Jon Rahm will take a one-stroke lead into the final round of the DP World Tour Championship in Dubai as he seeks to win the DP World Tour’s season-ending event for a third time.

The Spaniard started the third round four strokes off the pace, but carded a bogey-free, seven-under 65 to move to the top of the leaderboard, one stroke ahead of Matt Fitzpatrick,  two ahead of two-time Alex Noren, and three ahead of world no.1 Rory McIlroy, who is projected to finish the season at the top of the DP World Tour rankings as he moved to a share of fourth place alongside Tyrrell Hatton on 12 under par. Hatton, who lead the field by two midway through the third round, dropped back after chalking up four bogeys on the back nine on Saturday to post a level-par 72.

Fitzpatrick could still end the year as European no.1 but would need to win the tournament tomorrow and for McIlroy to finish worse than second. A runner-up finish could also see the reigning US Open champion lift the Harry Vardon Trophy on Sunday night, but he would need McIlroy to finish worse than seventh.

Speaking after his excellent third round, Rahm said: “I don’t think I could have shot any lower today. I really got the most out the round. I wasn’t at my best off the tee, but I was still able to get some birdies out of some not so good situations. I didn’t hit any of the fairways on the par fives and still played them three under par, so I’ve got to be happy with that. I’m hoping I can be a little better off the tee tomorrow, and maintain my good play in the other parts of my game and have a smooth round like I did yesterday.”

McIlroy, who also fired a 65, said: I didn’t get off to a great start with a bogey at the first, but I hit two quality shots into two and was able to make eagle and bounced back from that.Overall, I just hit it in the fairway a bit more today, which made a big difference. I was able to get control of my approach shots and hit them close and make some easy birdies. So yeah, obviously I just need to do more of the same tomorrow and see where it takes me.

He added: “I’ve never won the FedExCup and and the European rankings in the same year, so it would be really nice to get that done. It’s been a wonderful year. I’ve played some really consistent golf. If I’m able to go out there tomorrow and shoot a good score and get the job done, it would be a really nice way to end what’s been a great year.”

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Matt Fitzpatrick leads the race to become Europe’s no.1 after carding an opening 65 at the DP World Tour Championship in Dubai.

The 28-year-old started the opening day of the season’s finale with five consecutive birdies, making two further gains in a bogey-free round as he bids to win this event for the third time. He is joined by Ryder Cup teammate Tyrrell Hatton, on seven under par at Jumeirah Golf Estates.

Hatton set the early clubhouse lead after carding eight birdies and dropping just one shot as he seeks a first win since his victory at the 2021 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship.

The pair sit one stroke ahead of Ryder Cup teammate Alex Noren, after the Swede fired a six under par round of 66. Spaniard Adri Arnaus is one stroke further back on five under par.

Fitzpatrick is now projected to finish at the top of the DP World Tour rankings after Rory McIlroy and Ryan Fox carded opening rounds of 71 and 73 respectively.

Fitzpatrick, who was delighted with his fast start, said: “It was a nice start to the day. I remember when I won this event in 2020 that I started with four birdies on the bounce, so get to five in a row was amazing and hope it provides some sort of omen. I think the most pleasing thing about today’s round was hitting 17 greens in regulation. I kept giving myself chances and I putted well as well.”

Hatton, who entered the tournament in 21st place in the DP World Tour points list and 29th in the world rankings, said: “Obviously it was a good day. I hit a lot of good shots and the putter was great, so I’m pretty happy with that start. Although my head’s a bit fried at the moment, as I dropped a shot at the last, which is never a good way to finish. It would be great to finish off the season on a high note, as apart from that good finish at Bay Hill, there really hasn’t been too much to get excited about to be honest. I think I’ve only missed two cuts this year, and had seven or eight top-10s, but I feel like I’ve been consistently very, very average this year.”

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Three major winners emerged as the favorites to win the DP World Tour Championship earlier this week, and one of them co-leads in Dubai after Round 1 as the DP World Tour season comes to a close. Matt Fitzpatrick, who has won two of the last six season-ending tournaments on this golf course, shot a 7-under 65 and is tied with Tyrrell Hatton after 18 holes of play.

For a while, it looked as if it might be even better than that. Fitzpatrick birdied his first five holes before cooling off and playing the next 13 in just 2 under. Still, it’s an ideal start for the reigning U.S. Open champion as he looks to cap what has been a spectacular year with a second win and, potentially, his first Harry Vardon trophy, given to the player who tops the DP World Tour’s season-long points race.

“I was laughing to be honest [about the hot start],” Fiztpatrick said. “I said to [caddie] Billy [Foster] yesterday, ‘When we won in 2020, didn’t we have four in a row?’ Then we did four in a row and we laughed about that, then I made a fifth. It was a nice start to the day.”

Hatton, too, had a nice start to his day. He birdied four of the first seven, and then four more after that before making his only bogey of the day (a six on the 18th hole). He fell into a tie with Fitzpatrick because of a mistake at the last but is still in a good spot to get what would be his first win since Abu Dhabi at the start of 2021.

“I’m surprised to hear it’s my lowest round to start with [at this event],” said Hatton. “Obviously it was a good day. Hit a lot of good shots. Putter was great. Kind of happy with that start. Although my head’s a bit fried at the moment. My mind is just raging at the last there. But it is what it is.”

Those two lead a resurgent Alex Noren by one and Adri Arnaus by two, but the bigger names and more feared players are further back. Tommy Fleetwood is 4 under; Jon Rahm is 2 under; pre-tournament favorite Rory McIlroy is 1 under; Shane Lowry is 1 over; and Viktor Hovland is 2 over. That’s a lot of ground for nearly everyone in this group to make up on two Ryder Cup-level players like Fitzpatrick and Hatton.

