Can the toast of the fall become the major championship (or elevated event) debutante of the spring? That’s the question when it comes to Tom Kim, winner of two post-Open Championship events on the PGA Tour and individual champion (if there was one) of the Presidents Cup in September.

Kim has captivated pretty much everyone who encountered him with not only his buttery approach shots and deft short game, but an electricity that is rare in the golf world. His aura, it seems, is nearly as singular and nonreplicable as his game. 

He is, without question, the best youngest star in golf. The 20-year-old (he won’t be 21 until the U.S. Open at Los Angeles Country Club) is ranked No. 15 in the world and on the radar of even the very best players in the world.

Kim is a bit of an oddity, too. In a world where many of the top young players are making their way with distance and speed, Kim is not that long off the tee. Last year, he didn’t have enough rounds to qualify, but his average drive of 301.1 yards would have been T92 on the PGA Tour, and his club head speed of 110.09 would have ranked 177th. This is not the statistical profile of somebody ranked in the top 20 in the world six months removed from his teenage years.

And yet, the thing Kim does best is perhaps the lost art of winning. He wins a lot. In 81 starts in Official World Golf Ranking events, Kim has eight wins. That’s an enormous number that, while buoyed a bit by playing often on lesser tours, cannot be immediately dismissed because Kim has also won twice in 20 starts on the PGA Tour.

In other words, his winning percentage on the best tour in the world (10%) is actually slightly better than his winning percentage on every other tour in the world (9.8%).

I recently joked that Tom Kim is going to be the richest golfer who has ever lived, which is fun to think about until you realize it actually might not be a joke. The PGA Tour floated a document earlier this year that showed how Jim Furyk (17 wins, one major) would have made more than $600 million in earnings — if his career had started in 2023 — from a variety of different PGA Tour revenue streams.

I’m not saying Kim is going to have Furyk’s career, but if he does, he’s probably going down as the richest golfer of all time (on-course earnings only, of course).

All of this begs the obvious question of just how good Kim can be: What is Tom Kim’s ceiling?

Some incredible comps from Data Golf gets things started: Adam Scott in 2001, Jon Rahm in 2015, Joaquin Niemann in 2019, Sungjae Im in 2018, Jason Day in 2008, and Rickie Fowler in 2009. It also throws in Kevin Na in 2004 and Ryo Ishikawa in 2012.

Though I’m enamored with Kim’s presence and his sense of the moment, I tend to believe he’s a bit overvalued right now. He exceeded his expected win total during the 2021-22 season (two worldwide wins, 0.79 expected wins), and he is doing so again in the 2022-23 season (one win, 0.55 expected wins). This is not everything, but if you dig a little deeper into his profile, it tells a story.

Kim’s problem is going to be ball-striking. He’s an elite iron player — like, really great — but he’s so short off the tee that it’s likely going to prohibit him from truly contending at the biggest events. While Kim is incredibly consistent off the tee — his driving accuracy would have ranked fourth last season if he’d qualified — he has trouble gaining strokes on the field because of his length.

This could change. We saw Matt Fitzpatrick transform his distance through speed training and win a U.S. Open because of it. As Kim is currently constituted, though, he is going to have to have extraordinary putting weeks to win golf tournaments. (He did, for the record, at both the Wyndham Championship and the Shriners in his two victories.) Of the top 150 players in the world who have won at least twice in 2022, Kim is by far the shortest player of that group, according to Data Golf.

Is that sustainable? It might be. A good present-day comp for Kim might be Cam Smith, who is extremely average off the tee and actually gained fewer strokes with his driver than Kim did over the last 12 months (mostly because he’s not as accurate).

If you pull the numbers back to the top 150 players ever over the last 10 years, we get an even better picture. Here are the names that look like Kim: Jim Furyk, Luke Donald, Zach Johnson, Graeme McDowell and Brandt Snedeker with maybe a bit of Jordan Spieth.

