekend to get this one.”

Despite the victory, Rahm fell short in the season-long DP World Tour points race where McIlroy, who came into this week ranked No. 1 on that list, went on to win. For McIlroy, it’s his fourth season-long title on the European side to match three FedEx Cups on the PGA Tour. However, this year marks the first time McIlroy has won both season-long races in the same year.

“It’s been seven years since I’ve last done it [on the DP World Tour],” McIlroy said. “Obviously this is my fourth one but it’s been a while. I’ve won three FedEx Cups since the last time I won, which was the Race to Dubai back then.

“It means a lot. … I was a model of consistency the whole way through the year. A lot of top finishes. I think my worst finish of the European Tour events I played this year was 12th at the start of the year in Abu Dhabi. A really consistent season putting in good performances. Would have been nice to get one win in there at the end of the year here. But Jon obviously played an incredible tournament and fully deserved it.

“[I’m] really proud of my year, and excited for 2023.”

“I’m as complete a golfer as I feel like I’ve ever been, and hopefully I can continue on that path,” he added.

Since 2011, there have been 22 total season-long points titles available on the DP World Tour and PGA Tour, and McIlroy has remarkably won seven of them. He finished the year with 13 top-eight finishes in his last 16 starts worldwide.

Fleetwood and Fitzpatrick rounded out the top five in Dubai as the DP World Tour season came to a close.

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