The 2023 golf year is just around the corner, and it’s time to evaluate where the best players in the world stand going as the new season unfolds. Depending on where you look, most players are properly rated, but there are always those who are either a bit overrated because of recent conquests or a bit underrated because it’s been a while since they raised a trophy (or perhaps for other reasons).

I put together a list of players underrated by the golf community heading into 2023. It includes some serial candidates (Keith Mitchell and Sungjae Im) but also some surprises (Collin Morikawa and Jon Rahm). This is not meant to be a list of players who have an equal chance of doing something great in 2023 but rather a list of players I believe will, over the next 12 months, perform at a level beyond the current expectations folks have for them.

Here’s a look at seven golfers I pinpointed with evidence for why they are currently being underrated and have a chance to thrive in 2023.

1. Sungjae Im

Arguably the best player in the world who didn’t win anywhere in 2022. Im put together three runner-up finishes, six other top-12 finishes and had the best strokes gained number (1.6) of any golfer who did not have a victory in 2022. At just 24, he still has room to grow, too. He’s improved statistically in six of his last seven seasons, and I think he wins one-to-three times in 2023 and contends for at least one major championship.

2. Aaron Wise

He’s been a sexy “this guy could be on the U.S. Ryder Cup team next year” pick over the last few months, but there is plenty of evidence to back that up. Wise is a tremendous ball-striker, who seemingly solved his putting woes in 2022. It resulted in five top-15 finishes, including at big boy events like the CJ Cup and the Memorial. Similar to Im, he’s improved statistically in three of his last five seasons, and a 2023 in which he wins a few times and gets himself to Rome is not out of the question.

3. Keith Mitchell

You can count the number of drivers that are better than Mitchell on one hand. It’s Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Cameron Young, Im and that’s about it. Obviously driving doesn’t lead to victories, but with all the focus on distance in the modern PGA Tour game, it’s a skill that, if you’re better than nearly everyone in the world at, you’re going to contend for some golf tournaments. Mitchell put up six top 12s in 2022 and improved his tee-to-green game overall. If that happens again in 2023, he’s going to snag a victory.

4. Collin Morikawa

This a strange name to have on this list considering he’s a two-time major champion and one of the most prolific early-career winners on the PGA Tour in its history. Still, there was some angst during the back half of 2022 about Morikawa’s lack of wins. This happens often when top players come into a given year off an incredible run and fail to win a tournament. Still, there should not be panic for Morikawa. Consider that he ranked sixth in the world in ball-striking in 2022, and the two players below him and five above him combined for 18 wins. The adulation for Morikawa probably went a bit too far in 2021, but now it has completely swung the other way to the point that he’s one of the more underrated players in the world going into 2023.

5. Will Zalatoris

Again, I’m not sure the No. 7 player in the world can be considered underrated, but Zalatoris’ ball-striking has been so good (No. 1 in the world in 2022) and he’s had so many near-misses (nine top fives in 2021-2022 but just one victory) that he has to be on this list. He could win three times in 2023, and nobody would be surprised.

6. Matt Fitzpatrick

Perhaps my favorite stat in golf is that Fitzpatrick has improved his strokes gained in each of his last 11 seasons. That is remarkable and not something I imagine has happened very often. The result is that he has turned into — along with Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele — one of the most complete players in the world. He gained at least 0.38 strokes per round in each of the four major categories last season and is the caliber of ball-striker now that results in becoming the No. 1 player in the world.

7. Jon Rahm

Another strange name to have on this list, but I’m not positive everyone understands just how elite Rahm is. He basically wins three times a year every year without fail, and his strokes gained numbers are astonishingly consistent (between 2.0-2.4 in five of the last six seasons). One of these years, the luck will fall his way a bit, and he’ll win five times including a major or two. I don’t know if that will happen in 2023, but his statistical profile suggests that it will at some point, and whenever it does it’s almost certain that Rahm is going to have one of the great seasons in the modern era.

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The conditions were ripe for the picking at Albany in the third round of the 2022 Hero World Challenge. With players jockeying for position for much of the day, it was the overnight leader Viktor Hovland who ultimately made the biggest of moves. Carding 10 birdies against two bogeys, the world No. 12 enjoyed the round of the tournament, signing for an 8-under 64 to sit at 13 under and extend his lead to three strokes.

“It was great, I just kept making birdies,” said Hovland. “It was weird. Midway through the round I made a lot and it didn’t really feel like I had made that many. I kind of just kept playing golf and kept making putts. I stood on the 18th hole 9 under par. That was pretty sweet.”

Hovland was the beneficiary of some luck as well; players played the ball down for the first time all week. With Cameron Young, Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas and many more experiencing noticeable mud on their golf balls throughout their rounds, Hovland was able to avoid such fate.

The result for Hovland is a three-stroke lead as he attempts to successfully defend his crown from a year ago. Proving to be capable in this setting, the 25-year-old has already gone back-to-back on the PGA Tour — the 2020 and 2021 World Wide Technology Championship — and looks prime to do so once again.

The leader

1. Viktor Hovland (-13)

Entering the third round with a one-stroke lead, Hovland saw himself drift as many as two strokes behind during his front nine. Riding six back-nine birdies to the round of the tournament, he is now in an enviable spot three clear of the field. Crediting his putting and the calm conditions for the strong play, if the wind continues to lie down on Sunday, another low round could be in store.