This group (outside of Spieth) is a great aim for somebody like Kim. I don’t know if he’s going to have the careers that any of them have had, but he certainly could absolutely have Matt Kuchar’s career. He could have Zach Johnson’s career. Can he go beyond that? Unless things change dramatically — and they might given that he’s 20! — that seems unlikely.  

On paper, he may look like Justin Thomas or Rory McIlroy — generational players. But, and not to bum you out because I actually love him, Tom Kim is likely not a generational player.

This has multiple implications for 2023. As the No. 15 player in the world, Kim is probably a bit overvalued. The second, which is related to the first, is that we should consider our expectations of him. Because he won when he did, and because he crushed at the Presidents Cup, some folks are going into this season believing that Kim can (or even will) win three times. However, with the elevated events schedule he’s almost certainly going to play, that’s unlikely.

Kim’s story should be (and is) celebrated. However, will have a much better picture after this season full of expectations and only the big-boy events of just what Tom Kim can be on the PGA Tour.

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Despite an attempt to find a backdoor into its players earning points on the Official World Golf Rankings by aligning itself with the little-known MENA Tour, LIV Golf continues to be denied such access for the moment. In a statement released Thursday, the OWGR said it will review the developments before making a decision, though that review will not reach its conclusion before the next two LIV events are completed.

The MENA Tour (Middle East and North Africa Tour) is a fledgling league with $75,000 purses that hasn’t hosted many events since the COVID-19 pandemic occurred. It is not notable on the list of relevant tours globally, but its members can earn OWGR points. LIV Golf, which presents 54-hole tournaments with no cuts and has thus been denied access to OWGR points, this week formed a “strategic alliance” with the MENA Tour.

The concept arrived upon by LIV Golf is for the MENA Tour to present LIV tournaments as “limited field events” under its banner, thus opening OWGR points to LIV golfers, many of whom are among the biggest stars in the game that chose to leave the PGA Tour for the guaranteed riches offered by the Saudi Arabia-backed league.

OWGR points allow golfers to stay relevant in the world rankings and qualify for major championships.

The OWGR responded to the request as such:

OWGR notes that the first two tournaments in [the MENA Tour’s newly submitted schedule] appeared to be the same as the LIV Golf Invitational Series tournaments in Bangkok and Jeddah. The communication from the MENA Tour included a starting field data file for the Bangkok tournament, confirming that to be the case.

A review of the changes to the MENA Tour is now underway by the OWGR.

Notice of these changes given by the MENA Tour is insufficient to allow OWGR to conduct the customary necessary review ahead of the LIV Golf Invitational Bangkok (7-9 October) and LIV Golf Invitational Jeddah (14-16 October).

Only after the review is complete will a decision be made on awarding points to the MENA Tour’s new “Limited Field Tournaments”, defined by the MENA Tour in its Regulations as “any MENA Tour-approved tournament, which comprises of a player field of less than 80 players”.

In some ways, this was a smart attempt by LIV to skirt the rules outlined by the OWGR. The top MENA Tour players get access to the Asian Tour, and the top Asian Tour players will receive spots in future LIV events, according to Sports Illustrated. The OWGR broadly requires OWGR-affiliated leagues to have mobility, and moving from the MENA Tour to the Asian Tour and then into LIV Golf would provide a mobility within tours that seemingly didn’t exist when LIV started. It’s a convoluted path, but it exists.

“I think from a player standpoint, it feels great to have everyone at LIV fighting so hard for the players and their best interests,” Phil Mickelson told SI. “I think for the World Golf Rankings, this is a great way to keep its credibility, while not bringing politics into the decision-making process. I think it’s good for all parties.”

This is certainly not a “no” from the OWGR, but it is not what LIV wanted to hear. Still, LIV is trying a variety of creative ways to obtain OWGR points. As time passes and more of the picture comes into view, it seems more possible than ever that they could obtain them. Whether that’s through the MENA Tour or the Asian Tour or by simply changing their format and their structure to better fit the OWGR stipulations, the pathway remains to be seen. However, given the caliber of players on the LIV roster, it would be surprising at this point if it did not eventually work itself out one way or another.

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