“I play well here,” said McIlroy. “[I was] 3 under through eight holes. I’m not — it’s not far away. It’s not as if there’s anything that I need to drastically work on. And yeah, thankfully there’s three rounds left, go out and shoot a good one tomorrow and be ready for the weekend.”

The silver lining for McIlroy is two fold. One, there’s plenty of time left to make up a lot of ground, and he’s perhaps the best ever on this golf course (although Fitzpatrick is terrific as well). Two, McIlroy only narrowly trails Fitzpatrick for the season-long points race. Even if Fitzpatrick wins, McIlroy can still win the race by finishing second in this field.

Regardless, the tone has been set by two Englishmen for this week’s tournament. Several other superstars are chasing, but running down one of Hatton and Fitzpatrick will be difficult enough. To get by two of them will be, if it happens, an extraordinary feat.

DP World Tour Championship Odds

• Matt Fitzpatrick: +230
• Tyrrell Hatton: +450
• Rory McIlroy: +750
• Alex Noren: 9-1
• Jon Rahm: 9-1
• Tommy Fleetwood: 11-1

Fitzpatrick and McIlroy have changed positions here. McIlroy was shorter than 3-1 to win coming into this week, and Fitzpatrick was 9-1 before his 65 in the first round. I’m hesitant about the players beyond Hatton because of how quality the top two are, and I’m glad to have picked Fitzpatrick at 9-1. However, if I have to take somebody outside of the top two, I’m going with Fleetwood, who is coming off a win last week in South Africa and just three back.

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This week’s DP World Tour Championship marks the end of the season on the DP World Tour and the conclusion of a very tumultuous year for that league. Amid an increased strategic alliance with the PGA Tour and the LIV Golf drama that has coursed up and down the tour, the focus has hardly been on the golf.

Still, there’s an opportunity for the focus to shift back to the course entirely with Rory McIlroy, Shane Lowry, Viktor Hovland, Matt Fitzpatrick, Tommy Fleetwood, Jon Rahm and Tyrrell Hatton teeing it up at Jumeirah Golf Estates in Dubai for a $10 million DP World Tour Championship purse and, additionally, the top spot on Europe’s season-long race (tantamount to the PGA Tour’s FedEx Cup).

Let’s take a look at a few things to know about this week’s finale in Dubai and set the stage for what could happen.

1. Down to seven

Though anyone in the field can win the DP World Tour Championship, the list of golfers who can win the season-long points race is down to seven. Despite playing just nine DP World Tour events this season, McIlroy leads the race narrowly over New Zealander Ryan Fox, who has played 23 events. Those two are the most in control of their own destiny in Dubai. Here are the scenarios:

• Rory McIlroy: If he wins this week or finishes ahead of the other six, he wins the season-long race
• Ryan Fox: Has to win or finish ahead of McIlroy (and everyone else) by a wide enough margin
• Matt Fitzpatrick: Has to finish in top two and have McIlroy finish worse than seventh and Fox not win
• Tommy Fleetwood: Has to win and have McIlroy finish worse than third and Fox worse than second
• Viktor Hovland: Has to win and have McIlroy finish worse than fourth and Fox worse than third
• Shane Lowry: Has to win and have McIlroy to finish worse than seventh, Fox worse than fifth and Fitzpatrick worse than second
• Adrian Meronk: Has to win and have McIlroy to finish worse than 16th, Fox worse than eighth and Fitzpatrick worse than second

The scenarios are complex for everyone other than McIlroy and Fox, and given how well McIlroy plays on this golf course (see below), he truly controls his own destiny in ways the other six do not.

2. No defending champion

Two-time major winner Collin Morikawa will not defend his title from last year. Morikawa said he has “some upcoming personal commitments”, and therefore won’t attempt to become the first since Henrik Stenson in 2013-14 to go back to back at the season-ending tournament.

3. Rory’s double

McIlroy has won three FedEx Cups and three season-long races on the European side, but he’s never held both at the same time. Considering the level at which he’s playing — 3.0 strokes gained per round since June 1, which is laugh-out-loud good — and with the FedEx Cup currently under his belt, this is probably his best opportunity to do something that has never been accomplished. In his last eight events worldwide, McIlroy has more wins (2) than finishes outside the top eight (1).

4. Matt Fitzpatrick’s magical ending

I’m not sure Fitzpatrick has gotten the credit he deserves for his 2022. He has 11 top 10s across all tours and has improved his strokes gained number for the 11th (!!) consecutive year. His U.S. Open title was a highlight, but it does feel as if he’s been a little lost in the shuffle since then. This is an opportunity to, like Morikawa a year ago, punctuate a fantastic season that included a major win with the best topper of all on the DP World Tour. Fitzpatrick has won two of the last six DP World Tour Championships (Rahm has two others), and to make it three of seven in this field would be extraordinary.

5. LIV Golf presence

There are LIV players in the field — Richard Bland and Adrian Otaegui will both tee it up — but none of them have a chance to win, which is not a scenario DP World Tour CEO Keith Pelley wants on his hands. What’s perhaps more interesting is that the No. 7 player in the points race, Thomas Pieters, is not teeing it up in Dubai. He announced in October that he was going to miss time because he and his wife were expecting their second child, so it’s likely that’s why he won’t be here. However, his name has recently been in the LIV rumor mill, which as we’ve seen with LIV, could be nothing at all but could end up being something. Only time will tell, though Pieters’ presence at the finale will certainly be missed after the great season he’s put together.

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