“I kind of putted terrible the first two days, but I attribute that a lot to the wind,” said Hovland. “My strengths are really feeling the slope with the feet and when it starts blowing 30 mph, it’s hard to feel balanced enough to feel some of the nuances. Then as well, you have to play with the wind, so it was a lot easier today when it wasn’t as windy and I started everything on line and just felt like I was going to make everything.”

Other contenders

2. Scottie Scheffler (-10)

T3. Justin Thomas, Cameron Young (-8)

T5. Collin Morikawa, Xander Schauffele (-7)

7. Jon Rahm (-4)

8. Sepp Straka (-3)

T9. Sam Burns, Tony Finau (-2)

Morikawa entered the final round a year ago with a six-stroke advantage only to implode and be tracked down by Hovland. One year later, perhaps the two-time major champion can return the favor as he will begin Sunday six off the pace set by the Norwegian. While a victory won’t mean an ascension to world No. 1 like it would have last year, it would mark his first trip to the winner’s circle in more than a year.

“Just go low,” Morikawa said of his game plan for the final round. “I’ve got to make birdies and if I just kind of get things rolling like I did at the beginning of that kind of back nine, hopefully we can just put together 18 of those and post a low number. That’s all I can do really tomorrow. Can’t control those guys.”

Tiger steals show from broadcast booth

The 15-time major champion may not be competing this week, but that doesn’t mean Tiger Woods is out of the public eye. Joining the television broadcast on Saturday, Woods spoke on his motivational level to win again, his son Charlie and even revisited the emotional 150th Open at St. Andrews.

“It all of a sudden just started hitting me that I might not be back here again as a competitor and I started to kind of tear up a little bit,” Woods said of his memorable walk up the 18th hole at the Old Course. “I said, ‘Would you just suck it up and make a birdie here?'”

2022 Hero World Challenge updated odds and picks

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook

• Viktor Hovland: 4/6
• Scottie Scheffler: 14/5
• Justin Thomas: 11-1
• Cameron Young: 16-1
• Xander Schauffele: 20-1
• Collin Morikawa: 28-1

Three strokes is not insurmountable and Hovland is well-aware of this having come back from six in 2021. The dynamic between he and Scheffler in the final pair should be interesting as they were in a similar position at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, which ultimately went the way of the Texan. I think it will come down to just them two as it did last year, and the result will be the same with Hovland raising the trophy. 

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NAPA, Calif. (AP) — Justin Lower weathered the wind and birdied the 18th hole Saturday to take a one-shot lead into the final round of the season-opening Fortinet Championship.

Lower shot a 3-under 69 to get to 13 under at Silverado Resort & Spa, with his fifth birdie of the round giving him his first career 54-hole lead in his 29th start on the PGA Tour. He’s looking for his first tour victory.

Defending champion Max Homa and Danny Willett were a shot back after even-par 72s. Byeong Hun An had a 71 to get to 11 under.

While several players who went out early in the day posted low scores in good playing conditions, the course got much harder late in the day when the wind picked up to wreak havoc on the players.

Willett took several minutes on the eighth green clearing off blowing leaves just before making a birdie putt that put him briefly in the lead at 13 under.

Workers with leaf blowers came out on the next hole to keep the green clean but Willett made a double-bogey 7 after his approach shot flew past the green.

There were few birdie chances available with players happy with pars late in the day. That led to a very condensed leaderboard with eight players within three shots of the lead headed into Sunday.

An moved into a one-shot lead when he hit a solid tee shot on the par-3 15th came and then made a birdie from about 6 feet to get to 13 under. But he gave it back and more with a double bogey in the par-5 16th when his second shot got caught near the root of a tree.

That opened the door for Lower, who put his second shot on the par-5 18th just off the green and then made the short birdie putt.

It’s been quite a few weeks for Lower, who appeared to lose his tour card after three-putting the final home of the Wyndham Championship for a bogey when he only needed a par to remain in he top 125. But after more defections to the LIV Tour, Lower moved back into the top 125 and is taking advantage of it in the first tournament of the new season.

Conditions aren’t expected to be much better in the final round, which has already been altered by an ominous forecast with rain and wind. The leaders will tee off several hours earlier than scheduled with the final round featuring threesomes off split tees.

Davis Thompson and Harrison Endycott shot the low rounds of the day with 65s that left Harrison in a four-way tie for fifth place with Paul Haley II, Matt Kuchar and Adam Svensson. Endycott was a stroke behind in a four-way tie for ninth.

Endycott the first player out on the course and played as a single in his first career tournament make the cut with a birdie on the the final hole of the second round. He overcame a broken driver early in that round and was happy to have all of his clubs available Saturday.

“Definitely helps when you’ve got a driver in the bag after yesterday’s shenanigans with the cracked driver face,” he said. “This golf course is tough hitting 3-wood everywhere. So it was nice to get freed up, played some good golf today.”

Haley, who had gone 3,315 days between appearances on the tour from the 2013 Wyndham Championship and the start of this tournament, was tied with Thompson in the group at 10 under after a 66.

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